比特幣（BTC）可能會隨著中國對人民幣（CNY）的控製而激增，從而使其貶值

中國周二放鬆了對元（CNY）的控制，使其貶值超過了關鍵水平，這可能是為了回應唐納德·特朗普總統的積極關稅。

China's yuan depreciated beyond a key level on Tuesday, likely in response to President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs, which could favor bitcoin (BTC), crypto analysts anticipate.

加密分析師預計，中國的元素在周二貶值了，這可能是為了應對唐納德·特朗普總統的積極關稅，這可能會有利於比特幣（BTC）。

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the so-called daily yuan fix at 7.2038 per dollar early on Tuesday, the weakest since September.

中國人民銀行（PBOC）將所謂的每日人民幣定為每週7.2038，這是自9月以來最弱的。

The yuan isn't a free float currency like the USD, euro and other G-7 nations and is allowed to trade in a range of 2% on either side of the daily fix announced at 9:15 a.m. Beijing time.

人民幣不是像美元，歐元和其他G-7國家這樣的自由浮動貨幣，也可以在北京時間上午9:15宣布的每日修復中的兩邊交易範圍為2％。

The 7.2 level has been considered a "harder line in the sand" for the central bank for years. The USD/CNY pair has traded above the said level a few times since 2022 but never established a foothold.

多年來，中央銀行被認為是7.2水平的“沙子中的硬線”。自2022年以來，USD/CNY對已經幾次交易了上述水平，但從未建立立足點。

That could change with the PBOC explicitly setting the daily mid-point beyond the 7.2 level. In other words, the move signals a shift to managed depreciation of the yuan, which will help keep China's exports cheaper and competitive, potentially offsetting the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods.

隨著PBOC明確將每日中點設置為7.2水平，這種情況可能會發生變化。換句話說，此舉標誌著元人民幣的管理折舊的轉變，這將有助於使中國的出口更便宜，競爭力，並有可能抵消特朗普關稅對中國商品的負面影響。

Capital flight to BTC?

大型BTC的資本飛行？

The managed depreciation could also trigger capital flight from China, which may find home in cryptocurrencies, according to analysts.

據分析師稱，託管折舊還可能觸發從中國的資本飛行，這可能會在加密貨幣中找到房屋。

"The U.S. is now pursuing full-scale economic pressure on China, which may be forced to respond with quantitative easing and a currency devaluation. If so—and if China permits capital flight—Bitcoin could surge, much like it did in 2015," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note to clients Monday.

10x研究的創始人Markus Thielen表示：“美國現在正在對中國施加全面的經濟壓力，這可能會被迫以定量的緩和和貨幣貶值的措施。

The Chinese central bank devalued the yuan by 1.9% on Aug. 11, 2015, the most significant single-day depreciation in over two decades, sending shockwaves across global financial markets. Bitcoin initially fell over 20% with the U.S. stocks but quickly turned higher and surged nearly 60% in the following four months.

中國中央銀行在2015年8月11日將人民幣貶值1.9％，這是二十年來最重要的單日折舊，在全球金融市場上引發了衝擊波。比特幣最初隨著美國股票而下降了20％以上，但在接下來的四個月中，比特幣迅速變高，飆升了近60％。

Ben Zhou, CEO and founder of the crypto exchange Bybit, voiced a similar opinion on X, saying yuan depreciation tends to bode well for bitcoin.

加密交易所Bybit的首席執行官兼創始人Ben Zhou對X發表了類似的看法，稱Yuan折舊傾向於對比特幣良好。

"China will try to lower RMB to counter the tariff, historically, whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flow into BTC, bullish for BTC," Zhou said on X.

週在X上說：“中國將試圖降低元人民幣，以應對關稅，歷史上，每當rmb下降時，中國的資本大量流入BTC，看漲BTC。”

Regulatory hurdles

監管障礙

While history tells us to expect a bullish BTC reaction to yuan depreciation, note that over the years, China has become anti-crypto, citing financial stability risks and has some of the world's harshest regulations.

儘管歷史告訴我們期望BTC對人民幣折舊的反應，但請注意，多年來，中國以金融穩定的風險為由，並擁有一些世界上最嚴厲的法規。

A new regulation announced earlier this year requires banks to monitor and report suspicious international transactions, including those involving cryptocurrency. Banks are obligated to investigate and report any risky crypto trades, which may result in financial restrictions and potential blacklisting for the trader.

今年早些時候宣布的一項新法規要求銀行監視和報告可疑的國際交易，包括涉及加密貨幣的交易。銀行有義務調查和報告任何風險的加密交易，這可能會導致財務限制和對交易者的潛在黑名單。

The stringent stance means local traders may have a tough time diversifying into bitcoin and other digital assets in the event of a sustained yuan depreciation.

嚴格的立場意味著，如果持續的人民幣折舊，當地交易者可能會艱難地將比特幣和其他數字資產多樣化。

"Since August 2024, the Supreme People’s Court has significantly increased the legal risks for individuals using cryptocurrencies in connection with money laundering, which could easily extend to cases of capital flight,” Thielen said. “This presents a major deterrent, despite rising economic uncertainty.”

Thielen說：“自2024年8月以來，最高人民法院已大大增加了使用加密貨幣與洗錢有關的個人的法律風險，這很容易擴展到資本飛行案件。” “儘管經濟不確定性越來越大，但這仍然是一種主要的威懾力。”