比特幣（BTC）的風險信號降至2019年3月以來的最低水平，表明看漲趨勢正在發展

比特幣的風險信號降至23.7，是自2019年3月以來最低的，表明矯正風險較低，看漲趨勢的可能性很高。

Key Takeaways:

關鍵要點：

* The Bitcoin Risk-Off signal dropped to 23.7, its lowest level since March 2019, indicating low correction risk and a high likelihood of a bullish trend developing.

*比特幣的風險信號降至23.7，這是自2019年3月以來的最低水平，表明矯正風險較低，看漲趨勢的可能性很高。

* Despite a recent decline in network activity, bullish macro indicators like the Macro Chain Index (MCI) suggest Bitcoin could soon rally above $100,000.

*儘管網絡活動最近下降，但諸如宏觀鏈指數（MCI）之類的宏觀指標表明，比特幣很快可能會超過100,000美元。

* The Bitcoin Risk-Off signal, which uses onchain and exchange data to assess correction risk, reached its lowest point (23.7) on May 5.

* 5月5日，使用OnChain和Exchange數據評估校正風險的比特幣風險信號達到了其最低點（23.7）。

* This is the lowest reading since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $4,000.

*這是自2019年3月27日以來的最低讀數，當時比特幣（BTC）交易約4,000美元。

* Currently, the signal is in the blue zone, which has historically signaled low correction risk and a high probability of a bullish trend.

*當前，該信號位於藍色區域，該區域歷史上表明了較低的校正風險和看漲趨勢的高可能性。

* When the oscillator rises above 60 or enters the red zone, it implies a greater risk of bearish movement.

*當振盪器上升到60以上或進入紅色區域時，它意味著更大的看跌風險。

* In 2019, the same signal was seen at the bottom of a bear market, setting the stage for a staggering 1,550% rally that saw Bitcoin surge above $68,000 in 2021.

*在2019年，在熊市的底部看到了同樣的信號，這為驚人的1,550％的集會奠定了基礎，該集會在2021年的68,000美元以上，比特幣激增。

* Data from CryptoQuant shows the Risk-Off signal combines six metrics: downside and upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest, and market capitalization. Together, they offer a balanced perspective on correction risk.

*來自加密量的數據顯示，冒險信號結合了六個指標：下行和上行波動率，交換流入，資金率，期貨開放息和市值。他們共同提供了關於更正風險的平衡觀點。

* The last time the Risk-Off Signal indicated a low-risk investment environment was when Bitcoin traded at $4,000. Several factors can explain the difference in price.

*上次的冒險信號表明低風險的投資環境是比特幣以4,000美元的價格交易。幾個因素可以解釋價格差異。

* The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US in 2024 brought a new wave of institutional capital into the crypto sphere.

* 2024年在美國，現場比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）推出了新的機構資本浪潮進入了加密貨幣領域。

* These ETFs and public companies now hold 9% of the total Bitcoin supply. For instance, ETFs launched in 2023 alone now hold 5.5% of Bitcoin, while public firms like Strategy Collective have 3.5%.

*這些ETF和上市公司現在持有總比特幣供應量的9％。例如，僅2023年就啟動ETF現在持有5.5％的比特幣，而戰略集體（Strategy Collective）等公共公司的比特幣佔3.5％。

* Data from Fidelity Digital Assets shows that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased three to four times that of equity indexes, down from triple-digit volatility in its early years, as shown in the chart below. From 2019 to 2025, the 1-year annualized realized volatility dropped by more than 80%.

* Fidelity數字資產的數據表明，比特幣的波動率減少了三位數的股權指數的三到四倍，比以下圖表所示的早期三位數波動率下降了。從2019年到2025年，1年的年度實現的波動率下降了80％以上。

* This maturing market absorbs capital inflows with less price disruption.

*這個成熟的市場吸收資本流入，價格較小。

* Growing mainstream adoption, regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin’s increasing role as a hedge against inflation have also contributed to setting a higher price floor compared to 2019.

*與2019年相比，越來越多的主流採用，監管清晰度和比特幣作為對沖的越來越多的作用也有助於設定更高的價格。