比特幣 (BTC) 升至 58,974 美元：CryptoQuant 執行長的可怕預測

最大的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）到 2024 年可能會達到 58,974 美元大關。 CryptoQuant 的執行長 Ki Young Ju 今天在 X 上分享了這項預測

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are setting their sights on the final quarter of 2024 and Q1 of 2025 for a new leg up in the BTC rally, fresh off the heels of a new all-time high triggered by the U.S. presidential elections result. But one prominent crypto analyst is painting a different picture — and it spells trouble for Bitcoin.

繼美國總統選舉結果引發的歷史新高之後，比特幣 (BTC) 交易者將目光投向 2024 年最後一個季度和 2025 年第一季度，以便 BTC 反彈出現新的上漲。但一位著名的加密貨幣分析師卻描繪了一幅不同的圖景——這給比特幣帶來了麻煩。

Bitcoin (BTC) to $58,974: A scary prediction by CryptoQuant CEO

比特幣 (BTC) 升至 58,974 美元：CryptoQuant 執行長的可怕預測

The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), might close out 2024 at the $58,974 mark, according to a prediction shared by Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant — but he hopes to be proven wrong.

根據領先的鏈上分析公司CryptoQuant 的創始人兼首席執行官Ki Young Ju 的預測，最大的加密貨幣比特幣(BTC) 可能會在2024 年收盤於58,974 美元大關，但他希望事實證明他是錯的。

On Nov. 11, Bitcoin (BTC) posted an all-time high over $77,200 on major spot exchanges. This spells an almost 24% drop for the orange coin.

11 月 11 日，比特幣 (BTC) 在主要現貨交易所創下了超過 77,200 美元的歷史新高。這意味著橙色硬幣的價格下跌了近 24%。

Given that some years have seen a "Santa Claus Rally" into the yearly close, Bitcoiners should be prepared for even more pain.

鑑於有些年來每年年底都會出現“聖誕老人集會”，比特幣持有者應該做好承受更多痛苦的準備。

Ju is running a forecast prediction for paid users of his service, and the closest bet will be rewarded with 0.1 BTC, which is equal to $7,662 at current prices.

Ju正在對其服務的付費用戶進行預測，最接近的賭注將獎勵0.1 BTC，以當前價格相當於7,662美元。

His X audience is more enthusiastic about the prospects for Bitcoin (BTC) in late Q4, 2024, with about half of the commentators coming out with six-digit predictions.

他的 X 觀眾對 2024 年第四季末比特幣 (BTC) 的前景更加熱情，大約一半的評論員給出了六位數的預測。

Historically, predicting Bitcoin (BTC) performance in December is a challenging task. In the last 10 years, BTC registered five "red" months and five "green" months, as per CoinGlass.

從歷史上看，預測 12 月比特幣 (BTC) 的表現是一項具有挑戰性的任務。根據 CoinGlass 的數據，在過去 10 年中，BTC 有 5 個「紅色」月份和 5 個「綠色」月份。

It should be noted that December 2020 — the previous last month of the halving year — was the best month for the BTC price in almost five years with a 46.92% upsurge.

值得注意的是，2020 年 12 月（減半年的最後一個月）是近五年來 BTC 價格最好的一個月，漲幅達 46.92%。

Most brutal week for Bitcoin (BTC) bears in months

比特幣（BTC）熊市經歷數月來最殘酷的一周

Alongside August, December is the only month with positive average returns and negative median ones, as per 2013-2024 observations.

根據 2013 年至 2024 年的觀察結果，除 8 月外，12 月是唯一平均回報為正、中位數回報為負值的月份。

The last week injected significant optimism into the Bitcoin (BTC) community. The end of the U.S. presidential elections saga and the much-anticipated Fed rate cut pushed the largest cryptocurrency to a new all-time high.

上週為比特幣（BTC）社群注入了巨大的樂觀情緒。美國總統選舉傳奇的結束和備受期待的聯準會降息將最大的加密貨幣推至歷史新高。

This spike caught Bitcoin (BTC) bears off guard. In just three days — Wednesday, Thursday and Friday — they suffered a net liquidation of short positions equal to one-third of a billion dollars.

這次飆升讓比特幣（BTC）空頭措手不及。在短短三天內——週三、週四和週五——他們的空頭部位淨清算額相當於十億美元的三分之一。

For all cryptocurrencies combined, this metric exceeded a whopping $750 million.

對於所有加密貨幣而言，這項指標總計超過了 7.5 億美元。