比特幣[BTC]站在十字路口，它會壓碎高架阻力還是觸發下行流動性？

為了使比特幣[BTC]保持在公牛模式下，它需要壓碎那些高架阻力水平。否則，正如Ambcrypto指出的那樣，短褲已經在盤旋

For Bitcoin [BTC] to remain in bull mode, it needs to crush those overhead resistance levels. Otherwise, as AMBCrypto highlighted, shorts are already circling, waiting to feast on any sign of weakness. But reclaiming those high-value price nodes won’t be a cakewalk.

為了使比特幣[BTC]保持在牛模式下，它需要壓碎那些高架阻力水平。否則，正如Ambcrypto所強調的那樣，短褲已經在盤旋，等待著任何弱點的跡象。但是，收回那些高價值的價格節點並不是一條小菜。

Historically, breakout euphoria tends to bait weak hands into early profit-taking, giving bears the perfect setup for a downside liquidity sweep. Now, with BTC knocking on the door of its late-January highs around $106,249, the setup is eerily familiar. Is this the beginning of yet another well-engineered bull trap?

從歷史上看，突破性的欣喜傾向於誘使弱小的手賺取早期的盈利，這使熊成為了下行流動性掃除的完美設置。現在，隨著BTC敲門的1月底高點大約106,249美元，該設置非常熟悉。這是另一個精心設計的公牛陷阱的開始嗎？

Spotlighting Bitcoin’s STH cohort

聚焦比特幣的STH隊列

Since Bitcoin tore through the $93k barrier, the STH MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been steadily climbing, with short-term holders ( > 155 days) pocketing a cool +10% on their positions. In layman’s terms, these short-term players are sitting on unrealized profits, with their entry points comfortably below BTC’s current market value.

由於比特幣越過$ 93K的障礙，因此STH MVRV（市場價值與實現的價值）的比率一直在穩步上升，短期持有人（> 155天）的位置上的涼爽 +10％。用外行的話來說，這些短期參與者坐在未實現的利潤上，其入口點舒適地低於BTC當前的市場價值。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

Looking back at the previous cycle, we saw the STH MVRV peak when BTC tapped $98,154 on the 21st of November. However, the rally didn’t stop there. Bitcoin continued to inch its way to the $106k mark over the next month, absorbing the pressure. But here’s where things went south. The bid-side support couldn’t hold the line, as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, sending the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into deep red territory. This liquidity dump triggered a market reset, with BTC ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.

回顧上一個週期，當BTC在11月21日乘坐98,154美元時，我們看到了STH MVRV峰。但是，集會並沒有止步於此。比特幣繼續在下個月的$ 106K大關上，吸收了壓力。但這是向南進去的地方。投標側的支持無法持有這一線路，因為這些STH以流動性淹沒了市場，將NUPL（未實現的損益淨）送入了深紅色的領土。這種流動性轉儲引發了市場重置，到4月初，BTC最終收於76,270美元。

Are the bears ready to roar again?

熊準備再次咆哮了嗎？

Coinglass data is flashing a cautionary signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has surged back to $66 billion, mirroring the levels seen when BTC was flirting with the $104k range last Q4. It’s a high-stakes game.

Coinglass數據正在閃爍一個警示信號：比特幣衍生產品中的開放興趣（OI）飆升至660億美元，反映了BTC在上一Q4的104K範圍調情時所看到的水平。這是一個高風險的遊戲。

Source: Coinglass

資料來源：小店

With price action testing historical ceilings, short-term holders sitting on decent gains, and Open Interest heating up, the ingredients for volatility are all in place. The next few days might just decide whether Bitcoin’s rally has real legs – or if it’s just another bull trap in disguise.

隨著價格動作測試歷史上限，短期持有人坐在體面的收益上以及開放興趣加熱時，波動性的成分都已到位。接下來的幾天可能只是決定比特幣的集會是否具有真實的腿，或者只是偽裝的另一個公牛陷阱。