分析師認為比特幣（BTC）陷入熊市階段，可能會下跌

在過去 24 小時內，比特幣 [BTC] 大幅上漲，從 55554 美元的局部低點上漲至截至發稿時的 58038 美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] has seen significant gains over the past 24 hours, rising from a local low of $55554 to $58038 at press time. This marks a 2.08% increase over the past day.

比特幣 [BTC] 在過去 24 小時內大幅上漲，從 55554 美元的局部低點上漲至截至發稿時的 58038 美元。這標誌著過去一天上漲了 2.08%。

These gains come coupled with weekly gains of 1.83%, recovering from a sharp decline to $52546. As the dust settles on these current market conditions, the question arises – will BTC experience a sustained recovery or a mere correction before further dip.

這些收益加上週漲幅 1.83%，從大幅下跌中恢復至 52546 美元。隨著當前市場狀況塵埃落定，問題出現了——比特幣會經歷持續復甦，還是在進一步下跌之前僅經歷回調。

The market sentiment remains bearish as analysts foresee a potential dip. This sentiment is also shared by CryptoQuant analysts who posit that BTC is stuck in a bear phase, citing the 365-day moving average and MVRV.

由於分析師預計可能會下跌，市場情緒仍然看跌。 CryptoQuant 分析師也認同這種觀點，他們認為 BTC 陷入了熊市階段，並引用了 365 天移動平均線和 MVRV。

BTC stuck in bear phaseAccording to CryptoQuant, the Bull-Bear Market cycle has remained in the bear phase over the past two weeks. Since the last time BTC was trading at $62K, the crypto has remained in a bear phase, dropping to a low of $52K in this period. As long as it remains in this phase, a major rally is not to be expected with potential for further correction.

BTC陷入熊市 根據CryptoQuant的數據，牛熊市場週期在過去兩週一直處於熊市階段。自上次 BTC 交易價格為 6.2 萬美元以來，該加密貨幣一直處於熊市階段，在此期間跌至 5.2 萬美元的低點。只要仍處於這一階段，就不會出現大幅反彈，並有可能進一步回檔。

Secondly, the analysis cited that BTC’s MVRV ratio has remained below its 365-day moving average since the 26th of August. Such a scenario suggests the potential for a further decline, as was witnessed in May 2021. During the 2021 cycle, BTC declined by 36% in two months — this reoccurred in November 2021.

其次，分析指出，自 8 月 26 日以來，BTC 的 MVRV 比率一直低於 365 天移動平均線。這種情況表明比特幣有可能進一步下跌，正如2021 年5 月所見證的那樣。 。

Another market indicator signaling a bearish trend is the long-term holders’ SOPR. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders’ SOPR has declined since July, with LTH spending at lower profit margins.

另一個顯示看跌趨勢的市場指標是長期持有者的 SOPR。根據 CryptoQuant 的數據，長期持有者的 SOPR 自 7 月以來一直在下降，LTH 支出的利潤率較低。

When LTHs spend at lower profit margins, it shows a lack of new demand for BTC. Thus, BTC will only show a buying signal when LTH SOPR charts start an uptrend movement.

當 LTH 以較低的利潤率進行支出時，表示對 BTC 缺乏新的需求。因此，只有當 LTH SOPR 圖表開始上升趨勢時，BTC 才會顯示買入訊號。

Finally, BTC has decoupled from gold as its prices have declined while gold prices have been soaring, hitting new highs. Thus, the correlation between gold and BTC has turned negative, where gold’s price increased as BTC declined. This suggested that investors were becoming risk-averse as they turned to traditional assets as a safe haven, thus avoiding volatile assets.

最後，比特幣與黃金脫鉤，其價格下跌，而金價卻一路飆升，創下新高。因此，黃金和 BTC 之間的相關性已變為負相關，即黃金價格上漲，而 BTC 下跌。這顯示投資者開始規避風險，轉向傳統資產作為避風港，從而避開波動性資產。

What Bitcoin’s charts suggestBoth Bitcoin’s LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR declined over the past week. When the LTH-SOPR declines, it suggests that long-term holders were increasingly selling their crypto at a loss.

比特幣圖表顯示比特幣的 LTH-SOPR 和 STH-SOPR 在過去一周均有所下降。當 LTH-SOPR 下降時，這表明長期持有者越來越多地虧本出售他們的加密貨幣。

When the STH-SOPR declines, it indicates that short short-term holders are also selling at a loss, due to FUD and fear of further downside.

當 STH-SOPR 下跌時，表明由於 FUD 和擔心進一步下跌，短期持有者也在虧損出售。

Additionally, Bitcoin’s NRPL has turned from positive to negative, indicating capitulation. This meant that investors have lost confidence in the crypto’s direction and were selling regardless of their losses.

此外，比特幣的 NRPL 已從正轉為負，表明投降。這意味著投資者對加密貨幣的方向失去了信心，並且不顧損失地拋售。

Therefore, based on this analysis, BTC’s bear phase will continue, and the prices are likely to experience continued corrections. Thus, if bears continue to dominate, Bitcoin will drop to the $56K support level.

因此，基於此分析，BTC的熊市階段仍將持續，價格可能會持續回檔。因此，如果空頭繼續佔據主導地位，比特幣將跌至 56,000 美元的支撐位。