如果歷史重演，比特幣（BTC）可能會在這段時間內達到週期高點：加密貨幣分析師

在新的策略會議中，加密貨幣交易員 Rekt Capital 告訴他在社群媒體平台 X 上的 481200 名追蹤者，市值最高的加密資產往往會在減半事件後 518546 天達到峰值

A popular crypto analyst has shared his analysis on when Bitcoin (BTC) might reach its cycle high, assuming history were to repeat itself.

一位受歡迎的加密貨幣分析師分享了他對比特幣（BTC）何時可能達到週期高點的分析，假設歷史會重演。

During a recent strategy session, crypto trader Rekt Capital shared his analysis with his 481,200 followers on the social media platform X, highlighting that the top crypto asset by market cap tends to peak 518-546 days following its halving event, which occurs in April every four years.

在最近的一次策略會議上，加密貨幣交易商Rekt Capital 在社群媒體平台X 上與他的481,200 名追蹤者分享了他的分析，強調市值最高的加密資產往往會在減半事件後518-546 天達到峰值，減半事件發生在每年4 月。

“In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving. In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the halving.

「在2015-2017年周期中，比特幣在減半後518天達到頂峰。在2019-2021週期中，比特幣在減半後546天達到高峰。

If history repeats and the next bull market peak occurs 518-546 days after the halving… That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle in mid-September or mid-October 2025.”

如果歷史重演，下一個牛市高峰出現在減半後的 518-546 天……這意味著比特幣可能會在 2025 年 9 月中旬或 10 月中旬在這個週期中達到高峰。

However, Rekt Capital notes that due to the recent crypto market crash, the crypto king’s rate of acceleration has fallen drastically.

然而，Rekt Capital 指出，由於最近的加密市場崩盤，加密王的加速率大幅下降。

“Earlier this year, Bitcoin was accelerating in this cycle by 260 days. Currently however, thanks to this over 3-month consolidation, this rate of acceleration has drastically dropped and is now approximately 150 days.

「今年早些時候，比特幣的周期加速了 260 天。然而目前，由於這超過 3 個月的整合，這一加速率已大幅下降，現在約為 150 天。

The longer Bitcoin consolidates after the halving, the better it will be for resynchronizing this current cycle with the traditional halving cycle.”

比特幣在減半後整合的時間越長，就越有利於當前週期與傳統減半週期的重新同步。

The trader goes on to argue that BTC has likely bottomed out by comparing all BTC pullbacks since February 2023.

該交易員接著認為，透過比較自 2023 年 2 月以來的所有 BTC 回調，BTC 可能已經觸底。

“Here is a list of all Bitcoin pullbacks dating to the bear market bottom of 2022:

「以下是自 2022 年熊市底部以來所有比特幣回調的清單：

Therefore this current pullback is almost an average -22% correction.”

因此，目前的回調幾乎是平均-22% 的修正。

Bitcoin is trading at $56,521 at the time of writing, down 2.6% over the last 24 hours.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 56,521 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌 2.6%。