Key Takeaways:
* According to Fidelity Digital Assets, the mid-term outlook dropped to an “optimism” zone, and Bitcoin (BTC) is now trending toward “undervaluation.”
* The investment firm explained that the 'Bitcoin Yardstick' metric, which calculates BTC's market cap divided by its hashrate, is getting lower. This suggests that Bitcoin is becoming "cheaper" relative to the energy security of its network.
* In Q1 2025, the metric stayed between -1 and 3 standard deviations, cooling from its Q4 2024 overheated levels. The number of days above 2-standard deviations dropped from 22 to 15, with none above 3, indicating that Bitcoin is less expensive compared to its network strength.
* The investment firm mentioned that Bitcoin is in an “acceleration phase,” where rallies to new highs aren't uncommon, although they caution a blow-off top could take place.
* Illiquid supply rose from 61.50% to 63.49%, while liquid supply fell by 4%, indicating that holders are increasingly committed to long-term positions. The Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio, currently 16% below its 2017 peak.
* According to the March 2025 US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report by JOLTS, there was a sharp drop in total private jobs to 7.19 million.
* A lower-than-expected JOLTS number signals a cooling labor market, raising expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, which weakens the dollar and lifts risk assets like Bitcoin.
* Conversely, a higher-than-expected figure suggests economic strength, potentially delaying cuts and pressuring crypto prices. With federal layoffs at a 2020 peak, market expectations are leaning slightly dovish.
* Economist and Bitcoin commentator Alex Kruger identified the JOLTS data as a short-term win for Bitcoin, as a "risk/gold hybrid" poised to gain from tariff de-escalation after Trump’s 90-day pause (ending July 8).
