分析师认为比特币（BTC）陷入熊市阶段，可能会下跌

在过去 24 小时内，比特币 [BTC] 大幅上涨，从 55554 美元的局部低点上涨至截至发稿时的 58038 美元。

Bitcoin [BTC] has seen significant gains over the past 24 hours, rising from a local low of $55554 to $58038 at press time. This marks a 2.08% increase over the past day.

比特币 [BTC] 在过去 24 小时内大幅上涨，从 55554 美元的局部低点上涨至截至发稿时的 58038 美元。这标志着过去一天上涨了 2.08%。

These gains come coupled with weekly gains of 1.83%, recovering from a sharp decline to $52546. As the dust settles on these current market conditions, the question arises – will BTC experience a sustained recovery or a mere correction before further dip.

这些收益加上每周上涨 1.83%，从急剧下跌中恢复至 52546 美元。随着当前市场状况尘埃落定，问题出现了——比特币会经历持续复苏，还是在进一步下跌之前仅仅经历回调。

The market sentiment remains bearish as analysts foresee a potential dip. This sentiment is also shared by CryptoQuant analysts who posit that BTC is stuck in a bear phase, citing the 365-day moving average and MVRV.

由于分析师预计可能会下跌，市场情绪仍然看跌。 CryptoQuant 分析师也认同这种观点，他们认为 BTC 陷入了熊市阶段，并引用了 365 天移动平均线和 MVRV。

BTC stuck in bear phaseAccording to CryptoQuant, the Bull-Bear Market cycle has remained in the bear phase over the past two weeks. Since the last time BTC was trading at $62K, the crypto has remained in a bear phase, dropping to a low of $52K in this period. As long as it remains in this phase, a major rally is not to be expected with potential for further correction.

BTC陷入熊市 根据CryptoQuant的数据，牛熊市场周期在过去两周一直处于熊市阶段。自上次 BTC 交易价格为 6.2 万美元以来，该加密货币一直处于熊市阶段，在此期间跌至 5.2 万美元的低点。只要仍处于这一阶段，就不会出现大幅反弹，并有可能进一步回调。

Secondly, the analysis cited that BTC’s MVRV ratio has remained below its 365-day moving average since the 26th of August. Such a scenario suggests the potential for a further decline, as was witnessed in May 2021. During the 2021 cycle, BTC declined by 36% in two months — this reoccurred in November 2021.

其次，分析指出，自 8 月 26 日以来，BTC 的 MVRV 比率一直低于 365 天移动平均线。这种情况表明比特币有可能进一步下跌，正如 2021 年 5 月所见证的那样。在 2021 年周期中，比特币在两个月内下跌了 36%——这种情况在 2021 年 11 月再次发生。

Another market indicator signaling a bearish trend is the long-term holders’ SOPR. According to CryptoQuant, long-term holders’ SOPR has declined since July, with LTH spending at lower profit margins.

另一个表明看跌趋势的市场指标是长期持有者的 SOPR。根据 CryptoQuant 的数据，长期持有者的 SOPR 自 7 月以来一直在下降，LTH 支出的利润率较低。

When LTHs spend at lower profit margins, it shows a lack of new demand for BTC. Thus, BTC will only show a buying signal when LTH SOPR charts start an uptrend movement.

当 LTH 以较低的利润率进行支出时，表明对 BTC 缺乏新的需求。因此，只有当 LTH SOPR 图表开始上升趋势时，BTC 才会显示买入信号。

Finally, BTC has decoupled from gold as its prices have declined while gold prices have been soaring, hitting new highs. Thus, the correlation between gold and BTC has turned negative, where gold’s price increased as BTC declined. This suggested that investors were becoming risk-averse as they turned to traditional assets as a safe haven, thus avoiding volatile assets.

最后，比特币与黄金脱钩，其价格下跌，而金价却一路飙升，创下新高。因此，黄金和 BTC 之间的相关性已变为负相关，即黄金价格上涨，而 BTC 下跌。这表明投资者开始规避风险，转向传统资产作为避风港，从而避开波动性资产。

What Bitcoin’s charts suggestBoth Bitcoin’s LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR declined over the past week. When the LTH-SOPR declines, it suggests that long-term holders were increasingly selling their crypto at a loss.

比特币图表表明比特币的 LTH-SOPR 和 STH-SOPR 在过去一周均有所下降。当 LTH-SOPR 下降时，这表明长期持有者越来越多地亏本出售他们的加密货币。

When the STH-SOPR declines, it indicates that short short-term holders are also selling at a loss, due to FUD and fear of further downside.

当 STH-SOPR 下跌时，表明由于 FUD 和担心进一步下跌，短期持有者也在亏损出售。

Additionally, Bitcoin’s NRPL has turned from positive to negative, indicating capitulation. This meant that investors have lost confidence in the crypto’s direction and were selling regardless of their losses.

此外，比特币的 NRPL 已从正转为负，表明投降。这意味着投资者对加密货币的方向失去了信心，并且不顾损失地抛售。

Therefore, based on this analysis, BTC’s bear phase will continue, and the prices are likely to experience continued corrections. Thus, if bears continue to dominate, Bitcoin will drop to the $56K support level.

因此，基于此分析，BTC的熊市阶段仍将持续，价格可能会持续回调。因此，如果空头继续占据主导地位，比特币将跌至 5.6 万美元的支撑位。