比特幣（BTC）鯨魚在超流油中打開了$ 1000000000的短位置，針對近期校正

區塊鏈分析平台報導的這一大膽的舉動標誌著主要參與者的看跌前景，並引發了人們對比特幣近期價格行動的強烈猜測。

A cryptocurrency whale has made a massive $1 billion short position on Bitcoin (BTC) with 40x leverage on Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives exchange, according to blockchain analytics platforms.

根據區塊鏈分析平台的數據，一條加密貨幣鯨在比特幣（BTC）上佔據了10億美元的短期職位，其槓桿作用為40倍，這是一個分散的衍生品交換。

This signals a bearish outlook from a major player in the market and could have broader implications for Bitcoin’s near-term price action, which is currently facing pressure to break below $104,000.

這標誌著市場上主要參與者的看跌前景，並且可能對比特幣的近期價格行動具有更大的影響，該價格目前正面臨著突破104,000美元以下的壓力。

What Happened: Bitcoin Whale Opens $1 Billion Short Position

發生了什麼：比特幣鯨開放了10億美元的短職位

On-chain data from platforms like Look on chain and Alphractal show that the whale, known as Qwatio, deposited 2.3 million USDC to Hyperliquid and opened a 40x leveraged short position on 826 BTC, valued at around $1 billion, at a price of $105,168. The trade was executed around May 21.

諸如鍊上的鍊和字母等平台的鍊鍊數據表明，該鯨魚（稱為Qwatio）存放了230萬USDC，以超過流動性，並在826 BTC上打開了40倍的槓桿率，價值約10億美元，價格約為105,168美元。該交易是在5月21日左右執行的。

The whale’s liquidation price is estimated at $106,600, meaning a Bitcoin price surge above this level could wipe out the position. As of Friday morning, Bitcoin is trading at $104,885, down 0.45% in the last 24 hours, placing the trade in a precarious position.

鯨魚的清算價格估計為106,600美元，這意味著比特幣價格上漲以上水平可能會消除該職位。截至週五早上，比特幣的交易價格為104,885美元，在過去24小時內下跌0.45％，使交易處於不穩定的位置。

The identity of the whale remains pseudonymous, but their wallet activity suggests they are a sophisticated trader or institutional player with a history of large-scale trades. Unlike James Wynn, a well-known trader recently associated with massive long positions on Bitcoin (including a $1.25 billion long bet), this whale’s bearish stance contrasts with the broader bullish sentiment in the market.

鯨魚的身份仍然是假名的，但他們的錢包活動表明他們是一位具有大規模交易歷史的老練交易員或機構參與者。與詹姆斯·懷恩（James Wynn）是一位著名的交易者，最近與比特幣上的長期頭寸相關聯（包括12.5億美元的賭注）不同，這種看跌的立場與市場上更廣泛的看漲情緒形成鮮明對比。

This short position suggests that the whale anticipates a near-term correction in Bitcoin’s price, possibly driven by profit-taking after Bitcoin’s rapid rise above $100,000 or macroeconomic factors like U.S.-China trade tensions.

這個短期職位表明，鯨魚預計比特幣的價格會進行近期的更正，這可能是由於比特幣快速上升超過100,000美元以上或宏觀經濟因素（如美國 - 中國貿易張力）而造成的。

Where Is the Liquidation Price, and What Could Happen Next?

清算價格在哪裡，接下來會發生什麼？

Posts on X indicate that market makers may be “chasing” this short, aiming to close the position and trigger a short squeeze. A significant increase in buying pressure could pour more fuel on the fire, potentially pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high.

X上的帖子表明，做市商可能正在“追逐”這一短暫的，旨在關閉位置並引發短暫的擠壓。購買壓力的顯著增加可能會在大火上倒入更多的燃料，這可能會將比特幣推向新的歷史最高水平。

However, some traders believe that Bitcoin's recent price action suggests a double top pattern, which could lead to a deeper correction.

但是，一些交易者認為，比特幣最近的價格行動表明了雙重模式，這可能會導致更深入的更正。

"We might see a 30% chance of a pullback to $100,500 and a 15% probability of a flush to $95,800 if we break the neckline and the pennant support, setting the stage for a continuation toward the $97,000-$98,500 support range," a trader noted.

一位交易員指出：“如果我們打破領口和pennant的支撐，我們可能會看到30％的回調可能會撤回100,500美元，而15％的沖洗率達到95,800美元，這為持續的舞台邁向了$ 97,000- $ 98,500的支持範圍。”

The Formation of a Bearish M Chart Pattern

看跌m圖圖模式的形成

An M chart pattern, also known as a triple top, is formed when a security reaches a peak price three times in a relatively short period. This pattern is typically bearish and signals a potential reversal of the current uptrend.

當安全性在相對較短的時間內三倍達到峰值價格時，M圖模式（也稱為三重頂部）就會形成。這種模式通常是看跌，並表示當前上升趨勢的潛在逆轉。

The first top in this pattern occurred on January 5, 2025, when Bitcoin reached a high of $78,000 before pulling back to the $70,000 support level. The second top was formed on February 20, 2025, at a price of $76,000, marking the apex of a steeper rebound from the $60,000 support.

這種模式中的第一個最高點發生在2025年1月5日，當時比特幣達到78,000美元的最高點，然後退回到70,000美元的支持水平。第二個頂級於2025年2月20日成立，價格為76,000美元，標誌著從60,000美元的支持下的陡峭反彈的頂點。

After a third attempt to break above the $80,000 resistance, Bitcoin experienced a steeper decline, finally finding support at the $60,000 level. This final decline completed the M chart pattern, which is now being priced in by market makers.

在第三次嘗試超越了80,000美元的電阻之後，比特幣的下降幅度較大，最終在60,000美元的水平上找到了支持。最終下降完成了M圖表模式，該模式現在由做市商定價。

Moreover, traders are also discussing the possibility of a bearish pennant pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend with a 30% chance of pulling back to $100,500 or a 15% probability of a deeper flush to $95,800 if the pennant breaks down.

此外，貿易商還正在討論看跌佳餚模式的可能性，這可能表明看跌趨勢的延續，如果佳果分解，則有30％的機會將返回到100,500美元或15％的更深層次的沖洗量或15％的可能性。

"This pennant formation, if valid, suggests a continuation of the move down to 100.5 with a 30% probability or a deeper flush to 95.8 with a 15% probability if we break the pennant and the neckline."

“這種五角旗形成，如果有效，則表明，如果我們打破甲甘南和領口，則以30％的概率或更深的沖洗量向下移動至100.5，或更深的沖洗效果為95.8。”

The pennant pattern is formed by a converging set of price channels, which typically occurs during a period of low volatility. The pattern is usually named after the shape of the pennant, which can be rectangular, triangular, or trapezoidal.

五角旗模式由一組收斂的價格通道形成，通常發生在低波動性時期。該圖案通常以五角旗的形狀命名，該形狀可以是矩形，三角形或梯形的。

In the case of Bitcoin, the pennant pattern is being formed in the lower price channels, while the upper price channels are highlighting the pennant's height.

就比特幣而言，在較低的價格渠道中形成了五角旗模式，而高價渠道則突出了三角旗的高度。

The pattern is signaling a continuation of the broader downtrend that began in January when Bitcoin failed to close above the $107,000 neckline. A break below the pennant could open the door for a deeper decline

該模式表明，較大的下降趨勢始於一月份，當時比特幣未能超過107,000美元的領口。下面的突破可以打開大門，以更深的下降