比特幣（BTC）可能在10月11日達到其周期高峰

比特幣（BTC）在今年早些時候達到了108,786美元的歷史最高點之後，顯示出了新的實力跡象。

Crypto analyst Brett recently shared an intriguing timeline for when Bitcoin (BTC) might reach its ultimate cycle peak. His analysis, posted on X, examines Bitcoin’s price structure and potential trajectory for the remainder of this market cycle.

加密分析師布雷特（Brett）最近為比特幣（BTC）達到最終週期峰時分享了一個有趣的時間表。他在X上發布的分析檢查了比特幣的價格結構和潛在的軌跡。

Bitcoin: Bottom to Present. Present to Top.

比特幣：底部。在上面。

Last two cycles: 903 days from bottom to present161 days from present to top

最後兩個週期：從現在到最高的903天從底部到現在161天

🟦 = The amount of time it's been since the bottom in 2022. I then put that same time (903 days) over the the prior two cycles. 🟩 = The amount of time… pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmuMW

🟦=自2022年底部以來的時間。然後，我將同一時間（903天）放在前兩個週期上。 🟩=時間…pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmumw

— ₿rett (@brett_eth) May 3, 2025

- ₿rett（@brett_eth）2025年5月3日

Brett’s approach looks at two key time periods: “bottom to present” and “present to top.” Studying patterns from the last two cycles, he calculated how many days Bitcoin took to move from cycle bottom to current position, and then projected how much longer until the cycle peak.

布雷特（Brett）的方法著眼於兩個關鍵時期：“底部到現在”和“當前到上面”。他研究了最後兩個循環的模式，他計算了比特幣從周期底部移動到當前位置需要多少天，然後預測到循環峰的時間更長。

According to his chart, we’re currently 903 days from Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. This same 903-day period was marked in previous cycles starting from the 2015 and 2018 bottoms.

根據他的圖表，我們目前距比特幣的2022底部903天。從2015年和2018年的底部開始，以前的周期中標誌著相同的903天期間。

What makes this analysis compelling is the consistency found in previous cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin reached its cycle peak exactly 161 days after this 903-day mark.

使這種分析引人注目的是在先前的周期中發現的一致性。在2017年和2021年，比特幣在這903天后恰好達到了其周期峰值。

The 2017 cycle saw Bitcoin reach a then-record high of around $16,000 after this 161-day window. Similarly, in 2021, BTC reached approximately $69,000 after the same timeframe.

在這個161天的窗戶之後，2017年周期的比特幣達到了當時的紀錄高點約16,000美元。同樣，在2021年，BTC在同一時間表之後達到了約69,000美元。

Historical Patterns Point to October

歷史模式指向十月

If this pattern holds true for the current cycle, Brett projects Bitcoin’s peak will arrive in exactly 161 days from now. This would place the cycle top precisely on October 11, 2025.

如果這種模式在當前週期中是正確的，那麼布雷特項目比特幣的峰將在161天后到達。這將恰好在2025年10月11日將循環頂部放置。

This prediction comes at an interesting time in Bitcoin’s price action. After hitting an all-time high of $108,786 earlier in 2025, many thought the peak had already arrived as prices began trending downward.

在比特幣的價格行動中，這個預測在一個有趣的時刻出現。在2025年前早些時候達到了108,786美元的歷史最高點之後，許多人認為，隨著價格開始下降，高峰已經到來。

However, recent price action has seen Bitcoin regain momentum, leading some to question whether the typical cycle theory still applies to the cryptocurrency market.

但是，最近的價格行動已經使比特幣恢復了動力，導致一些人質疑典型的周期理論是否仍然適用於加密貨幣市場。

The consistency across multiple cycles does give weight to Brett’s analysis. Each previous cycle showed the same 161-day window between the 903-day mark and the ultimate price peak.

多個週期之間的一致性確實使布雷特的分析具有重視。上一個週期在903天標記和最終價格峰之間顯示相同的161天窗口。

However, some market observers have questioned whether Bitcoin still follows these predictable cycles. The initial belief that the bull run had ended in early 2025 now seems premature given Bitcoin’s recent positive price movements.

但是，一些市場觀察家質疑比特幣是否仍然遵循這些可預測的周期。鑑於比特幣最近的積極價格變動，最初的信念是在2025年初結束了，現在已經為時過早。

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $96,500, indicating a slight pullback of about 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite this minor setback, the cryptocurrency remains in close proximity to the psychologically significant $100,000 mark.

比特幣目前的交易約為96,500美元，這表明過去24小時內的略有回調約為1％。儘管這次遇到了輕微的挫折，但加密貨幣仍與心理意義上的100,000美元近距離近似。

The analysis doesn’t account for external factors that might influence Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. Market conditions, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors could all play roles in determining whether the historical pattern repeats.

該分析不能說明可能影響比特幣價格在接下來的幾個月中的外部因素。市場狀況，監管發展和宏觀經濟因素都可以在確定歷史模式是否重複中起著作用。

Brett’s projection relies purely on historical time-based patterns rather than fundamental or technical indicators. While this approach has shown accuracy in previous cycles, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

布雷特的投影純粹依賴於基於歷史的模式，而不是基本或技術指標。儘管這種方法在以前的周期中表現出準確性，但過去的性能並不能保證未來的結果。

As Bitcoin approaches the projected October timeframe, market participants will likely be watching closely to see if this historical pattern maintains its predictive power for a third consecutive cycle.

隨著比特幣接近預計的10月時間表，市場參與者可能會密切關注，以查看這種歷史模式是否保持了連續第三個週期的預測能力。

For now, Bitcoin continues to trade near all-time high levels, with many observing to see if it can reclaim the $100,000 threshold in the coming weeks.

目前，比特幣繼續在歷史最高水平上進行交易，許多人觀察到它是否可以在接下來的幾週內收回100,000美元的門檻。