比特币的公牛循环：将波浪骑到$ 145,000？

分析师眼球币价格目标高达14.5万美元，这是历史模式，OnChain信号和看涨技术的推动力。这里是“上升”吗？

Bitcoin's got everyone buzzing, from seasoned traders to crypto newbies. With analysts throwing around price targets as high as $145,000, the question on everyone's mind is: Are we in for another wild bull cycle?

从经验丰富的商人到加密新手，比特币引起了所有人的嗡嗡声。随着分析师的价格目标高达145,000美元，每个人的想法是：我们是否参加了另一个狂野的牛周期？

"Uptober" is Real

“向上”是真实的

October has historically been a good month for Bitcoin, earning the nickname "Uptober." CoinGlass data shows an average October return of 28.5% between 2013 and 2024. If history repeats itself, that means that from the monthly opening of $114,080, Bitcoin price could rise by an average of 28.5% to $141,544 by October 31.

从历史上看，十月对于比特币来说是一个不错的月份，赢得了“ Uptober”的绰号。 Coinglass数据显示，2013年至2024年之间的平均10月回报率为28.5％。如果历史重演，这意味着，从每月开盘的114,080美元开盘开始，比特币价格平均可以上涨28.5％，到10月31日的141,544美元。

This trend isn't just a flash in the pan. We've seen it across different market cycles, from the early hype of 2013 to the DeFi craze of 2021. Even recent years, with ETF approvals in the mix, have reinforced this bullish pattern.

这种趋势不仅仅是锅中的闪光灯。我们已经在不同的市场周期中看到了它，从2013年早期到2021年的狂热热潮。即使是最近几年，随着ETF的批准，我们也加强了这种看涨的模式。

Onchain Signals Point to $140,000

OnChain信号指向140,000美元

Glassnode's MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands offer a data-driven view on Bitcoin’s next hurdle, pegging resistance at $140,000—the uppermost band signaling peak euphoria.

GlassNode的MVRV极端偏差定价频带对比特币的下一个障碍提供了数据驱动的视图，将阻力固定为140,000美元，这是最高的带信号峰值Euphoria。

The MVRV ratio, comparing market cap to realized cap, currently sits at a Z-Score of 2.1, indicating bullish but not overbought conditions. The $139,300 level, at 1 standard deviation from the realized price, historically marks cycle tops, like 2017’s $20,000 or 2021’s $69,000.

MVRV比较比较了市值与实现CAP的比率，目前处于2.1的Z分数，表明看涨但没有过多的条件。 $ 139,300的水平，与实现价格的标准偏差为1个，历史上标志着周期的顶部，例如2017年的20,000美元或2021美元的69,000美元。

Technical Analysis: Bull Flag Breakout

技术分析：牛旗突破

BTC price technicals show it gained momentum after breaking out of a bull flag pattern on the daily chart. Bitcoin broke above the upper boundary of the flag at $116,000 on Wednesday, last week, opening the way for a rally toward the pattern’s target at $145,400, or a 17% increase from the current price.

BTC价格技术表明，在每日图表上突破了公牛旗模式后，它的动力就获得了动力。上周，比特币以116,000美元的价格在国旗的上边界上方打破，这为该模式目标的集会开辟了道路，其目标是145,400美元，或者比目前的价格上涨了17％。

It is important to note that bull flags gave a 75% success rate: 2021’s $40,000 breakout hit $65,000 while 2024’s $50,000 flag reached $73,000.

重要的是要注意，牛旗获得了75％的成功率：2021年的40,000美元突破达到了65,000美元，而2024年的50,000美元旗帜达到了73,000美元。

The Bearish Crab Pattern

看跌蟹模式

Crypto analyst Weslad pointed out the return of the Bearish Crab Pattern, formed on the daily chart. Back in 2021, this pattern preceded a price explosion that sent Bitcoin toward its $69,000 all-time high.

加密分析师Weslad指出了每日图表上形成的看跌蟹模式的回归。早在2021年，这种模式就在价格爆炸之前，将比特币带到了其69,000美元的历史最高水平。

Targets to watch include a daily close above $124,545 (the Activation Trigger) and a "Buy The Dip Zone" between $118,000 and $120,000. Holding these levels could propel Bitcoin toward $136,000, with potential extensions to $147,000 or even $160,000.

要观看的目标包括每天关闭$ 124,545（激活触发器）和“购买浸区”在$ 118,000到$ 120,000之间。持有这些水平可能会将比特币推向$ 136,000，潜在扩展到147,000美元甚至160,000美元。

However, a break below $107,000 would invalidate the bullish thesis, according to Weslad.

但是，据韦斯拉德（Weslad）称，低于107,000美元的休息将使看涨论文无效。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, what's the takeaway? While nothing's guaranteed in the crypto world, several factors suggest Bitcoin could be gearing up for another leg up. Whether it's historical trends, onchain data, or technical patterns, the signs are there. Of course, always do your own research and don't invest more than you can afford to lose. But hey, if "Uptober" lives up to its name, we might just be toasting to some serious gains soon! Cheers to that!

那么，收获是什么？尽管在加密货币世界中没有任何保证，但有几个因素表明比特币可能正在为另一支腿做准备。无论是历史趋势，OnChain数据还是技术模式，都有迹象。当然，始终进行自己的研究，不要投资超出您负担得起的损失。但是，嘿，如果“ Uptober”以其名字持有效果，我们可能很快就会敬酒！欢呼！