比特幣 (BTC) 夏季平靜期：2024 年第四季會發生什麼事？

隨著比特幣經歷預期的夏季平靜期，著名加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）談論了很多關於比特幣夏季放緩的問題

Bitcoin’s recent slump has seen the cryptocurrency trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and dropping to under $54,000. This downturn comes amid Mt. Gox beginning to repay its customers and the German government continuing to sell portions of its sizable Bitcoin holdings.

比特幣最近的暴跌導致其交易價格低於 200 天簡單移動平均線 (SMA)，並跌至 54,000 美元以下。這次經濟低迷發生之際，Mt. Gox 開始償還其客戶，德國政府繼續出售其持有的部分比特幣。

As Bitcoin experiences its anticipated summer lull, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has talked a lot about Bitcoin’s summer slowdown, a period when its price tends to dip or stagnate. Now that this slowdown is here, Cowen is focusing on what the rest of the year might look like.

隨著比特幣經歷預期的夏季平靜期，著名加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩(Benjamin Cowen)多次談到了比特幣夏季放緩，即比特幣價格往往會下跌或停滯的時期。既然經濟放緩已經到來，考恩正在關註今年剩餘時間的情況。

The big question is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its BMSB in the next few weeks or will it continue to face resistance?

最大的問題是，比特幣能否在未來幾週內回升至 BMSB 以上，還是會繼續面臨阻力？

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Summer Lull

分析比特幣的夏季平靜期

In a recent thread post, Cowen noted that Bitcoin seems to be falling below its bull market support band (BMSB) during the summer of 2024. This isn’t a new occurrence, and similar patterns have been seen in past years. For example, in August 2023, Bitcoin dropped below its BMSB, stayed there for a few weeks, and then had a strong rally in Q4.

Cowen 在最近的一篇文章中指出，比特幣似乎在 2024 年夏季跌破了牛市支撐帶 (BMSB)。例如，2023 年 8 月，比特幣跌破 BMSB，並在那裡停留了幾週，然後在第四季度出現強勁反彈。

In 2013, Bitcoin hit a low in early July but quickly bounced back above the 21-week EMA, leading to a big rally in Q4. However, in 2019, Bitcoin started to decline in the summer and fell below the BMSB after the Federal Reserve cut rates, which led to more drops in Q4.

2013年，比特幣在7月初觸及低點，但很快就反彈至21週均線上方，導致第四季大幅反彈。然而，2019年，比特幣在夏季開始下跌，在聯準會降息後跌破BMSB，導致第四季跌幅更大。

Cowen also mentions that Bitcoin’s return on investment after the 2016 halving looks similar to now, which might mean we see similar patterns this time. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for the current cycle would be 2025.

Cowen 也提到，2016 年減半後比特幣的投資回報看起來與現在相似，這可能意味著我們這次會看到類似的模式。從歷史上看，比特幣往往在減半後的第四季達到頂峰，當前週期為 2025 年。

Key Factors to Watch Out For

需要注意的關鍵因素

There are several key factors to watch that will influence Bitcoin’s next moves. One is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its bull market support band (BMSB), which is a critical level for determining its trend.

有幾個關鍵因素將影響比特幣的下一步走勢，值得關注。一是比特幣能否回升至牛市支撐帶（BMSB）之上，這是決定其走勢的關鍵水準。

Another factor is the Federal Reserve’s policies, especially changes in interest rates, which can impact the market significantly. Additionally, market sentiment, reflected in investor confidence and trading volumes, will play a crucial role.

另一個因素是聯準會的政策，尤其是利率的變化，會對市場產生重大影響。此外，反映在投資者信心和交易量上的市場情緒將發揮至關重要的作用。

Finally, Ethereum’s performance, particularly the ETH/BTC ratio, is important as it has shown patterns similar to past cycles.

最後，以太坊的表現，尤其是 ETH/BTC 比率，很重要，因為它表現出與過去週期類似的模式。

What Could Happen in Q4 2024?

2024 年第四季會發生什麼事？

Cowen thinks Bitcoin’s fate in Q4 2024 depends on whether it can get back above its BMSB. If it follows the patterns of 2013, 2016, and 2023, we could see a strong recovery and rally. But if it mirrors 2019, Bitcoin might continue to struggle.

Cowen 認為，比特幣在 2024 年第四季的命運取決於它是否能回到 BMSB 以上。如果遵循 2013 年、2016 年和 2023 年的模式，我們可能會看到強勁的復甦和反彈。但如果與 2019 年相同，比特幣可能會繼續陷入困境。