CryptoQuant 首席执行官表示，比特币 (BTC) 可能会在 2024 年第四季度反弹

从日线图的形态来看，比特币多头正在努力寻找动力。尽管8月8日有所扩张，但扭转了8月5日的亏损

Bitcoin price action is consolidating in the daily chart, lacking the momentum to follow through on the August 8 bull bar. Still, the formation is bullish, and analysts expect a H2 2024 rally.

比特币价格走势在日线图上盘整，缺乏跟进 8 月 8 日牛市的动力。尽管如此，该形态仍看涨，分析师预计 2024 年下半年将出现反弹。

Bitcoin price action is consolidating within the August 8 bull bar, lacking the momentum to follow through on the breakout. Still, the formation is bullish, and analysts expect a H2 2024 rally, especially with whales preparing to drive prices higher in Q4.

比特币价格走势正在 8 月 8 日的牛市线内盘整，缺乏后续突破的动力。尽管如此，该形态还是看涨的，分析师预计 2024 年下半年会出现反弹，尤其是在鲸鱼准备在第四季度推高价格的情况下。

Bitcoin price analysis: Lack of momentum, but bullish outlook for H2 2024

比特币价格分析：缺乏动力，但 2024 年下半年前景乐观

Bitcoin price stalled in the past few trading days, consolidating within the August 8 bull bar. This formation suggests that buyers managed to reverse the losses of August 5, but follow-through was lacking. This dull activity is keeping prices within the bull flag, trending within the August 8 bull bar. Although buyers are upbeat, the dull range is expected, especially looking at historical performance after Halving.

比特币价格在过去几个交易日停滞不前，在 8 月 8 日的牛市线内盘整。这一形态表明买家成功扭转了 8 月 5 日的损失，但缺乏后续行动。这种平淡的活动使价格保持在牛旗内，趋势在 8 月 8 日的牛市柱线内。尽管买家很乐观，但预计价格区间将会平淡，尤其是考虑到减半后的历史表现。

Ki Young Ju, the CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, took to X and noted that prices tend to consolidate whenever the network halves rewards. This sideways movement tends to last for the better part of the year before prices soar in the last quarter as whales intervene.

CryptoQuant 的首席执行官兼创始人 Ki Young Ju 对 X 表示，每当网络奖励减半时，价格就会趋于整合。这种横向走势往往会持续一年中的大部分时间，然后在最后一个季度随着鲸鱼的介入而价格飙升。

In the last bull cycle, when Bitcoin halved network rewards in 2020, prices moved sideways, and prices only inch higher in the last quarter of the year. Comparing the current state of price action to what happened then, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will recover. Ju said this bullish outlook is because “whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance.”

在上一个牛市周期中，当比特币在 2020 年将网络奖励减半时，价格横盘整理，并且在今年最后一个季度价格仅小幅上涨。将当前的价格走势与当时发生的情况进行比较，比特币很有可能会复苏。 Ju表示，这种乐观的前景是因为“鲸鱼不会让第四季度同比表现持平而变得无聊。”

Analysts consider Bitcoin Halving a bullish event, at least looking at how prices have evolved. Whenever the network halves miner rewards, the coin becomes deflationary.

分析师认为比特币减半是一个看涨事件，至少从价格的演变来看是这样。每当网络将矿工奖励减半时，代币就会出现通货紧缩。

Half the number of tokens finds its way to the circulating supply. Prices will tick higher if the demand remains the same (or rises). This simple supply and demand dynamic is whyксперты expect prices to rally in H2 2024.

一半数量的代币进入了流通供应。如果需求保持不变（或上升），价格将会上涨。这种简单的供需动态就是 ксперты 预计价格在 2024 年下半年上涨的原因。

Bitcoin price analysis: Impact of spot ETFs, miner liquidation, and interest rates cut

比特币价格分析：现货 ETF、矿商清算和降息的影响

The expected supply crisis following the Halving on April 20 is why most analysts still believe the coin will break all-time highs. This confidence is due to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. Since then, leading issuers, including Fidelity and BlackRock, have bought billions of dollars worth of BTC.  

4 月 20 日减半后预期的供应危机是大多数分析师仍然相信代币将突破历史新高的原因。这种信心源于 1 月份现货比特币 ETF 的批准。从那时起，包括富达和贝莱德在内的主要发行人已经购买了价值数十亿美元的比特币。

Besides the institutional demand for BTC, miners have decreased their liquidation. The hash rate fell after weak miners offloaded billions of coins in June. However, the hash rate has improved in the past few weeks, pointing to renewed confidence from miners who bought new gear to stay competitive despite the lower rewards.

除了机构对比特币的需求外，矿商也减少了清算。在 6 月份疲弱的矿工抛售数十亿枚代币后，哈希率下降。然而，过去几周算力有所提高，这表明矿工们重新燃起信心，尽管回报较低，但他们购买了新设备以保持竞争力。

In September, the United States Federal Reserve will likely slash interest rates. As inflation falls and the central bank eases, investors may consider BTC a hedge against inflation. This will favor bulls, who might build momentum and break all-time highs.

9月份，美联储可能会大幅降息。随着通胀下降和央行放松政策，投资者可能会考虑使用比特币来对冲通胀。这将有利于多头，他们可能会增强势头并打破历史新高。