比特币（BTC）鲸鱼在超流油中打开了$ 1000000000的短位置，针对近期校正

区块链分析平台报道的这一大胆的举动标志着主要参与者的看跌前景，并引发了人们对比特币近期价格行动的强烈猜测。

A cryptocurrency whale has made a massive $1 billion short position on Bitcoin (BTC) with 40x leverage on Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives exchange, according to blockchain analytics platforms.

根据区块链分析平台的数据，一条加密货币鲸在比特币（BTC）上占据了10亿美元的短期职位，其杠杆作用为40倍，这是一个分散的衍生品交换。

This signals a bearish outlook from a major player in the market and could have broader implications for Bitcoin’s near-term price action, which is currently facing pressure to break below $104,000.

这标志着市场上主要参与者的看跌前景，并且可能对比特币的近期价格行动具有更大的影响，该价格目前正面临着突破104,000美元以下的压力。

What Happened: Bitcoin Whale Opens $1 Billion Short Position

发生了什么：比特币鲸开放了10亿美元的短职位

On-chain data from platforms like Look on chain and Alphractal show that the whale, known as Qwatio, deposited 2.3 million USDC to Hyperliquid and opened a 40x leveraged short position on 826 BTC, valued at around $1 billion, at a price of $105,168. The trade was executed around May 21.

诸如链上的链和字母等平台的链链数据表明，该鲸鱼（称为Qwatio）存放了230万USDC，以超过流动性，并在826 BTC上打开了40倍的杠杆率，价值约10亿美元，价格约为105,168美元。该交易是在5月21日左右执行的。

The whale’s liquidation price is estimated at $106,600, meaning a Bitcoin price surge above this level could wipe out the position. As of Friday morning, Bitcoin is trading at $104,885, down 0.45% in the last 24 hours, placing the trade in a precarious position.

鲸鱼的清算价格估计为106,600美元，这意味着比特币价格上涨以上水平可能会消除该职位。截至周五早上，比特币的交易价格为104,885美元，在过去24小时内下跌0.45％，使交易处于不稳定的位置。

The identity of the whale remains pseudonymous, but their wallet activity suggests they are a sophisticated trader or institutional player with a history of large-scale trades. Unlike James Wynn, a well-known trader recently associated with massive long positions on Bitcoin (including a $1.25 billion long bet), this whale’s bearish stance contrasts with the broader bullish sentiment in the market.

鲸鱼的身份仍然是假名的，但他们的钱包活动表明他们是一位具有大规模交易历史的老练交易员或机构参与者。与詹姆斯·怀恩（James Wynn）是一位著名的交易者，最近与比特币上的长期头寸相关联（包括12.5亿美元的赌注）不同，这种看跌的立场与市场上更广泛的看涨情绪形成鲜明对比。

This short position suggests that the whale anticipates a near-term correction in Bitcoin’s price, possibly driven by profit-taking after Bitcoin’s rapid rise above $100,000 or macroeconomic factors like U.S.-China trade tensions.

这个短期职位表明，鲸鱼预计比特币的价格会进行近期的更正，这可能是由于比特币快速上升超过100,000美元以上或宏观经济因素（如美国 - 中国贸易张力）而造成的。

Where Is the Liquidation Price, and What Could Happen Next?

清算价格在哪里，接下来会发生什么？

Posts on X indicate that market makers may be “chasing” this short, aiming to close the position and trigger a short squeeze. A significant increase in buying pressure could pour more fuel on the fire, potentially pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high.

X上的帖子表明，做市商可能正在“追逐”这一短暂的，旨在关闭位置并引发短暂的挤压。购买压力的显着增加可能会在大火上倒入更多的燃料，这可能会将比特币推向新的历史最高水平。

However, some traders believe that Bitcoin's recent price action suggests a double top pattern, which could lead to a deeper correction.

但是，一些交易者认为，比特币最近的价格行动表明了双重模式，这可能会导致更深入的更正。

"We might see a 30% chance of a pullback to $100,500 and a 15% probability of a flush to $95,800 if we break the neckline and the pennant support, setting the stage for a continuation toward the $97,000-$98,500 support range," a trader noted.

一位交易员指出：“如果我们打破领口和pennant的支撑，我们可能会看到30％的回调可能会撤回100,500美元，而15％的冲洗率达到95,800美元，这为持续的舞台迈向了$ 97,000- $ 98,500的支持范围。”

The Formation of a Bearish M Chart Pattern

看跌m图图模式的形成

An M chart pattern, also known as a triple top, is formed when a security reaches a peak price three times in a relatively short period. This pattern is typically bearish and signals a potential reversal of the current uptrend.

当安全性在相对较短的时间内三倍达到峰值价格时，M图模式（也称为三重顶部）就会形成。这种模式通常是看跌，并表示当前上升趋势的潜在逆转。

The first top in this pattern occurred on January 5, 2025, when Bitcoin reached a high of $78,000 before pulling back to the $70,000 support level. The second top was formed on February 20, 2025, at a price of $76,000, marking the apex of a steeper rebound from the $60,000 support.

这种模式中的第一个最高点发生在2025年1月5日，当时比特币达到78,000美元的最高点，然后退回到70,000美元的支持水平。第二个顶级于2025年2月20日成立，价格为76,000美元，标志着从60,000美元的支持下的陡峭反弹的顶点。

After a third attempt to break above the $80,000 resistance, Bitcoin experienced a steeper decline, finally finding support at the $60,000 level. This final decline completed the M chart pattern, which is now being priced in by market makers.

在第三次尝试超越了80,000美元的电阻之后，比特币的下降幅度较大，最终在60,000美元的水平上找到了支持。最终下降完成了M图表模式，该模式现在由做市商定价。

Moreover, traders are also discussing the possibility of a bearish pennant pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend with a 30% chance of pulling back to $100,500 or a 15% probability of a deeper flush to $95,800 if the pennant breaks down.

此外，贸易商还正在讨论看跌佳肴模式的可能性，这可能表明看跌趋势的延续，如果佳果分解，则有30％的机会将返回到100,500美元或15％的更深层次的冲洗量或15％的可能性。

"This pennant formation, if valid, suggests a continuation of the move down to 100.5 with a 30% probability or a deeper flush to 95.8 with a 15% probability if we break the pennant and the neckline."

“这种五角旗形成，如果有效，则表明，如果我们打破甲甘南和领口，则以30％的概率或更深的冲洗量向下移动至100.5，或更深的冲洗效果为95.8。”

The pennant pattern is formed by a converging set of price channels, which typically occurs during a period of low volatility. The pattern is usually named after the shape of the pennant, which can be rectangular, triangular, or trapezoidal.

五角旗模式由一组收敛的价格通道形成，通常发生在低波动性时期。该图案通常以五角旗的形状命名，该形状可以是矩形，三角形或梯形的。

In the case of Bitcoin, the pennant pattern is being formed in the lower price channels, while the upper price channels are highlighting the pennant's height.

就比特币而言，在较低的价格渠道中形成了五角旗模式，而高价渠道则突出了三角旗的高度。

The pattern is signaling a continuation of the broader downtrend that began in January when Bitcoin failed to close above the $107,000 neckline. A break below the pennant could open the door for a deeper decline

该模式表明，较大的下降趋势始于一月份，当时比特币未能超过107,000美元的领口。下面的突破可以打开大门，以更深的下降