根據ARK Invest的最新研究，到2030年，比特幣（BTC）可能達到240萬美元

比特幣的軌跡吸引了投資者的想像力，ARK Invest的最新研究更新為加密貨幣的未來繪製了變革性的畫面。

Despite a recent setback in its net asset value (NAV), Ark Invest remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $2.4 million by 2030 in a bullish scenario.

儘管最近的淨資產價值（NAV）遇到了挫折，但方舟投資仍然對比特幣（BTC）看漲，預測，在看漲的情況下，加密貨幣到2030年可能會達到240萬美元。

The firm predicts a base case of $1.2 million and a bear case of $500,000 for Bitcoin, presenting a range of possibilities.

該公司預測，比特幣的基本案例為120萬美元，熊案為500,000美元，呈現出一系列可能性。

These figures, part of Ark’s latest research update, are based on several converging trends.

這些數字是ARK最新研究更新的一部分，是基於幾種融合趨勢的。

One key factor is the growing presence of institutions in the cryptocurrency market. Asset managers and corporate treasuries are now allocating capital to Bitcoin, viewing it as a viable addition to their portfolios.

一個關鍵因素是機構在加密貨幣市場中的存在。現在，資產經理和公司國庫正在將資本分配給比特幣，將其視為其投資組合的可行補充。

This shift is being driven by Bitcoin’s uncorrelated returns and its potential to help diversify investment strategies. In an interview with TheStreet, Ark Invest economist Joseph Chang spoke about the implications of institutions entering the cryptocurrency market en masse.

這一轉變是由比特幣的不相關回報及其幫助多樣化投資策略的潛力推動的。在接受TheStreet的採訪中，方舟投資經濟學家Joseph Chang談到了進入加密貨幣市場的機構的含義。

“It’s really interesting to see how institutions are now allocating capital to Bitcoin. We’re starting to see asset managers, especially in the U.S., allocate a portion of their capital to Bitcoin in a big way,” Chang said.

Chang說：“看到機構現在如何將資本分配給比特幣真的很有趣。我們開始看到資產管理人員，尤其是在美國，將其部分資本分配給比特幣，以大大的方式分配給比特幣。”

He added that this move is driven by the need for diversification and lower risk, as traditional markets become increasingly correlated, making it difficult to achieve optimal portfolio allocation.

他補充說，隨著傳統市場越來越相關，這一舉動是由多元化和降低風險的需求驅動的，因此很難實現最佳的投資組合分配。

“But with Bitcoin having very low correlation to traditional assets, it can help institutions diversify their portfolio and reduce overall risk in their investment strategy,” Chang said.

張說：“但是，隨著比特幣與傳統資產的相關性非常低，它可以幫助機構多樣化其投資組合併降低投資策略的總體風險。”

Another key aspect is Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, a narrative often used to compare the cryptocurrency to gold, which has a market cap of $18 trillion.

另一個關鍵方面是比特幣作為價值存儲的角色，這種敘述通常用來將加密貨幣與黃金進行比較，金額為18萬億美元。

Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, is often seen as a decentralized asset that could be used to preserve wealth in an era of monetary uncertainty and inflation, especially as central banks are putting pressure to maintain the value of fiat currencies.

比特幣以其固定的2100萬枚硬幣供應，通常被視為分散的資產，可以在貨幣不確定性和通貨膨脹的時代使用來保存財富，尤其是當中央銀行施加壓力以維持法定貨幣的價值時。

Emerging markets also play a role, as they are grappling with currency devaluation and high inflation, making Bitcoin a hedge for individuals and businesses.

新興市場也起著作用，因為它們正在努力貨幣貶值和高通貨膨脹，這使得比特幣成為個人和企業的對沖。

This demand is not speculative but driven by the need to safeguard purchasing power, leading to sustained capital inflows and boosting Bitcoin’s global standing.

這種需求不是投機性的，而是由於需要維護購買力的需求而驅動的，從而導致持續的資本流入和提高比特幣的全球地位。

The implications of a $49 trillion market cap are significant, as it would place Bitcoin in a unique position, not merely as an asset but as a cornerstone of the global economy.

49萬億美元的市值的含義是顯著的，因為它將比特幣處於獨特的位置，不僅是資產，而且是全球經濟的基石。

This has implications for wealth distribution and financial systems, and even the base case of $1.2 million suggests a paradigm shift in the financial landscape.

這對財富分配和金融系統有影響，甚至120萬美元的基本案例也表明金融格局的範式轉變。

Meanwhile, the $500,000 bear case still implies a transformative leap from current levels, highlighting the magnitude of Ark’s predictions.

同時，$ 500,000的熊案仍然意味著從目前的水平進行了變革，這突出了方舟預測的幅度。

These forecasts are not without challenges, as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and macroeconomic shifts could influence the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.

這些預測並非沒有挑戰，因為監管變化，技術進步和宏觀經濟轉變可能會影響加密貨幣的軌跡。

However, Bitcoin’s history of recovering from downturns and the current market dynamics, with institutional inflows and retail enthusiasm converging, lend credence to Ark’s optimistic outlook.

但是，比特幣從低迷和當前的市場動態中恢復的歷史，機構流入和零售熱情融合了，這使Ark的樂觀前景充滿信心。

As cryptocurrency continues to be a hot topic of discussion, it will be interesting to observe how these predictions unfold and what impact they will have on the cryptocurrency market in the years to come.

隨著加密貨幣仍然是討論的熱門話題，觀察這些預測如何進行以及它們將在未來幾年中對加密貨幣市場產生什麼影響將是很有趣的。