比特币 (BTC) 夏季平静期：2024 年第四季度会发生什么？

随着比特币经历预期的夏季平静期，著名加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）谈论了很多关于比特币夏季放缓的问题

Bitcoin’s recent slump has seen the cryptocurrency trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and dropping to under $54,000. This downturn comes amid Mt. Gox beginning to repay its customers and the German government continuing to sell portions of its sizable Bitcoin holdings.

比特币最近的暴跌导致其交易价格低于 200 天简单移动平均线 (SMA)，并跌至 54,000 美元以下。这次经济低迷发生之际，Mt. Gox 开始偿还其客户，而德国政府继续出售其持有的部分比特币。

As Bitcoin experiences its anticipated summer lull, renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has talked a lot about Bitcoin’s summer slowdown, a period when its price tends to dip or stagnate. Now that this slowdown is here, Cowen is focusing on what the rest of the year might look like.

随着比特币经历预期的夏季平静期，著名加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩(Benjamin Cowen)多次谈到了比特币夏季放缓，即比特币价格往往会下跌或停滞的时期。既然经济放缓已经到来，考恩正在关注今年剩余时间的情况。

The big question is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its BMSB in the next few weeks or will it continue to face resistance?

最大的问题是，比特币能否在未来几周内回升至 BMSB 以上，还是会继续面临阻力？

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Summer Lull

分析比特币的夏季平静期

In a recent thread post, Cowen noted that Bitcoin seems to be falling below its bull market support band (BMSB) during the summer of 2024. This isn’t a new occurrence, and similar patterns have been seen in past years. For example, in August 2023, Bitcoin dropped below its BMSB, stayed there for a few weeks, and then had a strong rally in Q4.

Cowen 在最近的一篇帖子中指出，比特币似乎在 2024 年夏季跌破了牛市支撑带 (BMSB)。这并不是什么新鲜事，过去几年也曾出现过类似的情况。例如，2023 年 8 月，比特币跌破 BMSB，并在那里停留了几周，然后在第四季度出现强劲反弹。

In 2013, Bitcoin hit a low in early July but quickly bounced back above the 21-week EMA, leading to a big rally in Q4. However, in 2019, Bitcoin started to decline in the summer and fell below the BMSB after the Federal Reserve cut rates, which led to more drops in Q4.

2013年，比特币在7月初触及低点，但很快反弹至21周均线上方，导致第四季度大幅反弹。然而，2019年，比特币在夏季开始下跌，在美联储降息后跌破BMSB，导致第四季度跌幅更大。

Cowen also mentions that Bitcoin’s return on investment after the 2016 halving looks similar to now, which might mean we see similar patterns this time. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of the post-halving year, which for the current cycle would be 2025.

Cowen 还提到，2016 年减半后比特币的投资回报看起来与现在相似，这可能意味着我们这次会看到类似的模式。从历史上看，比特币往往在减半后的第四季度达到顶峰，当前周期为 2025 年。

Key Factors to Watch Out For

需要注意的关键因素

There are several key factors to watch that will influence Bitcoin’s next moves. One is whether Bitcoin can climb back above its bull market support band (BMSB), which is a critical level for determining its trend.

有几个关键因素将影响比特币的下一步走势，值得关注。一是比特币能否回升至牛市支撑带（BMSB）之上，这是决定其走势的关键水平。

Another factor is the Federal Reserve’s policies, especially changes in interest rates, which can impact the market significantly. Additionally, market sentiment, reflected in investor confidence and trading volumes, will play a crucial role.

另一个因素是美联储的政策，尤其是利率的变化，这会对市场产生重大影响。此外，反映在投资者信心和交易量上的市场情绪将发挥至关重要的作用。

Finally, Ethereum’s performance, particularly the ETH/BTC ratio, is important as it has shown patterns similar to past cycles.

最后，以太坊的表现，尤其是 ETH/BTC 比率，很重要，因为它表现出与过去周期类似的模式。

What Could Happen in Q4 2024?

2024 年第四季度会发生什么？

Cowen thinks Bitcoin’s fate in Q4 2024 depends on whether it can get back above its BMSB. If it follows the patterns of 2013, 2016, and 2023, we could see a strong recovery and rally. But if it mirrors 2019, Bitcoin might continue to struggle.

Cowen 认为，比特币在 2024 年第四季度的命运取决于它能否回到 BMSB 以上。如果遵循 2013 年、2016 年和 2023 年的模式，我们可能会看到强劲的复苏和反弹。但如果与 2019 年相同，比特币可能会继续陷入困境。