比特幣 (BTC) 較歷史高點下跌超過 10%——這就是為什麼你不應該擔心

比特幣 (BTC -2.40%) 今年可能會上漲超過 50%，但至少可以說，過去三個月的表現令人失望。比特幣目前的交易價格比 3 月中旬創下的歷史高點 73,797 美元低了 10% 以上。 6月18日，比特幣價格一個多月來首次跌破65,000美元。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has had a rough three months, to say the least. After setting a new all-time high of $73,797 on June 18, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10%. At one point on June 18, the price of Bitcoin fell below $65,000 for the first time in more than a month.

至少可以說，比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）經歷了艱難的三個月。自 6 月 18 日創下 73,797 美元的歷史新高後，比特幣價格已下跌超過 10%。 6 月 18 日，比特幣價格一度跌破 65,000 美元，這是一個多月來的首次。

But no worries. We've seen this story before with Bitcoin, and seasoned crypto investors know that short-term declines in the price of Bitcoin can often present unique long-term buying opportunities. So here are two good reasons to stop worrying and buy the dip.

但不用擔心。我們之前已經在比特幣上看到這個故事，經驗豐富的加密貨幣投資者知道，比特幣價格的短期下跌往往可以帶來獨特的長期購買機會。因此，這裡有兩個充分的理由讓您停止擔憂並逢低買入。

The new spot Bitcoin ETFs

新的現貨比特幣 ETF

At some point, it starts to sound like a broken record, but here's the reality: Huge investor inflows into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs (NYSEARCA: BITO) are likely to send the price of Bitcoin higher. While there was some cooling of investor inflows into the ETFs in May, the pace of capital being committed to the cryptocurrency seems to be picking up again. At one point in early June, the new Bitcoin ETFs had a 19-day streak of net investor inflows. To date, more than $30 billion has flowed into the new ETFs.

在某種程度上，這聽起來像是一個打破的記錄，但現實是：大量投資者流入新的現貨比特幣 ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）可能會推高比特幣的價格。儘管 5 月投資者流入 ETF 的資金有所降溫，但資本投入加密貨幣的步伐似乎再次加快。 6 月初的某個時候，新的比特幣 ETF 出現了連續 19 天的投資者淨流入。迄今為止，已有超過 300 億美元流入新 ETF。

So that leads to the inevitable question: Why isn't the price of Bitcoin going up, if we're seeing all these ETF inflows? One answer could be that the top buyers of the new ETFs are not retail investors (people like you and me) or large institutional investors. Instead, the primary buyers appear to be Wall Street hedge funds. In fact, 80 of the largest buyers of the ETFs so far are hedge funds. And that's simply not the type of patient, buy-and-hold money that is going to send the price of Bitcoin higher over the long haul.

因此，這就引出了一個不可避免的問題：如果我們看到所有這些 ETF 資金流入，為什麼比特幣的價格沒有上漲？一種答案可能是，新 ETF 的最大買家不是散戶投資者（像你和我這樣的人）或大型機構投資者。相反，主要買家似乎是華爾街對沖基金。事實上，迄今為止 ETF 的最大買家中有 80 個是對沖基金。從長遠來看，這根本不是那種耐心購買並持有資金的類型，不會推高比特幣的價格。

The good news here is that retail investors appear to be boosting their allocations to Bitcoin. And, over time, we can expect more institutional investors to start buying crypto, too. BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), which has $10 trillion in assets under management, says that there are three distinct types of institutional investors that could be joining the Bitcoin party soon: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. Once this money pool enters the crypto market, it will likely send Bitcoin higher.

好消息是散戶似乎正在增加對比特幣的配置。而且，隨著時間的推移，我們預計會有更多的機構投資者也開始購買加密貨幣。管理10 兆美元資產的貝萊德（NYSE：BLK）表示，三種不同類型的機構投資者可能很快就會加入比特幣陣營：退休基金、捐贈基金和主權財富基金。一旦這個資金池進入加密貨幣市場，它可能會推高比特幣。

The halving

減半

And don't give up on the halving quite yet. While the performance of Bitcoin since the halving has been underwhelming, the reality is that any halving event does not magically lead to stratospheric boosts in the price of Bitcoin. The halving reduces the rate of creation of new Bitcoin by one-half, and this is what sets off a chain reaction of events that can lead to higher Bitcoin prices. In many ways, it's similar to the way monetary policy works, in that rate cuts or other measures can take time to impact the broader economy.

並且不要放棄減半。儘管自減半以來比特幣的表現一直平淡無奇，但現實情況是，任何減半事件都不會神奇地導致比特幣價格大幅上漲。減半使新比特幣的創造速度降低了一半，這引發了一系列事件的連鎖反應，可能導致比特幣價格上漲。在許多方面，它與貨幣政策的運作方式類似，因為降息或其他措施可能需要一段時間才能影響更廣泛的經濟。

In short, financial impacts can take time to develop, and it may be several months until we see the price of Bitcoin really take off. Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya recently analyzed the performance of Bitcoin during the previous halving cycle (which started in May 2020) and found that Bitcoin's performance did not really start to take off until several months into the halving cycle. At that point, the Bitcoin chart went parabolic, and the cryptocurrency went on to set a new all-time high of $69,000 in that cycle.

簡而言之，財務影響可能需要一段時間才能形成，我們可能需要幾個月的時間才能看到比特幣的價格真正起飛。億萬富翁創投家 Chamath Palihapitiya 最近分析了比特幣在上一個減半週期（自 2020 年 5 月開始）期間的表現，發現比特幣的表現直到減半週期幾個月後才真正開始起飛。那時，比特幣圖表呈現拋物線狀，且該加密貨幣在該週期中繼續創下 69,000 美元的歷史新高。

Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 this year?

比特幣今年會突破10萬美元嗎？

Against this backdrop, there are plenty of analysts and investors who still think Bitcoin could hit $100,000 or higher by the end of this year. According to Standard Chartered, the rise of pro-Bitcoin rhetoric on the election campaign trail is yet another factor that could send Bitcoin to $100,000. In an ultra-bullish scenario, Bitcoin could hit $150,000.

在此背景下，許多分析師和投資者仍然認為比特幣到今年年底可能會達到 10 萬美元或更高。據渣打銀行稱，競選活動中支持比特幣言論的興起是另一個可能推動比特幣價格升至 10 萬美元的因素。在極度看漲的情況下，比特幣可能會達到 15 萬美元。

If $150,000 is the upper level for Bitcoin this year, the lower level could be $42,000. Back in March, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) predicted that Bitcoin would lose 33% of its value in the aftermath of the halving. This bearish scenario focused on the chaotic impact that the halving could have on the Bitcoin mining industry.

如果 15 萬美元是今年比特幣的上限，那麼下限可能是 42,000 美元。早在 3 月份，摩根大通（NYSE：JPM）就預測比特幣在減半後將損失 33% 的價值。這種看跌情境的重點是減半可能對比特幣礦業產生的混亂影響。

Overall, I'm not worried about Bitcoin at $65,000. The only time I will be worried is if Bitcoin drops below the $42,000 price level. Thankfully, this seems unlikely, given Bitcoin's ETF investor inflows and growing mainstream adoption. Thus, if you are risk-averse and bullish on Bitcoin's long-term outlook, now could be a perfect time to buy the dip.

總的來說，我並不擔心 65,000 美元的比特幣。我唯一擔心的是比特幣是否跌破 42,000 美元的價格水平。值得慶幸的是，鑑於比特幣 ETF 投資者的流入和主流採用率的不斷提高，這似乎不太可能。因此，如果您規避風險並看好比特幣的長期前景，現在可能是逢低買入的最佳時機。