到达新高点后，比特币（BTC）跌跌撞撞，测试$ 100K的支持

比特币面临着一个动荡的周日，因为价格动作急剧扭曲，迅速回溯到102,000美元，飙升至107,000美元的新鲜当地高点

Bitcoin faced a turbulent Sunday as price action delivered a sharp twist, surging to fresh local highs of $107,000 before swiftly retracing to $102,000 within hours. This sudden spike and drop shocked investors who were gearing up for a steady breakout into price discovery. The dramatic move underscored growing market uncertainty, with volatility rising just as many expected a sustained bullish push above the all-time high near $109,000.

比特币面临着一个动荡的周日，因为价格动作急剧下降，在几个小时内迅速回收到102,000美元，飙升至新鲜的当地高点。这种突然的尖峰和跌落震惊的投资者正在为价格发现稳步突破。这一戏剧性的举动强调了增长的市场不确定性，波动率上升，就像许多人一样，人们期望持续的看涨推动力超过了109,000美元的历史高度。

However, on-chain data points to underlying strength in the current market structure. Insights from CryptoQuant reveal that the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Model stands at 0.41, well below the 0.70 level that historically signals overheated market conditions. This suggests Bitcoin still has room to grow before entering the late-phase distribution zone often seen at cycle tops.

但是，链链数据表明当前市场结构的基础强度。来自加密素养的见解表明，比特币热宏阶段模型为0.41，远低于0.70水平，历史上信号表明市场条件过热。这表明比特币在进入周期顶部经常看到的晚期分布区之前仍然有生长的空间。

The market now stands at a critical juncture. While some traders view the retrace as a healthy correction within a broader uptrend, others fear it may mark the beginning of a deeper move to the downside. With sentiment split and macro data pointing toward more upside potential, the coming days will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin resumes its rally or takes a breather before the next leg up.

现在，市场正处于关键时刻。虽然一些交易者将回顾视为更广泛的上升趋势中的健康纠正，但另一些交易者则担心这可能标志着更深层次的不利之处。随着情绪拆分和宏观数据指向更大的上升潜力，未来几天将在确定比特币是否恢复其集会或在下一条领域之前进行喘息的关键。

Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment as bulls attempt to defend the psychological $100,000 support level following Sunday's volatility. Bitcoin price surged past $107,000 before sharply correcting to $102,000, highlighting the fragility of bullish momentum.

比特币正处于关键时刻，因为公牛队在周日的波动之后试图捍卫心理上的100,000美元支持水平。比特币价格飙升了107,000美元，然后大幅校正了102,000美元，强调了看涨势头的脆弱性。

If bulls can maintain price action above $100K, it will keep the structure intact and prevent a deeper retracement. However, resistance remains heavy near the $105,000 zone, just below the all-time high around $109,000.

如果公牛可以将价格行动保持在$ 10万美元以上，它将保持结构完整并防止更深的回撤。但是，电阻在105,000美元的区域附近，距离有史以来高于109,000美元的历史高处。

Liquidity above these levels may attract upward momentum if buying pressure returns. Still, Bitcoin continues to face consistent short positioning, with traders betting against further upside. This has added pressure and may delay a breakout unless bulls reclaim dominance in the coming sessions.

如果购买压力回报，则高于这些水平的流动性可能会吸引上升势头。尽管如此，比特币仍在面对持续的短期位置，交易员押注了进一步的上涨空间。这增加了压力，并且可能会延迟突破，除非公牛在即将到来的会议上夺取优势。

On-chain analyst Axel Adler shared a critical insight via X, citing a composite indicator based on multiple key metrics: MVRV Z-score, aSOPR, Delta LTH-STH, and ETF flow momentum. These elements are normalized into a fast-moving oscillator designed to identify macro accumulation and distribution zones. The current reading of 0.41 suggests that Bitcoin remains far from overheated conditions, sitting 41% below the 0.70 threshold, which typically signals late-cycle peaks and heavy profit-taking.

链分析师Axel Adler通过X共享了一个关键的见解，并以多个关键指标为基础：MVRV Z分数，ASOPR，DELTA LTH-STH和ETF流动动量。这些元素被标准化为旨在识别宏积累和分布区域的快速移动振荡器。目前的0.41读数表明，比特币仍然远离过热条件，低于0.70阈值41％，这通常标志着后期循环峰值和大量盈利。

According to Adler, this positioning indicates room for continued upside, especially if macro tailwinds align. While Bitcoin may experience turbulence near resistance, the underlying on-chain structure supports the possibility of further gains, provided bulls hold the line. BTC faced pullback after failed breakout attemptThe 4-hour Bitcoin chart shows high volatility following a breakout attempt that pushed BTC to $107K before sharply reversing. The price failed to hold above the key $103,600 resistance-turned-support zone and has now slipped back to $102,956, raising concerns about a deeper correction. The quick rejection also highlights strong overhead supply and a lack of follow-through from buyers.

据阿德勒（Adler）称，这种定位表明持续上升空间，尤其是在宏尾风对齐的情况下。尽管比特币可能会在阻力附近遇到湍流，但潜在的链结构支持了进一步增益的可能性，只要公牛持有这条线。 BTC在突破失败尝试后面临回调，4小时的比特币图显示了突破性尝试后的高波动性，在急剧逆转之前，将BTC推向了107,000美元。价格未能超过关键的103,600美元阻力转向的支持区，现在已降至102,956美元，这引起了人们对更深入更正的担忧。快速拒绝还强调了强大的间接费用供应，并且缺乏买家的跟进。

However, BTC remains above the 200-period EMA ($97,123) and SMA ($95,964), indicating that the broader trend is still intact for now. But the failed breakout and subsequent bearish engulfing candle suggest momentum is weakening in the short term.

但是，BTC仍然高于200 period EMA（97,123美元）和SMA（95,964美元），这表明目前更广泛的趋势仍然完整。但是，突破性的失败和随后的看跌蜡烛表明，短期内动量正在减弱。

If bulls fail to reclaim the $103,600 level quickly, the next significant support lies at $100K - a psychological and technical zone that must hold to prevent a shift in market structure. Volume also spiked during the rejection, signaling strong selling interest at local highs.

如果公牛队不快速收回103,600美元的水平，那么下一个重大支持就为$ 10万美元，这是一个心理和技术区，必须坚持防止市场结构的变化。在拒绝期间，数量也飙升，标志着当地高点的销售权力很强。

Until BTC reclaims higher ground, caution is warranted. A sustained drop below $100K could invalidate the current bullish setup, while a successful reclaim of $103.6K may open the door back to $107K and beyond. For now, the market awaits to see if bulls can absorb the selling and stabilize the uptrend.

在BTC收回更高的地面之前，请谨慎行事。持续下降到$ 10万美元以下可能会使目前的看涨设置无效，而成功的$ 103.6K的成功收回可能会打开门回到10.7万美元及以后。目前，市场正在等待，看看公牛是否可以吸收销售并稳定上升趋势。