比特币 (BTC) 升至 58,974 美元：CryptoQuant 首席执行官的可怕预测

最大的加密货币比特币（BTC）到 2024 年可能会达到 58,974 美元大关。 CryptoQuant 的首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 今天在 X 上分享了这一预测

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are setting their sights on the final quarter of 2024 and Q1 of 2025 for a new leg up in the BTC rally, fresh off the heels of a new all-time high triggered by the U.S. presidential elections result. But one prominent crypto analyst is painting a different picture — and it spells trouble for Bitcoin.

继美国总统选举结果引发的历史新高之后，比特币 (BTC) 交易者将目光投向 2024 年最后一个季度和 2025 年第一季度，以便 BTC 反弹出现新的上涨。但一位著名的加密货币分析师却描绘了一幅不同的图景——这给比特币带来了麻烦。

Bitcoin (BTC) to $58,974: A scary prediction by CryptoQuant CEO

比特币 (BTC) 升至 58,974 美元：CryptoQuant 首席执行官的可怕预测

The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), might close out 2024 at the $58,974 mark, according to a prediction shared by Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant — but he hopes to be proven wrong.

根据领先的链上分析公司 CryptoQuant 的创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 的预测，最大的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 可能会在 2024 年收盘于 58,974 美元大关，但他希望事实证明他是错误的。

On Nov. 11, Bitcoin (BTC) posted an all-time high over $77,200 on major spot exchanges. This spells an almost 24% drop for the orange coin.

11 月 11 日，比特币 (BTC) 在主要现货交易所创下了超过 77,200 美元的历史新高。这意味着橙色硬币的价格下跌了近 24%。

Given that some years have seen a "Santa Claus Rally" into the yearly close, Bitcoiners should be prepared for even more pain.

鉴于有些年来每年年底都会出现“圣诞老人集会”，比特币持有者应该做好承受更多痛苦的准备。

Ju is running a forecast prediction for paid users of his service, and the closest bet will be rewarded with 0.1 BTC, which is equal to $7,662 at current prices.

Ju正在对其服务的付费用户进行预测，最接近的赌注将奖励0.1 BTC，按当前价格相当于7,662美元。

His X audience is more enthusiastic about the prospects for Bitcoin (BTC) in late Q4, 2024, with about half of the commentators coming out with six-digit predictions.

他的 X 观众对 2024 年第四季度末比特币 (BTC) 的前景更加热情，大约一半的评论员给出了六位数的预测。

Historically, predicting Bitcoin (BTC) performance in December is a challenging task. In the last 10 years, BTC registered five "red" months and five "green" months, as per CoinGlass.

从历史上看，预测 12 月份比特币 (BTC) 的表现是一项具有挑战性的任务。根据 CoinGlass 的数据，在过去 10 年中，BTC 有 5 个“红色”月份和 5 个“绿色”月份。

It should be noted that December 2020 — the previous last month of the halving year — was the best month for the BTC price in almost five years with a 46.92% upsurge.

值得注意的是，2020 年 12 月（减半年的最后一个月）是近五年来 BTC 价格最好的一个月，涨幅达 46.92%。

Most brutal week for Bitcoin (BTC) bears in months

比特币（BTC）熊市经历数月来最残酷的一周

Alongside August, December is the only month with positive average returns and negative median ones, as per 2013-2024 observations.

根据 2013 年至 2024 年的观察结果，除 8 月外，12 月是唯一平均回报为正、中值回报为负的月份。

The last week injected significant optimism into the Bitcoin (BTC) community. The end of the U.S. presidential elections saga and the much-anticipated Fed rate cut pushed the largest cryptocurrency to a new all-time high.

上周为比特币（BTC）社区注入了巨大的乐观情绪。美国总统选举传奇的结束和备受期待的美联储降息将最大的加密货币推至历史新高。

This spike caught Bitcoin (BTC) bears off guard. In just three days — Wednesday, Thursday and Friday — they suffered a net liquidation of short positions equal to one-third of a billion dollars.

这次飙升让比特币（BTC）空头措手不及。在短短三天内——周三、周四和周五——他们的空头头寸净清算额相当于十亿美元的三分之一。

For all cryptocurrencies combined, this metric exceeded a whopping $750 million.

对于所有加密货币而言，这一指标总计超过了 7.5 亿美元。