比特幣（BTC-USD）似乎已經觸底

正如我上一篇文章所預期的那樣，比特幣（BTC-USD）在測試其 200 天簡單移動平均線後似乎已經觸底，與 9 月的情況大致相同，導致大幅反彈。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) appears to have bottomed after testing its 200-day Simple Moving Average in much the same way as it did in September, leading to a large rally.

比特幣（BTC-USD）在測試 200 天簡單移動平均線後似乎已經觸底，與 9 月的情況大致相同，導致大幅反彈。

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

Short-term resistance in the 60k area has been taken out rather easily:

60k 區域的短期阻力已被輕易突破：

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, Visual Chart

TheBullBear.com，視覺圖表

The next level of resistance is $65k.

下一個阻力位是 65,000 美元。

Sentiment continues to be relatively bearish...

市場情緒持續相對悲觀…

alternative.me

另類我

alternative.me

另類我

...with plenty of room to run before it becomes overly bullish on a historical basis...

....在歷史基礎上變得過於樂觀之前，還有足夠的運行空間...

alternative.me, Crypto Fear-Greed Index

Alternative.me，加密貨幣恐懼-貪婪指數

alternative.me, Visual Chart

Alternative.me，視覺圖表

Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that the figure of $100k is nothing more than psychological. There's no reason why that has to be a significant stopping point for the coming rally. A better projection is to $300k:

從月線圖來看，我們可以看到10萬美元這個數字只是心理作用。沒有理由認為這一定是即將到來的反彈的一個重要停止點。更好的預測是 30 萬美元：

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, Visual Chart

TheBullBear.com，視覺圖表

If you look left, you can see that after a similar corrective period, Bitcoin rallied 430% in 6 months to its current levels (and then corrected). A similar 6-month rally to the top of the pink channel would take it 365% higher to the area around $300k. This would complete a 5 wave bullish impulse move and set up another correction. At that point, monthly RSI would be into its upper resistance band.

如果你向左看，你會發現在經歷了類似的調整期後，比特幣在 6 個月內上漲了 430% 至當前水平（然後進行了調整）。類似的 6 個月反彈至粉紅色通道頂部將使其上漲 365%，達到 30 萬美元左右的區域。這將完成 5 浪看漲衝動走勢並啟動另一次修正。屆時，月度 RSI 將進入其上方阻力帶。

As the global economy transitions from Debt Monetarism into Intelligence Economics, new forms of value storage and transmission will be required to channel flows of value across the new economy. Bitcoin is V.1 of that new form of "money". There will be others. Now is a good time to start keeping our eyes out for the emergence of the new class of V.2 currency so we can get in on the ground floor.

隨著全球經濟從債務貨幣主義轉向情報經濟學，將需要新形式的價值儲存和傳輸來引導新經濟中的價值流動。比特幣是這種新形式「貨幣」的 V.1。還會有其他人。現在是開始關注新型 V.2 貨幣的出現的好時機，這樣我們就可以進入底層。

Please also see:

另請參閱：

Bitcoin: Bottoming Or Breaking?

比特幣：觸底還是突破？

Intelligence Economics: The Future Of Value Creation In The Era Of Technological Intelligence

智能經濟學：技術智能時代價值創造的未來