比特币（BTC）可能在10月11日达到其周期高峰

比特币（BTC）在今年早些时候达到了108,786美元的历史最高点之后，显示出了新的实力迹象。

Crypto analyst Brett recently shared an intriguing timeline for when Bitcoin (BTC) might reach its ultimate cycle peak. His analysis, posted on X, examines Bitcoin’s price structure and potential trajectory for the remainder of this market cycle.

加密分析师布雷特（Brett）最近为比特币（BTC）达到最终周期峰时分享了一个有趣的时间表。他在X上发布的分析检查了比特币的价格结构和潜在的轨迹。

Bitcoin: Bottom to Present. Present to Top.

比特币：底部。在上面。

Last two cycles: 903 days from bottom to present161 days from present to top

最后两个周期：从现在到最高的903天从底部到现在161天

🟦 = The amount of time it's been since the bottom in 2022. I then put that same time (903 days) over the the prior two cycles. 🟩 = The amount of time… pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmuMW

🟦=自2022年底部以来的时间。然后，我将同一时间（903天）放在前两个周期上。 🟩=时间…pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmumw

— ₿rett (@brett_eth) May 3, 2025

- ₿rett（@brett_eth）2025年5月3日

Brett’s approach looks at two key time periods: “bottom to present” and “present to top.” Studying patterns from the last two cycles, he calculated how many days Bitcoin took to move from cycle bottom to current position, and then projected how much longer until the cycle peak.

布雷特（Brett）的方法着眼于两个关键时期：“底部到现在”和“当前到上面”。他研究了最后两个循环的模式，他计算了比特币从周期底部移动到当前位置需要多少天，然后预测到循环峰的时间更长。

According to his chart, we’re currently 903 days from Bitcoin’s 2022 bottom. This same 903-day period was marked in previous cycles starting from the 2015 and 2018 bottoms.

根据他的图表，我们目前距比特币的2022底部903天。从2015年和2018年的底部开始，以前的周期中标志着相同的903天期间。

What makes this analysis compelling is the consistency found in previous cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin reached its cycle peak exactly 161 days after this 903-day mark.

使这种分析引人注目的是在先前的周期中发现的一致性。在2017年和2021年，比特币在这903天后恰好达到了其周期峰值。

The 2017 cycle saw Bitcoin reach a then-record high of around $16,000 after this 161-day window. Similarly, in 2021, BTC reached approximately $69,000 after the same timeframe.

在这个161天的窗户之后，2017年周期的比特币达到了当时的纪录高点约16,000美元。同样，在2021年，BTC在同一时间表之后达到了约69,000美元。

Historical Patterns Point to October

历史模式指向十月

If this pattern holds true for the current cycle, Brett projects Bitcoin’s peak will arrive in exactly 161 days from now. This would place the cycle top precisely on October 11, 2025.

如果这种模式在当前周期中是正确的，那么布雷特项目比特币的峰将在161天后到达。这将恰好在2025年10月11日将循环顶部放置。

This prediction comes at an interesting time in Bitcoin’s price action. After hitting an all-time high of $108,786 earlier in 2025, many thought the peak had already arrived as prices began trending downward.

在比特币的价格行动中，这个预测在一个有趣的时刻出现。在2025年前早些时候达到了108,786美元的历史最高点之后，许多人认为，随着价格开始下降，高峰已经到来。

However, recent price action has seen Bitcoin regain momentum, leading some to question whether the typical cycle theory still applies to the cryptocurrency market.

但是，最近的价格行动已经使比特币恢复了动力，导致一些人质疑典型的周期理论是否仍然适用于加密货币市场。

The consistency across multiple cycles does give weight to Brett’s analysis. Each previous cycle showed the same 161-day window between the 903-day mark and the ultimate price peak.

多个周期之间的一致性确实使布雷特的分析具有重视。上一个周期在903天标记和最终价格峰之间显示相同的161天窗口。

However, some market observers have questioned whether Bitcoin still follows these predictable cycles. The initial belief that the bull run had ended in early 2025 now seems premature given Bitcoin’s recent positive price movements.

但是，一些市场观察家质疑比特币是否仍然遵循这些可预测的周期。鉴于比特币最近的积极价格变动，最初的信念是在2025年初结束了，现在已经为时过早。

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $96,500, indicating a slight pullback of about 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite this minor setback, the cryptocurrency remains in close proximity to the psychologically significant $100,000 mark.

比特币目前的交易约为96,500美元，这表明过去24小时内的略有回调约为1％。尽管这次遇到了轻微的挫折，但加密货币仍与心理意义上的100,000美元近距离近似。

The analysis doesn’t account for external factors that might influence Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. Market conditions, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic factors could all play roles in determining whether the historical pattern repeats.

该分析不能说明可能影响比特币价格在接下来的几个月中的外部因素。市场状况，监管发展和宏观经济因素都可以在确定历史模式是否重复中起着作用。

Brett’s projection relies purely on historical time-based patterns rather than fundamental or technical indicators. While this approach has shown accuracy in previous cycles, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

布雷特的投影纯粹依赖于基于历史的模式，而不是基本或技术指标。尽管这种方法在以前的周期中表现出准确性，但过去的性能并不能保证未来的结果。

As Bitcoin approaches the projected October timeframe, market participants will likely be watching closely to see if this historical pattern maintains its predictive power for a third consecutive cycle.

随着比特币接近预计的10月时间表，市场参与者可能会密切关注，以查看这种历史模式是否保持了连续第三个周期的预测能力。

For now, Bitcoin continues to trade near all-time high levels, with many observing to see if it can reclaim the $100,000 threshold in the coming weeks.

目前，比特币继续在历史最高水平上进行交易，许多人观察到它是否可以在接下来的几周内收回100,000美元的门槛。