#比特币大崩盘即将来临吗？

这就是我的感受和首要问题。 2024 年，加密货币市场的回报非常糟糕，普遍的共识是是否会发生大崩盘。

Bitcoin price has remained a subject of concern among traders and investors, particularly with the recent market downturn and speculation about a possible crash. However, the founder of MN Capital has expressed optimism, reassuring investors that such fears are unfounded.

比特币价格仍然是交易者和投资者关注的话题，特别是在最近的市场低迷和对可能崩盘的猜测的情况下。然而，MN Capital 的创始人表达了乐观态度，向投资者保证这种担忧是没有根据的。

In his view, the current market fluctuations are part of normal cyclic movements and do not indicate a precursor to a large-scale crash.

他认为，当前的市场波动是正常周期性波动的一部分，并不预示着大规模崩盘的前兆。

Bitcoin price has shown resilience, rising by almost 1% in the day. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $55,636. This upward trend is observed despite the broader market backdrop and concerns over its further evolution.

比特币价格表现出韧性，当天上涨了近 1%。截至撰写本文时，BTC 交易价格为 55,636 美元。尽管存在更广泛的市场背景以及对其进一步演变的担忧，但仍观察到这种上升趋势。

Meanwhile, whale activity has once again shown interest in Bitcoin. On-chain data highlights that since September 1, these three whales have purchased about 2,814 BTCs. At an average price of $55,887 each, their total purchase is valued at approximately $157.3 million. These large purchases indicate a strong belief among major investors in the future value of Bitcoin, further bolstering the notion that a market crash is unlikely.

与此同时，鲸鱼活动再次表现出对比特币的兴趣。链上数据显示，自 9 月 1 日以来，这三只鲸鱼已购买了约 2,814 个 BTC。按每件平均价格 55,887 美元计算，他们的总购买价值约为 1.573 亿美元。这些大量购买表明主要投资者对比特币的未来价值抱有强烈信心，进一步强化了市场不太可能崩溃的观点。

Market Indicators Point to Stability Amidst Downtrend

市场指标显示下行趋势中保持稳定

Despite the current market status, particularly for Bitcoin, may not be as dire as it appears. The following charts show that the BTC price is still trading within a descending channel, indicating a potential trend reversal in the current bearish market.

尽管目前的市场状况，尤其是比特币的市场状况，可能并不像看上去那么可怕。下图显示，BTC价格仍在下降通道内交易，表明当前看跌市场可能出现趋势逆转。

Highlighting the possibility of a breakout, several experts and investors speculate on Bitcoin price rising above a critical resistance level, which is currently positioned slightly above $55,000.

一些专家和投资者推测比特币价格将升至关键阻力位之上，这凸显了突破的可能性，该阻力位目前略高于 55,000 美元。

As BTC whale activity continues to rise, investors observe that Bitcoin price is getting close to its resistance level in the current price charts. A breakout could lead to the price returning to the $60,000 range. However, some market participants remain cautious, viewing the current correction as a normal process in the Bitcoin market cycle and the foundation for further growth.

随着比特币鲸鱼活动持续增加，投资者观察到比特币价格正在接近当前价格图表中的阻力位。突破可能导致价格回到 60,000 美元区间。不过，一些市场参与者仍保持谨慎态度，认为当前的调整是比特币市场周期的正常过程，也是进一步增长的基础。

The founder of MN Capital noted that this is quite natural in cryptocurrencies. Although, the decrease of about 26% from its recent all-time high is not alarming. Therefore, it is a regular market going through natural cycles and not a prelude to a significant crash.

MN Capital 的创始人指出，这在加密货币中是很自然的。不过，较近期历史高点下降约 26% 并不令人担忧。因此，这是一个正在经历自然周期的正常市场，而不是重大崩盘的前奏。

Whales Signal Confidence Amid Fear and Greed Index Concerns

鲸鱼在恐惧和贪婪指数担忧中发出信心信号

Another clear indication that Bitcoin has a bright future is the accumulation of the large holders, the so-called “whales.” Whales are usually inclined to make long-term decisions, and the recent trends indicate their expectation of a comeback. Since early September, three whales have bought a lot of BTC, using the current low prices that the market offers after the correction.

比特币拥有光明前景的另一个明显迹象是大持有者（即所谓的“鲸鱼”）的积累。鲸鱼通常倾向于做出长期决定，最近的趋势表明他们期待卷土重来。自9月初以来，三只鲸鱼利用市场调整后提供的当前低价买入了大量比特币。

The Fear and Greed Index, an important tool to measure the market’s sentiment, is currently at 22 points, that is, the levels observed at the time of the FTX exchange crash in November 2022. This measure, which captures the sentiment of fear of the investors in the market, can be used to identify entry points by contrarian investors.

恐惧与贪婪指数是衡量市场情绪的重要工具，目前为 22 点，即 2022 年 11 月 FTX 交易所崩盘时观察到的水平。该指标反映了人们对市场的恐惧情绪。市场上的投资者可以利用逆向投资者来确定切入点。

The founder of MN Capital pointed this out in his analysis, stating that even though the sentiment is negative, the market fundamentals are much better than the ones that existed during the FTX crisis.

MN Capital创始人在分析中指出了这一点，他表示，尽管市场情绪消极，但市场基本面比FTX危机期间要好得多。

In his view, it could be unwise to have a negative outlook as the price of Bitcoin currently stands at roughly $55,000, which is still far from the record high. This year’s environment is much better than last year’s when the market faced significant losses due to major crashes. Institutional interest has been growing, and the macroeconomic situation is more favourable.

在他看来，持有负面前景可能是不明智的，因为比特币的价格目前约为 55,000 美元，距离历史高点还很远。今年的环境比去年好得多，去年市场因重大崩盘而遭受重大损失。机构兴趣不断增强，宏观经济形势更加有利。

Looking Ahead: Market Dynamics and Bitcoin’s Next Move

展望未来：市场动态和比特币的下一步行动

As such, many see key markets’ weak economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts as positive for Bitcoin’s price as they may see fresh liquidity injection. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well when there is increased liquidity. Many analysts have pointed out that a massive inflow of liquidity from the US and other international markets could catalyze the next bull run of Bitcoin.

因此，许多人认为主要市场经济增长疲弱和美联储潜在降息对比特币价格有利，因为他们可能会看到新的流动性注入。从历史上看，当流动性增加时，比特币表现良好。许多分析师指出，来自美国和其他国际市场的大量流动性流入可能会催化比特币的下一轮牛市。

Also, the current market situation has been compared to the 2019-2020 period, during which external conditions like the COVID-19 pandemic boosted the bull market in Bitcoin, which had a rough few days.

此外，目前的市场状况与 2019-2020 年期间进行了比较，在此期间，像 COVID-19 大流行这样的外部条件推动了比特币的牛市，比特币的牛市经历了几天的艰难。

Although there is no such black swan event in place at the moment, most experts believe that macroeconomic indicators, such as increasing inflation and overall economic instability, may well spark the next rally of Bitcoin.

尽管目前还没有出现这样的黑天鹅事件，但大多数专家认为，通胀加剧和整体经济不稳定等宏观经济指标很可能引发比特币的下一次反弹。

The founder of MN Capital believes that this cycle may be the most natural of the previous ones because it is not associated with a particular event but with the general development of the market. According to the author’s current assessment, the risk of a sudden and severe market crash is also negligible. However, such a price correction may lead to significant gains due to increased liquidity.

MN Capital创始人认为，这个周期可能是之前周期中最自然的一个，因为它与特定事件无关，而是与市场的总体发展相关。根据笔者目前的评估，市场突然严重崩盘的风险也可以忽略不计。然而，由于流动性增加，这种价格调整可能会带来显着收益。