CryptoQuant 執行長表示，比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在 2024 年第四季反彈

從日線圖的形態來看，比特幣多頭正在努力尋找動力。儘管8月8日有所擴張，但扭轉了8月5日的虧損

Bitcoin price action is consolidating in the daily chart, lacking the momentum to follow through on the August 8 bull bar. Still, the formation is bullish, and analysts expect a H2 2024 rally.

比特幣價格走勢在日線圖上盤整，缺乏跟進 8 月 8 日多頭市場的動機。儘管如此，該形態仍看漲，分析師預計 2024 年下半年將反彈。

Bitcoin price action is consolidating within the August 8 bull bar, lacking the momentum to follow through on the breakout. Still, the formation is bullish, and analysts expect a H2 2024 rally, especially with whales preparing to drive prices higher in Q4.

比特幣價格走勢正在 8 月 8 日牛市線內盤整，缺乏後續突破的動力。儘管如此，該形態還是看漲的，分析師預計 2024 年下半年會出現反彈，尤其是在鯨魚準備在第四季推高價格的情況下。

Bitcoin price analysis: Lack of momentum, but bullish outlook for H2 2024

比特幣價格分析：缺乏動力，但 2024 年下半年前景樂觀

Bitcoin price stalled in the past few trading days, consolidating within the August 8 bull bar. This formation suggests that buyers managed to reverse the losses of August 5, but follow-through was lacking. This dull activity is keeping prices within the bull flag, trending within the August 8 bull bar. Although buyers are upbeat, the dull range is expected, especially looking at historical performance after Halving.

比特幣價格在過去幾個交易日停滯不前，在 8 月 8 日的牛市線內盤整。這一形態表明買家成功扭轉了 8 月 5 日的損失，但缺乏後續行動。這種平淡的活動使價格保持在牛旗內，趨勢在 8 月 8 日的牛市柱線內。儘管買家很樂觀，但預計價格區間將會平淡，尤其是考慮到減半後的歷史表現。

Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, took to X and noted that prices tend to consolidate whenever the network halves rewards. This sideways movement tends to last for the better part of the year before prices soar in the last quarter as whales intervene.

CryptoQuant 的執行長兼創辦人 Ki Young Ju 表示，每當網路獎勵減半時，價格就會趨於整合。這種橫向走勢往往會持續一年中的大部分時間，然後在最後一個季度隨著鯨魚的介入而價格飆升。

In the last bull cycle, when Bitcoin halved network rewards in 2020, prices moved sideways, and prices only inch higher in the last quarter of the year. Comparing the current state of price action to what happened then, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will recover. Ju said this bullish outlook is because “whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.”

在上一個牛市週期中，當比特幣在 2020 年將網路獎勵減半時，價格橫盤整理，並且在今年最後一個季度價格僅小幅上漲。將目前的價格走勢與當時發生的情況進行比較，比特幣很有可能會復甦。 Ju表示，這種樂觀的前景是因為“鯨魚不會讓第四季度同比表現持平而變得無聊。”

Analysts consider Bitcoin Halving a bullish event, at least looking at how prices have evolved. Whenever the network halves miner rewards, the coin becomes deflationary.

分析師認為比特幣減半是個看漲事件，至少從價格的演變來看是如此。每當網路將礦工獎勵減半時，代幣就會出現通貨緊縮。

Half the number of tokens finds its way to the circulating supply. Prices will tick higher if the demand remains the same (or rises). This simple supply and demand dynamic is whyксперты expect prices to rally in H2 2024.

一半數量的代幣進入了流通供應。如果需求不變（或上升），價格將會上漲。這種簡單的供需動態就是 ксперты 預計價格在 2024 年下半年上漲的原因。

Bitcoin price analysis: Impact of spot ETFs, miner liquidation, and interest rates cut

比特幣價格分析：現貨 ETF、礦商清算與降息的影響

The expected supply crisis following the Halving on April 20 is why most analysts still believe the coin will break all-time highs. This confidence is due to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. Since then, leading issuers, including Fidelity and BlackRock, have bought billions of dollars worth of BTC.  

4 月 20 日減半後預期的供應危機是大多數分析師仍然相信代幣將突破歷史新高的原因。這種信心源自於 1 月現貨比特幣 ETF 的批准。從那時起，包括富達和貝萊德在內的主要發行人已經購買了價值數十億美元的比特幣。

Besides the institutional demand for BTC, miners have decreased their liquidation. The hash rate fell after weak miners offloaded billions of coins in June. However, the hash rate has improved in the past few weeks, pointing to renewed confidence from miners who bought new gear to stay competitive despite the lower rewards.

除了機構對比特幣的需求外，礦商也減少了清算。在 6 月疲弱的礦工拋售數十億枚代幣後，哈希率下降。然而，過去幾週算力有所提高，這表明礦工們重新燃起信心，儘管回報較低，但他們購買了新設備以保持競爭力。

In September, the United States Federal Reserve will likely slash interest rates. As inflation falls and the central bank eases, investors may consider BTC a hedge against inflation. This will favor bulls, who might build momentum and break all-time highs.

9月份，聯準會可能會大幅降息。隨著通膨下降和央行放鬆政策，投資者可能會考慮使用比特幣來對沖通膨。這將有利於多頭，他們可能會增強勢頭並突破歷史新高。