比特币（BTC-USD）似乎已经触底

正如我上一篇文章所预期的那样，比特币（BTC-USD）在测试其 200 天简单移动平均线后似乎已经触底，与 9 月份的情况大致相同，导致大幅反弹。

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) appears to have bottomed after testing its 200-day Simple Moving Average in much the same way as it did in September, leading to a large rally.

比特币（BTC-USD）在测试 200 天简单移动平均线后似乎已经触底，与 9 月份的情况大致相同，导致大幅反弹。

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

Short-term resistance in the 60k area has been taken out rather easily:

60k 区域的短期阻力已被轻松突破：

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, Visual Chart

TheBullBear.com，视觉图表

The next level of resistance is $65k.

下一个阻力位是 65,000 美元。

Sentiment continues to be relatively bearish...

市场情绪继续相对悲观……

alternative.me

另类我

alternative.me

另类我

...with plenty of room to run before it becomes overly bullish on a historical basis...

...在历史基础上变得过于乐观之前，还有足够的运行空间...

alternative.me, Crypto Fear-Greed Index

Alternative.me，加密货币恐惧-贪婪指数

alternative.me, Visual Chart

Alternative.me，视觉图表

Looking at the monthly chart, we can see that the figure of $100k is nothing more than psychological. There's no reason why that has to be a significant stopping point for the coming rally. A better projection is to $300k:

从月线图来看，我们可以看到10万美元这个数字只是心理作用。没有理由认为这一定是即将到来的反弹的一个重要停止点。更好的预测是 30 万美元：

TheBullBear.com, TradingView

TheBullBear.com，TradingView

TheBullBear.com, Visual Chart

TheBullBear.com，视觉图表

If you look left, you can see that after a similar corrective period, Bitcoin rallied 430% in 6 months to its current levels (and then corrected). A similar 6-month rally to the top of the pink channel would take it 365% higher to the area around $300k. This would complete a 5 wave bullish impulse move and set up another correction. At that point, monthly RSI would be into its upper resistance band.

如果你向左看，你会发现在经历了类似的调整期后，比特币在 6 个月内上涨了 430% 至当前水平（然后进行了调整）。类似的 6 个月反弹至粉红色通道顶部将使其上涨 365%，达到 30 万美元左右的区域。这将完成 5 浪看涨冲动走势并启动另一次修正。届时，月度 RSI 将进入其上方阻力带。

As the global economy transitions from Debt Monetarism into Intelligence Economics, new forms of value storage and transmission will be required to channel flows of value across the new economy. Bitcoin is V.1 of that new form of "money". There will be others. Now is a good time to start keeping our eyes out for the emergence of the new class of V.2 currency so we can get in on the ground floor.

随着全球经济从债务货币主义转向情报经济学，将需要新形式的价值存储和传输来引导新经济中的价值流动。比特币是这种新形式“货币”的 V.1。还会有其他人。现在是开始关注新型 V.2 货币的出现的好时机，这样我们就可以进入底层。

Please also see:

另请参阅：

Bitcoin: Bottoming Or Breaking?

比特币：触底还是突破？

Intelligence Economics: The Future Of Value Creation In The Era Of Technological Intelligence

智能经济学：技术智能时代价值创造的未来