比特幣的公牛循環：將波浪騎到$ 145,000？

分析師眼球幣價格目標高達14.5萬美元，這是歷史模式，OnChain信號和看漲技術的推動力。這裡是“上升”嗎？

Bitcoin's got everyone buzzing, from seasoned traders to crypto newbies. With analysts throwing around price targets as high as $145,000, the question on everyone's mind is: Are we in for another wild bull cycle?

從經驗豐富的商人到加密新手，比特幣引起了所有人的嗡嗡聲。隨著分析師的價格目標高達145,000美元，每個人的想法是：我們是否參加了另一個狂野的牛週期？

"Uptober" is Real

“向上”是真實的

October has historically been a good month for Bitcoin, earning the nickname "Uptober." CoinGlass data shows an average October return of 28.5% between 2013 and 2024. If history repeats itself, that means that from the monthly opening of $114,080, Bitcoin price could rise by an average of 28.5% to $141,544 by October 31.

從歷史上看，十月對於比特幣來說是一個不錯的月份，贏得了“ Uptober”的綽號。 Coinglass數據顯示，2013年至2024年之間的平均10月回報率為28.5％。如果歷史重演，這意味著，從每月開盤的114,080美元開盤開始，比特幣價格平均可以上漲28.5％，到10月31日的141,544美元。

This trend isn't just a flash in the pan. We've seen it across different market cycles, from the early hype of 2013 to the DeFi craze of 2021. Even recent years, with ETF approvals in the mix, have reinforced this bullish pattern.

這種趨勢不僅僅是鍋中的閃光燈。我們已經在不同的市場週期中看到了它，從2013年早期到2021年的狂熱熱潮。即使是最近幾年，隨著ETF的批准，我們也加強了這種看漲的模式。

Onchain Signals Point to $140,000

OnChain信號指向140,000美元

Glassnode's MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands offer a data-driven view on Bitcoin’s next hurdle, pegging resistance at $140,000—the uppermost band signaling peak euphoria.

GlassNode的MVRV極端偏差定價頻帶對比特幣的下一個障礙提供了數據驅動的視圖，將阻力固定為140,000美元，這是最高的帶信號峰值Euphoria。

The MVRV ratio, comparing market cap to realized cap, currently sits at a Z-Score of 2.1, indicating bullish but not overbought conditions. The $139,300 level, at 1 standard deviation from the realized price, historically marks cycle tops, like 2017’s $20,000 or 2021’s $69,000.

MVRV比較比較了市值與實現CAP的比率，目前處於2.1的Z分數，表明看漲但沒有過多的條件。 $ 139,300的水平，與實現價格的標準偏差為1個，歷史上標誌著周期的頂部，例如2017年的20,000美元或2021美元的69,000美元。

Technical Analysis: Bull Flag Breakout

技術分析：牛旗突破

BTC price technicals show it gained momentum after breaking out of a bull flag pattern on the daily chart. Bitcoin broke above the upper boundary of the flag at $116,000 on Wednesday, last week, opening the way for a rally toward the pattern’s target at $145,400, or a 17% increase from the current price.

BTC價格技術表明，在每日圖表上突破了公牛旗模式後，它的動力就獲得了動力。上週，比特幣以116,000美元的價格在國旗的上邊界上方打破，這為該模式目標的集會開闢了道路，其目標是145,400美元，或者比目前的價格上漲了17％。

It is important to note that bull flags gave a 75% success rate: 2021’s $40,000 breakout hit $65,000 while 2024’s $50,000 flag reached $73,000.

重要的是要注意，牛旗獲得了75％的成功率：2021年的40,000美元突破達到了65,000美元，而2024年的50,000美元旗幟達到了73,000美元。

The Bearish Crab Pattern

看跌蟹模式

Crypto analyst Weslad pointed out the return of the Bearish Crab Pattern, formed on the daily chart. Back in 2021, this pattern preceded a price explosion that sent Bitcoin toward its $69,000 all-time high.

加密分析師Weslad指出了每日圖表上形成的看跌蟹模式的回歸。早在2021年，這種模式就在價格爆炸之前，將比特幣帶到了其69,000美元的歷史最高水平。

Targets to watch include a daily close above $124,545 (the Activation Trigger) and a "Buy The Dip Zone" between $118,000 and $120,000. Holding these levels could propel Bitcoin toward $136,000, with potential extensions to $147,000 or even $160,000.

要觀看的目標包括每天關閉$ 124,545（激活觸發器）和“購買浸區”在$ 118,000到$ 120,000之間。持有這些水平可能會將比特幣推向$ 136,000，潛在擴展到147,000美元甚至160,000美元。

However, a break below $107,000 would invalidate the bullish thesis, according to Weslad.

但是，據韋斯拉德（Weslad）稱，低於107,000美元的休息將使看漲論文無效。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, what's the takeaway? While nothing's guaranteed in the crypto world, several factors suggest Bitcoin could be gearing up for another leg up. Whether it's historical trends, onchain data, or technical patterns, the signs are there. Of course, always do your own research and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. But hey, if "Uptober" lives up to its name, we might just be toasting to some serious gains soon! Cheers to that!

那麼，收穫是什麼？儘管在加密貨幣世界中沒有任何保證，但有幾個因素表明比特幣可能正在為另一支腿做準備。無論是歷史趨勢，OnChain數據還是技術模式，都有跡象。當然，始終進行自己的研究，不要投資超出您負擔得起的損失。但是，嘿，如果“ Uptober”以其名字持有效果，我們可能很快就會敬酒！歡呼！