比特币[BTC]站在十字路口，它会压碎高架阻力还是触发下行流动性？

为了使比特币[BTC]保持在公牛模式下，它需要压碎那些高架阻力水平。否则，正如Ambcrypto指出的那样，短裤已经在盘旋

For Bitcoin [BTC] to remain in bull mode, it needs to crush those overhead resistance levels. Otherwise, as AMBCrypto highlighted, shorts are already circling, waiting to feast on any sign of weakness. But reclaiming those high-value price nodes won’t be a cakewalk.

为了使比特币[BTC]保持在牛模式下，它需要压碎那些高架阻力水平。否则，正如Ambcrypto所强调的那样，短裤已经在盘旋，等待着任何弱点的迹象。但是，收回那些高价值的价格节点并不是一条小菜。

Historically, breakout euphoria tends to bait weak hands into early profit-taking, giving bears the perfect setup for a downside liquidity sweep. Now, with BTC knocking on the door of its late-January highs around $106,249, the setup is eerily familiar. Is this the beginning of yet another well-engineered bull trap?

从历史上看，突破性的欣喜倾向于诱使弱小的手赚取早期的盈利，这使熊成为了下行流动性扫除的完美设置。现在，随着BTC敲门的1月底高点大约106,249美元，该设置非常熟悉。这是另一个精心设计的公牛陷阱的开始吗？

Spotlighting Bitcoin’s STH cohort

聚焦比特币的STH队列

Since Bitcoin tore through the $93k barrier, the STH MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been steadily climbing, with short-term holders ( > 155 days) pocketing a cool +10% on their positions. In layman’s terms, these short-term players are sitting on unrealized profits, with their entry points comfortably below BTC’s current market value.

由于比特币越过$ 93K的障碍，因此STH MVRV（市场价值与实现的价值）的比率一直在稳步上升，短期持有人（> 155天）的位置上的凉爽 +10％。用外行的话来说，这些短期参与者坐在未实现的利润上，其入口点舒适地低于BTC当前的市场价值。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Looking back at the previous cycle, we saw the STH MVRV peak when BTC tapped $98,154 on the 21st of November. However, the rally didn’t stop there. Bitcoin continued to inch its way to the $106k mark over the next month, absorbing the pressure. But here’s where things went south. The bid-side support couldn’t hold the line, as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, sending the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into deep red territory. This liquidity dump triggered a market reset, with BTC ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.

回顾上一个周期，当BTC在11月21日乘坐98,154美元时，我们看到了STH MVRV峰。但是，集会并没有止步于此。比特币继续在下个月的$ 106K大关上，吸收了压力。但这是向南进去的地方。投标侧的支持无法持有这一线路，因为这些STH以流动性淹没了市场，将NUPL（未实现的损益净）送入了深红色的领土。这种流动性转储引发了市场重置，到4月初，BTC最终收于76,270美元。

Are the bears ready to roar again?

熊准备再次咆哮了吗？

Coinglass data is flashing a cautionary signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has surged back to $66 billion, mirroring the levels seen when BTC was flirting with the $104k range last Q4. It’s a high-stakes game.

Coinglass数据正在闪烁一个警示信号：比特币衍生产品中的开放兴趣（OI）飙升至660亿美元，反映了BTC在上一Q4的104K范围调情时所看到的水平。这是一个高风险的游戏。

Source: Coinglass

资料来源：小店

With price action testing historical ceilings, short-term holders sitting on decent gains, and Open Interest heating up, the ingredients for volatility are all in place. The next few days might just decide whether Bitcoin’s rally has real legs – or if it’s just another bull trap in disguise.

随着价格动作测试历史上限，短期持有人坐在体面的收益上以及开放兴趣加热时，波动性的成分都已到位。接下来的几天可能只是决定比特币的集会是否具有真实的腿，或者只是伪装的另一个公牛陷阱。