随着夏季放缓燃料市场操纵，比特币（BTC）反弹3％

Kaiko的最新研究强调了上周比特币的3％篮板，这标志着其最近的下降趋势的罕见举动。

Kaiko's latest research reveals a 3% rebound in Bitcoin last week, a rare move against its recent downtrend. This stands in contrast to traditional equities, where the S&P 500 hovered close to correction territory, highlighting diverging trends between digital assets and legacy markets.

Kaiko的最新研究表明，上周比特币有3％的篮板，这是对其最近下降趋势的罕见举措。这与传统股票相反，在传统股票上，标准普尔500指数徘徊在校正领域附近，突出了数字资产和传统市场之间的趋势。

(Image Credit: Wolf Richter, Real Clear Investment)

（图片来源：沃尔夫·里希特（Wolf Richter），真正的明确投资）

Summer slowdown for crypto?

加密货币放缓？

-> Q3 delivers Bitcoin's lightest volumes historically. But 2025 could flip the script:

- > Q3从历史上传达了比特币最轻的卷。但是2025可以翻转脚本：

🟡 Fed decision

🟡美联储决定

🟠 Trump tariff deadline (Jul 9)

🟠特朗普关税截止日期（7月9日）

📊 Landmark U.S. crypto bills due before August recess

📊地标的美国加密货币账单在八月之前到期

💡 Options market bracing for action with heavy June 27 flow at 48k.

💡6月27日以4.8K流量为单位的期权市场支撑行动。

The report highlights that Bitcoin's recovery, which pushed the coin to $31,000, was a significant development. It follows a period of selling pressure that saw Bitcoin decline from its 2024 highs of $43,000 to lows of $25,000 in May.

该报告强调，将硬币推向31,000美元的比特币的恢复是一个重大发展。这是一段时间的销售压力，使比特币从其2024年的43,000美元高到5月的25,000美元下降。

"Bitcoin recovered slightly last week, but it remains in a downtrend from its 2024 highs and faces resistance at the 200-week moving average, currently around $32,000. A break above this level could pave the way for a continuation of the recent rebound, potentially targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 bear market at $38,000," the report notes.

“比特币上周稍微恢复了略有恢复，但它从2024年的高点处处于下降趋势，在200周的移动平均水平上面临阻力，目前约为32,000美元。超过此水平的突破可能为继续篮板的延续铺平了道路，可能针对2021-2022熊市的1.236 fibonacci回购，以2021-2022熊市的市场为$ 38,000，这是38,000美元的报告。

The analysis also mentions that Bitcoin options traders are anticipating a move above $30,000, setting the stage for a potential rally in the latter half of 2024.

分析还提到，比特币期权交易者预计将搬迁到30,000美元以上，这为2024年下半年的潜在集会奠定了基础。

"The options market is pricing in a higher probability of Bitcoin trading above $30,000 by June 27, with a substantial amount of options expiring on that day, indicating significant outsized activity in the derivatives market," the researchers add.

研究人员补充说：“期权市场的定价较高，到6月27日，比特币交易的可能性更高，当天有大量期权到期，这表明衍生品市场的大量大型活动。”

The report further elaborates on the altcoin segment, which is facing pressure as DeFi risks grow.

该报告进一步详细阐述了Altcoin细分市场，随着Defi风险的增长，该领域面临压力。

"Altcoins struggled to keep pace with Bitcoin, impacted by persistent market manipulation, regulatory uncertainty, and Ethereum's lackluster performance. Kaiko's analysis highlights instances of price manipulation in the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, showcasing how low-liquidity environments can be susceptible to such activity, similar to high-frequency trading in traditional markets."

“替代币努力与比特币保持同步，受到持续的市场操纵，监管不确定性和以太坊的乏味绩效的影响。Kaiko的分析突显了分散融资（DEFI）生态系统中价格操纵的实例，表明了低点的较低范围的较高的环境，以较高的环境来表现出与较高的环境相似的较高的市场。

The report details a sandwich attack on Uniswap V3, where a user swapping USDC to USDT lost $215,000. Moreover, spoofing behavior on Hyperliquid last week triggered an intentional $200 million ETH liquidation, leading to a $4 million loss for the vault and new margin requirements for leveraged traders.

该报告详细介绍了对UNISWAP V3的三明治攻击，其中用户将USDC交换至USDT损失了215,000美元。此外，上周超流动性的欺骗行为引发了有意的2亿美元清算，从而导致了400万美元的保险库损失，并为杠杆交易者提供了新的保证金要求。

These events demonstrate that while blockchain data aids in detection, DeFi remains largely unregulated, which may keep institutional investors wary.

这些事件表明，尽管区块链数据有助于检测，但DEFI仍然在很大程度上不受监管，这可能使机构投资者保持警惕。

In other developments, traders are keeping an eye on the upcoming Pectra upgrade for Ethereum and how it could influence the token's price.

在其他发展中，交易者正在关注即将到来的以太坊的Pectra升级以及如何影响令牌的价格。

"Despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade, the largest E.R.I.P. rollout yet, and positive long-term fundamentals, traders remain skeptical. Indeed, historical patterns suggest that Ethereum upgrades often lead to 'sell the news' events, and current implied volatility data implies hedging around the launch."

“尽管即将进行的Pectra升级，迄今为止最大的ERIP推出以及积极的长期基本面，但交易者仍然持怀疑态度。的确，历史模式表明，以太坊升级通常会导致“出售新闻”事件，当前隐含的波动性数据暗示着围绕发射的套期。”

The analysis reveals that Ethereum's performance has been lackluster, with the token down nearly 40% year-to-date and underperforming both Bitcoin (-14%) and Solana (-35%). As a result, the ETH/BTC ratio now sits at a multi-year low of 0.023.

分析表明，以太坊的性能一直乏力，该代币逐年下降了近40％，比特币（-14％）和Solana（-35％）的表现不佳。结果，ETH/BTC比率现在为0.023的多年低点。

"The pessimism towards Ethereum seems to be outweighing the optimism towards Bitcoin, despite the upcoming Pectra upgrade and long-term fundamentals remaining intact. Ethereum continues to dominate tokenized asset issuance and host over $110 billion in stablecoins-its highest since 2020."

“尽管即将到来的Pectra升级和长期基本原状保持完整状态，对以太坊的悲观情绪似乎超过了对比特币的乐观情绪。

Finally, the report highlights that Total Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH (Total3) is showing signs of consolidation.

最后，该报告强调说，不包括BTC和ETH（总计3）的总加密市值显示了合并的迹象。

"A Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low of ~$784 billion to the high of ~$966 billion reveals price rejecting near the 0.618 level ($897 billion), a strong resistance area. The 0.5 ($875 billion) and 0.382 ($854 billion) zones are now acting as support and potential re-accumulation ranges."

“斐波那契的回溯来自最近的7840亿美元的秋千至9660亿美元的高价，显示价格接近0.618水平（8.97亿美元），一个强大的抵抗力面积，0.5（8750亿美元）和0.382（8.54亿美元）（8.54亿美元）（8.54亿美元）的Zones Zones Zones Zones Zones at As Suppation As Supping and Suppercunty Re-accccumane reance and and and and and and and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang and rang。

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 55, just above neutral. It previously hit a local high near 65, indicating bullish strength but also hinting at short-term exhaustion. A move above 60–65 could signal renewed momentum and a breakout toward $966 billion and potentially the 1.618 Fib extension at $1.08 trillion.

相对强度指数（RSI）徘徊在中性的55左右。它以前在65岁接近65岁的当地高中，表明看涨力量，但也暗示了短期疲惫。超过60–65的行动可能会提出新的动力，并突破到9660亿美元，并可能以1.618的延长量为1.08万亿美元。

The MACD remains slightly bullish with a

MACD仍然有些看好