到達新高點後，比特幣（BTC）跌跌撞撞，測試$ 100K的支持

比特幣面臨著一個動蕩的週日，因為價格動作急劇扭曲，迅速回溯到102,000美元，飆升至107,000美元的新鮮當地高點

Bitcoin faced a turbulent Sunday as price action delivered a sharp twist, surging to fresh local highs of $107,000 before swiftly retracing to $102,000 within hours. This sudden spike and drop shocked investors who were gearing up for a steady breakout into price discovery. The dramatic move underscored growing market uncertainty, with volatility rising just as many expected a sustained bullish push above the all-time high near $109,000.

比特幣面臨著一個動蕩的週日，因為價格動作急劇下降，在幾個小時內迅速回收到102,000美元，飆升至新鮮的當地高點。這種突然的尖峰和跌落震驚的投資者正在為價格發現穩步突破。這一戲劇性的舉動強調了增長的市場不確定性，波動率上升，就像許多人一樣，人們期望持續的看漲推動力超過了109,000美元的歷史高度。

However, on-chain data points to underlying strength in the current market structure. Insights from CryptoQuant reveal that the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Model stands at 0.41, well below the 0.70 level that historically signals overheated market conditions. This suggests Bitcoin still has room to grow before entering the late-phase distribution zone often seen at cycle tops.

但是，鍊鍊數據表明當前市場結構的基礎強度。來自加密素養的見解表明，比特幣熱宏階段模型為0.41，遠低於0.70水平，歷史上信號表明市場條件過熱。這表明比特幣在進入周期頂部經常看到的晚期分佈區之前仍然有生長的空間。

The market now stands at a critical juncture. While some traders view the retrace as a healthy correction within a broader uptrend, others fear it may mark the beginning of a deeper move to the downside. With sentiment split and macro data pointing toward more upside potential, the coming days will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin resumes its rally or takes a breather before the next leg up.

現在，市場正處於關鍵時刻。雖然一些交易者將回顧視為更廣泛的上升趨勢中的健康糾正，但另一些交易者則擔心這可能標誌著更深層次的不利之處。隨著情緒拆分和宏觀數據指向更大的上升潛力，未來幾天將在確定比特幣是否恢復其集會或在下一條領域之前進行喘息的關鍵。

Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment as bulls attempt to defend the psychological $100,000 support level following Sunday's volatility. Bitcoin price surged past $107,000 before sharply correcting to $102,000, highlighting the fragility of bullish momentum.

比特幣正處於關鍵時刻，因為公牛隊在周日的波動之後試圖捍衛心理上的100,000美元支持水平。比特幣價格飆升了107,000美元，然後大幅校正了102,000美元，強調了看漲勢頭的脆弱性。

If bulls can maintain price action above $100K, it will keep the structure intact and prevent a deeper retracement. However, resistance remains heavy near the $105,000 zone, just below the all-time high around $109,000.

如果公牛可以將價格行動保持在$ 10萬美元以上，它將保持結構完整併防止更深的回撤。但是，電阻在105,000美元的區域附近，距離有史以來高於109,000美元的歷史高處。

Liquidity above these levels may attract upward momentum if buying pressure returns. Still, Bitcoin continues to face consistent short positioning, with traders betting against further upside. This has added pressure and may delay a breakout unless bulls reclaim dominance in the coming sessions.

如果購買壓力回報，則高於這些水平的流動性可能會吸引上升勢頭。儘管如此，比特幣仍在面對持續的短期位置，交易員押注了進一步的上漲空間。這增加了壓力，並且可能會延遲突破，除非公牛在即將到來的會議上奪取優勢。

On-chain analyst Axel Adler shared a critical insight via X, citing a composite indicator based on multiple key metrics: MVRV Z-score, aSOPR, Delta LTH-STH, and ETF flow momentum. These elements are normalized into a fast-moving oscillator designed to identify macro accumulation and distribution zones. The current reading of 0.41 suggests that Bitcoin remains far from overheated conditions, sitting 41% below the 0.70 threshold, which typically signals late-cycle peaks and heavy profit-taking.

鏈分析師Axel Adler通過X共享了一個關鍵的見解，並以多個關鍵指標為基礎：MVRV Z分數，ASOPR，DELTA LTH-STH和ETF流動動量。這些元素被標準化為旨在識別宏積累和分佈區域的快速移動振盪器。目前的0.41讀數表明，比特幣仍然遠離過熱條件，低於0.70閾值41％，這通常標誌著後期循環峰值和大量盈利。

According to Adler, this positioning indicates room for continued upside, especially if macro tailwinds align. While Bitcoin may experience turbulence near resistance, the underlying on-chain structure supports the possibility of further gains, provided bulls hold the line. BTC faced pullback after failed breakout attemptThe 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows high volatility following a breakout attempt that pushed BTC to $107K before sharply reversing. The price failed to hold above the key $103,600 resistance-turned-support zone and has now slipped back to $102,956, raising concerns about a deeper correction. The quick rejection also highlights strong overhead supply and a lack of follow-through from buyers.

據阿德勒（Adler）稱，這種定位表明持續上升空間，尤其是在宏尾風對齊的情況下。儘管比特幣可能會在阻力附近遇到湍流，但潛在的鏈結構支持了進一步增益的可能性，只要公牛持有這條線。 BTC在突破失敗嘗試後面臨回調，4小時的比特幣圖顯示了突破性嘗試後的高波動性，在急劇逆轉之前，將BTC推向了107,000美元。價格未能超過關鍵的103,600美元阻力轉向的支持區，現在已降至102,956美元，這引起了人們對更深入更正的擔憂。快速拒絕還強調了強大的間接費用供應，並且缺乏買家的跟進。

However, BTC remains above the 200-period EMA ($97,123) and SMA ($95,964), indicating that the broader trend is still intact for now. But the failed breakout and subsequent bearish engulfing candle suggest momentum is weakening in the short term.

但是，BTC仍然高於200 period EMA（97,123美元）和SMA（95,964美元），這表明目前更廣泛的趨勢仍然完整。但是，突破性的失敗和隨後的看跌蠟燭表明，短期內動量正在減弱。

If bulls fail to reclaim the $103,600 level quickly, the next significant support lies at $100K - a psychological and technical zone that must hold to prevent a shift in market structure. Volume also spiked during the rejection, signaling strong selling interest at local highs.

如果公牛隊不快速收回103,600美元的水平，那麼下一個重大支持就為$ 10萬美元，這是一個心理和技術區，必須堅持防止市場結構的變化。在拒絕期間，數量也飆升，標誌著當地高點的銷售權力很強。

Until BTC reclaims higher ground, caution is warranted. A sustained drop below $100K could invalidate the current bullish setup, while a successful reclaim of $103.6K may open the door back to $107K and beyond. For now, the market awaits to see if bulls can absorb the selling and stabilize the uptrend.

在BTC收回更高的地面之前，請謹慎行事。持續下降到$ 10萬美元以下可能會使目前的看漲設置無效，而成功的$ 103.6K的成功收回可能會打開門回到10.7萬美元及以後。目前，市場正在等待，看看公牛是否可以吸收銷售並穩定上升趨勢。