比特币 (BTC) 较历史最高点下跌超过 10%——这就是为什么你不应该担心

比特币 (BTC -2.40%) 今年可能上涨超过 50%，但至少可以说，过去三个月的表现令人失望。比特币目前的交易价格比 3 月中旬创下的历史高点 73,797 美元低了 10% 以上。 6月18日，比特币价格一个多月来首次跌破65000美元。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has had a rough three months, to say the least. After setting a new all-time high of $73,797 on June 18, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10%. At one point on June 18, the price of Bitcoin fell below $65,000 for the first time in more than a month.

至少可以说，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）经历了艰难的三个月。自 6 月 18 日创下 73,797 美元的历史新高后，比特币价格已下跌超过 10%。 6 月 18 日，比特币价格一度跌破 65,000 美元，这是一个多月以来的首次。

But no worries. We've seen this story before with Bitcoin, and seasoned crypto investors know that short-term declines in the price of Bitcoin can often present unique long-term buying opportunities. So here are two good reasons to stop worrying and buy the dip.

但不用担心。我们之前已经在比特币上看到过这个故事，经验丰富的加密货币投资者知道，比特币价格的短期下跌往往可以带来独特的长期购买机会。因此，这里有两个充分的理由让您停止担忧并逢低买入。

The new spot Bitcoin ETFs

新的现货比特币 ETF

At some point, it starts to sound like a broken record, but here's the reality: Huge investor inflows into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs (NYSEARCA: BITO) are likely to send the price of Bitcoin higher. While there was some cooling of investor inflows into the ETFs in May, the pace of capital being committed to the cryptocurrency seems to be picking up again. At one point in early June, the new Bitcoin ETFs had a 19-day streak of net investor inflows. To date, more than $30 billion has flowed into the new ETFs.

在某种程度上，这听起来像是一个打破的记录，但现实是：大量投资者流入新的现货比特币 ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）可能会推高比特币的价格。尽管 5 月份投资者流入 ETF 的资金有所降温，但资本投入加密货币的步伐似乎再次加快。 6 月初的某个时候，新的比特币 ETF 出现了连续 19 天的投资者净流入。迄今为止，已有超过 300 亿美元流入新 ETF。

So that leads to the inevitable question: Why isn't the price of Bitcoin going up, if we're seeing all these ETF inflows? One answer could be that the top buyers of the new ETFs are not retail investors (people like you and me) or large institutional investors. Instead, the primary buyers appear to be Wall Street hedge funds. In fact, 80 of the largest buyers of the ETFs so far are hedge funds. And that's simply not the type of patient, buy-and-hold money that is going to send the price of Bitcoin higher over the long haul.

因此，这就引出了一个不可避免的问题：如果我们看到所有这些 ETF 资金流入，为什么比特币的价格没有上涨？一种答案可能是，新 ETF 的最大买家不是散户投资者（像你和我这样的人）或大型机构投资者。相反，主要买家似乎是华尔街对冲基金。事实上，迄今为止 ETF 的最大买家中有 80 个是对冲基金。从长远来看，这根本不是那种耐心购买并持有资金的类型，不会推高比特币的价格。

The good news here is that retail investors appear to be boosting their allocations to Bitcoin. And, over time, we can expect more institutional investors to start buying crypto, too. BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), which has $10 trillion in assets under management, says that there are three distinct types of institutional investors that could be joining the Bitcoin party soon: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds. Once this money pool enters the crypto market, it will likely send Bitcoin higher.

好消息是散户投资者似乎正在增加对比特币的配置。而且，随着时间的推移，我们预计会有更多的机构投资者也开始购买加密货币。管理着 10 万亿美元资产的贝莱德（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BLK）表示，三种不同类型的机构投资者可能很快就会加入比特币阵营：养老基金、捐赠基金和主权财富基金。一旦这个资金池进入加密市场，它可能会推高比特币。

The halving

减半

And don't give up on the halving quite yet. While the performance of Bitcoin since the halving has been underwhelming, the reality is that any halving event does not magically lead to stratospheric boosts in the price of Bitcoin. The halving reduces the rate of creation of new Bitcoin by one-half, and this is what sets off a chain reaction of events that can lead to higher Bitcoin prices. In many ways, it's similar to the way monetary policy works, in that rate cuts or other measures can take time to impact the broader economy.

并且不要放弃减半。尽管自减半以来比特币的表现一直平淡无奇，但现实情况是，任何减半事件都不会神奇地导致比特币价格大幅上涨。减半使新比特币的创造速度降低了一半，这引发了一系列事件的连锁反应，可能导致比特币价格上涨。在很多方面，它与货币政策的运作方式类似，因为降息或其他措施可能需要一段时间才能影响更广泛的经济。

In short, financial impacts can take time to develop, and it may be several months until we see the price of Bitcoin really take off. Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya recently analyzed the performance of Bitcoin during the previous halving cycle (which started in May 2020) and found that Bitcoin's performance did not really start to take off until several months into the halving cycle. At that point, the Bitcoin chart went parabolic, and the cryptocurrency went on to set a new all-time high of $69,000 in that cycle.

简而言之，财务影响可能需要一段时间才能形成，我们可能需要几个月的时间才能看到比特币的价格真正起飞。亿万富翁风险投资家 Chamath Palihapitiya 最近分析了比特币在上一个减半周期（自 2020 年 5 月开始）期间的表现，发现比特币的表现直到减半周期几个月后才真正开始起飞。那时，比特币图表呈抛物线状，并且该加密货币在该周期中继续创下 69,000 美元的历史新高。

Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 this year?

比特币今年会突破10万美元吗？

Against this backdrop, there are plenty of analysts and investors who still think Bitcoin could hit $100,000 or higher by the end of this year. According to Standard Chartered, the rise of pro-Bitcoin rhetoric on the election campaign trail is yet another factor that could send Bitcoin to $100,000. In an ultra-bullish scenario, Bitcoin could hit $150,000.

在此背景下，许多分析师和投资者仍然认为比特币到今年年底可能会达到 10 万美元或更高。据渣打银行称，竞选活动中支持比特币言论的兴起是另一个可能推动比特币价格升至 10 万美元的因素。在极度看涨的情况下，比特币可能会达到 15 万美元。

If $150,000 is the upper level for Bitcoin this year, the lower level could be $42,000. Back in March, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) predicted that Bitcoin would lose 33% of its value in the aftermath of the halving. This bearish scenario focused on the chaotic impact that the halving could have on the Bitcoin mining industry.

如果 15 万美元是今年比特币的上限，那么下限可能是 42,000 美元。早在 3 月份，摩根大通（纽约证券交易所代码：JPM）就预测比特币在减半后将损失 33% 的价值。这种看跌情景的重点是减半可能对比特币采矿业产生的混乱影响。

Overall, I'm not worried about Bitcoin at $65,000. The only time I will be worried is if Bitcoin drops below the $42,000 price level. Thankfully, this seems unlikely, given Bitcoin's ETF investor inflows and growing mainstream adoption. Thus, if you are risk-averse and bullish on Bitcoin's long-term outlook, now could be a perfect time to buy the dip.

总的来说，我并不担心 65,000 美元的比特币。我唯一担心的是比特币是否跌破 42,000 美元的价格水平。值得庆幸的是，鉴于比特币 ETF 投资者的流入和主流采用率的不断提高，这似乎不太可能。因此，如果您规避风险并看好比特币的长期前景，那么现在可能是逢低买入的最佳时机。