隨著夏季放緩燃料市場操縱，比特幣（BTC）反彈3％

Kaiko的最新研究強調了上週比特幣的3％籃板，這標誌著其最近的下降趨勢的罕見舉動。

Kaiko's latest research reveals a 3% rebound in Bitcoin last week, a rare move against its recent downtrend. This stands in contrast to traditional equities, where the S&P 500 hovered close to correction territory, highlighting diverging trends between digital assets and legacy markets.

Kaiko的最新研究表明，上週比特幣有3％的籃板，這是對其最近下降趨勢的罕見舉措。這與傳統股票相反，在傳統股票上，標準普爾500指數徘徊在校正領域附近，突出了數字資產和傳統市場之間的趨勢。

(Image Credit: Wolf Richter, Real Clear Investment)

（圖片來源：沃爾夫·里希特（Wolf Richter），真正的明確投資）

Summer slowdown for crypto?

加密貨幣放緩？

-> Q3 delivers Bitcoin's lightest volumes historically. But 2025 could flip the script:

- > Q3從歷史上傳達了比特幣最輕的捲。但是2025可以翻轉腳本：

🟡 Fed decision

🟡美聯儲決定

🟠 Trump tariff deadline (Jul 9)

🟠特朗普關稅截止日期（7月9日）

📊 Landmark U.S. crypto bills due before August recess

📊地標的美國加密貨幣賬單在八月之前到期

💡 Options market bracing for action with heavy June 27 flow at 48k.

💡6月27日以4.8K流量為單位的期權市場支撐行動。

The report highlights that Bitcoin's recovery, which pushed the coin to $31,000, was a significant development. It follows a period of selling pressure that saw Bitcoin decline from its 2024 highs of $43,000 to lows of $25,000 in May.

該報告強調，將硬幣推向31,000美元的比特幣的恢復是一個重大發展。這是一段時間的銷售壓力，使比特幣從其2024年的43,000美元高到5月的25,000美元下降。

"Bitcoin recovered slightly last week, but it remains in a downtrend from its 2024 highs and faces resistance at the 200-week moving average, currently around $32,000. A break above this level could pave the way for a continuation of the recent rebound, potentially targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 bear market at $38,000," the report notes.

“比特幣上週稍微恢復了略有恢復，但它從2024年的高點處處於下降趨勢，在200週的移動平均水平上面臨阻力，目前約為32,000美元。超過此水平的突破可能為繼續籃板的延續鋪平了道路，可能針對2021-2022熊市的1.236 fibonacci回購，以2021-2022熊市的市場為$ 38,000，這是38,000美元的報告。

The analysis also mentions that Bitcoin options traders are anticipating a move above $30,000, setting the stage for a potential rally in the latter half of 2024.

分析還提到，比特幣期權交易者預計將搬遷到30,000美元以上，這為2024年下半年的潛在集會奠定了基礎。

"The options market is pricing in a higher probability of Bitcoin trading above $30,000 by June 27, with a substantial amount of options expiring on that day, indicating significant outsized activity in the derivatives market," the researchers add.

研究人員補充說：“期權市場的定價較高，到6月27日，比特幣交易的可能性更高，當天有大量期權到期，這表明衍生品市場的大量大型活動。”

The report further elaborates on the altcoin segment, which is facing pressure as DeFi risks grow.

該報告進一步詳細闡述了Altcoin細分市場，隨著Defi風險的增長，該領域面臨壓力。

"Altcoins struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin, impacted by persistent market manipulation, regulatory uncertainty, and Ethereum's lackluster performance. Kaiko's analysis highlights instances of price manipulation in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, showcasing how low-liquidity environments can be susceptible to such activity, similar to high-frequency trading in traditional markets."

“替代幣努力與比特幣保持同步，受到持續的市場操縱，監管不確定性和以太坊的乏味績效的影響。Kaiko的分析突顯了分散融資（DEFI）生態系統中價格操縱的實例，表明了低點的較低範圍的較高的環境，以較高的環境來表現出與較高的環境相似的較高的市場。

The report details a sandwich attack on Uniswap V3, where a user swapping USDC to USDT lost $215,000. Moreover, spoofing behavior on Hyperliquid last week triggered an intentional $200 million ETH liquidation, leading to a $4 million loss for the vault and new margin requirements for leveraged traders.

該報告詳細介紹了對UNISWAP V3的三明治攻擊，其中用戶將USDC交換至USDT損失了215,000美元。此外，上週超流動性的欺騙行為引發了有意的2億美元清算，從而導致了400萬美元的保險庫損失，並為槓桿交易者提供了新的保證金要求。

These events demonstrate that while blockchain data aids in detection, DeFi remains largely unregulated, which may keep institutional investors wary.

這些事件表明，儘管區塊鏈數據有助於檢測，但DEFI仍然在很大程度上不受監管，這可能使機構投資者保持警惕。

In other developments, traders are keeping an eye on the upcoming Pectra upgrade for Ethereum and how it could influence the token's price.

在其他發展中，交易者正在關注即將到來的以太坊的Pectra升級以及如何影響令牌的價格。

"Despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade, the largest E.R.I.P. rollout yet, and positive long-term fundamentals, traders remain skeptical. Indeed, historical patterns suggest that Ethereum upgrades often lead to 'sell the news' events, and current implied volatility data implies hedging around the launch."

“儘管即將進行的Pectra升級，迄今為止最大的ERIP推出以及積極的長期基本面，但交易者仍然持懷疑態度。的確，歷史模式表明，以太坊升級通常會導致“出售新聞”事件，當前隱含的波動性數據暗示著圍繞發射的套期。”

The analysis reveals that Ethereum's performance has been lackluster, with the token down nearly 40% year-to-date and underperforming both Bitcoin (-14%) and Solana (-35%). As a result, the ETH/BTC ratio now sits at a multi-year low of 0.023.

分析表明，以太坊的性能一直乏力，該代幣逐年下降了近40％，比特幣（-14％）和Solana（-35％）的表現不佳。結果，ETH/BTC比率現在為0.023的多年低點。

"The pessimism towards Ethereum seems to be outweighing the optimism towards Bitcoin, despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade and long-term fundamentals remaining intact. Ethereum continues to dominate tokenized asset issuance and host over $110 billion in stablecoins-its highest since 2020."

“儘管即將到來的Pectra升級和長期基本原狀保持完整狀態，對以太坊的悲觀情緒似乎超過了對比特幣的樂觀情緒。

Finally, the report highlights that Total Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH (Total3) is showing signs of consolidation.

最後，該報告強調說，不包括BTC和ETH（總計3）的總加密市值顯示了合併的跡象。

"A Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low of ~$784 billion to the high of ~$966 billion reveals price rejecting near the 0.618 level ($897 billion), a strong resistance area. The 0.5 ($875 billion) and 0.382 ($854 billion) zones are now acting as support and potential re-accumulation ranges."

“斐波那契的回溯來自最近的7840億美元的鞦韆至9660億美元的高價，顯示價格接近0.618水平（8.97億美元），一個強大的抵抗力面積，0.5（8750億美元）和0.382（8.54億美元）（8.54億美元）（8.54億美元）的Zones Zones Zones Zones Zones at As Suppation As Supping and Suppercunty Re-accccumane reance and and and and and and and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 55, just above neutral. It previously hit a local high near 65, indicating bullish strength but also hinting at short-term exhaustion. A move above 60–65 could signal renewed momentum and a breakout toward $966 billion and potentially the 1.618 Fib extension at $1.08 trillion.

相對強度指數（RSI）徘徊在中性的55左右。它以前在65歲接近65歲的當地高中，表明看漲力量，但也暗示了短期疲憊。超過60–65的行動可能會提出新的動力，並突破到9660億美元，並可能以1.618的延長量為1.08萬億美元。

The MACD remains slightly bullish with a

MACD仍然有些看好