根据ARK Invest的最新研究，到2030年，比特币（BTC）可能达到240万美元

比特币的轨迹吸引了投资者的想象力，ARK Invest的最新研究更新为加密货币的未来绘制了变革性的画面。

Despite a recent setback in its net asset value (NAV), Ark Invest remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), forecasting that the cryptocurrency could reach $2.4 million by 2030 in a bullish scenario.

尽管最近的净资产价值（NAV）遇到了挫折，但方舟投资仍然对比特币（BTC）看涨，预测，在看涨的情况下，加密货币到2030年可能会达到240万美元。

The firm predicts a base case of $1.2 million and a bear case of $500,000 for Bitcoin, presenting a range of possibilities.

该公司预测，比特币的基本案例为120万美元，熊案为500,000美元，呈现出一系列可能性。

These figures, part of Ark’s latest research update, are based on several converging trends.

这些数字是ARK最新研究更新的一部分，是基于几种融合趋势的。

One key factor is the growing presence of institutions in the cryptocurrency market. Asset managers and corporate treasuries are now allocating capital to Bitcoin, viewing it as a viable addition to their portfolios.

一个关键因素是机构在加密货币市场中的存在。现在，资产经理和公司国库正在将资本分配给比特币，将其视为其投资组合的可行补充。

This shift is being driven by Bitcoin’s uncorrelated returns and its potential to help diversify investment strategies. In an interview with TheStreet, Ark Invest economist Joseph Chang spoke about the implications of institutions entering the cryptocurrency market en masse.

这一转变是由比特币的不相关回报及其帮助多样化投资策略的潜力推动的。在接受TheStreet的采访中，方舟投资经济学家Joseph Chang谈到了进入加密货币市场的机构的含义。

“It’s really interesting to see how institutions are now allocating capital to Bitcoin. We’re starting to see asset managers, especially in the U.S., allocate a portion of their capital to Bitcoin in a big way,” Chang said.

Chang说：“看到机构现在如何将资本分配给比特币真的很有趣。我们开始看到资产管理人员，尤其是在美国，将其部分资本分配给比特币，以大大的方式分配给比特币。”

He added that this move is driven by the need for diversification and lower risk, as traditional markets become increasingly correlated, making it difficult to achieve optimal portfolio allocation.

他补充说，随着传统市场越来越相关，这一举动是由多元化和降低风险的需求驱动的，因此很难实现最佳的投资组合分配。

“But with Bitcoin having very low correlation to traditional assets, it can help institutions diversify their portfolio and reduce overall risk in their investment strategy,” Chang said.

张说：“但是，随着比特币与传统资产的相关性非常低，它可以帮助机构多样化其投资组合并降低投资策略的总体风险。”

Another key aspect is Bitcoin’s role as a store of value, a narrative often used to compare the cryptocurrency to gold, which has a market cap of $18 trillion.

另一个关键方面是比特币作为价值存储的角色，这种叙述通常用来将加密货币与黄金进行比较，金额为18万亿美元。

Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, is often seen as a decentralized asset that could be used to preserve wealth in an era of monetary uncertainty and inflation, especially as central banks are putting pressure to maintain the value of fiat currencies.

比特币以其固定的2100万枚硬币供应，通常被视为分散的资产，可以在货币不确定性和通货膨胀的时代使用来保存财富，尤其是当中央银行施加压力以维持法定货币的价值时。

Emerging markets also play a role, as they are grappling with currency devaluation and high inflation, making Bitcoin a hedge for individuals and businesses.

新兴市场也起着作用，因为它们正在努力货币贬值和高通货膨胀，这使得比特币成为个人和企业的对冲。

This demand is not speculative but driven by the need to safeguard purchasing power, leading to sustained capital inflows and boosting Bitcoin’s global standing.

这种需求不是投机性的，而是由于需要维护购买力的需求而驱动的，从而导致持续的资本流入和提高比特币的全球地位。

The implications of a $49 trillion market cap are significant, as it would place Bitcoin in a unique position, not merely as an asset but as a cornerstone of the global economy.

49万亿美元的市值的含义是显着的，因为它将比特币处于独特的位置，不仅是资产，而且是全球经济的基石。

This has implications for wealth distribution and financial systems, and even the base case of $1.2 million suggests a paradigm shift in the financial landscape.

这对财富分配和金融系统有影响，甚至120万美元的基本案例也表明金融格局的范式转变。

Meanwhile, the $500,000 bear case still implies a transformative leap from current levels, highlighting the magnitude of Ark’s predictions.

同时，$ 500,000的熊案仍然意味着从目前的水平进行了变革，这突出了方舟预测的幅度。

These forecasts are not without challenges, as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and macroeconomic shifts could influence the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.

这些预测并非没有挑战，因为监管变化，技术进步和宏观经济转变可能会影响加密货币的轨迹。

However, Bitcoin’s history of recovering from downturns and the current market dynamics, with institutional inflows and retail enthusiasm converging, lend credence to Ark’s optimistic outlook.

但是，比特币从低迷和当前的市场动态中恢复的历史，机构流入和零售热情融合了，这使Ark的乐观前景充满信心。

As cryptocurrency continues to be a hot topic of discussion, it will be interesting to observe how these predictions unfold and what impact they will have on the cryptocurrency market in the years to come.

随着加密货币仍然是讨论的热门话题，观察这些预测如何进行以及它们将在未来几年中对加密货币市场产生什么影响将是很有趣的。