Glassnode 創辦人表示，為什麼比特幣 (BTC) 可能會漲至 7 萬美元

Glassnode 創辦人 Jan Happel 和 Yann Allemann 表示，比特幣 [BTC] 處於重新測試 7 萬美元的有利位置。

Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by Negentropic on X, shared their crypto insights on BTC’s potential to retest $70K.

Glassnode 創辦人 Jan Happel 和 Yann Allemann（X 上的 Negentropic）分享了他們對 BTC 重新測試 7 萬美元潛力的加密貨幣見解。

According to them, speculators who are planning to short the crypto at $68K or $69K might face heavy liquidations.

據他們稱，計劃以 6.8 萬或 6.9 萬美元做空加密貨幣的投機者可能會面臨大量清算。

“Shorts eyeing this long-term #Bitcoin compression range will be liquidated once the $68k to $69k level is surpassed…”

「一旦超過 68,000 美元至 69,000 美元的水平，關注這一長期 #Bitcoin 壓縮範圍的空頭將被清算…”

The compression channel is part of the megaphone pattern that was highlighted as BTC continues to consolidate after hitting a new high in March.

壓縮通道是擴音器模式的一部分，隨著 BTC 在 3 月觸及新高後繼續盤整，這種模式被凸顯出來。

Why BTC might rally to $70K

為什麼 BTC 可能會漲至 7 萬美元

As highlighted by the Glassnode founders, via their crypto insights platform Swissblock, BTC could hit $70K due to the current low-risk levels and an uptick in network activity.

正如 Glassnode 創辦人所強調的那樣，透過他們的加密貨幣洞察平台 Swissblock，由於當前的低風險等級和網路活動的增加，BTC 可能會達到 7 萬美元。

The founders also noted that BTC’s rally to $64K flipped the asset’s risk profile from high to low.

創辦人也指出，BTC 漲至 6.4 萬美元使該資產的風險狀況從高轉為低。

Interestingly, the recoveries in May, June, and July occurred after the asset flashed a low-risk profile. Hence, the trend could repeat and push the crypto to $70K.

有趣的是，5 月、6 月和 7 月的復甦發生在該資產表現出低風險特徵之後。因此，這種趨勢可能會重複並將加密貨幣推至 7 萬美元。

Furthermore, Swissblock pointed out the improving Bitcoin network growth, which could confirm the sustainability of the uptrend.

此外，Swissblock 指出比特幣網路成長不斷改善，這可以證實上升趨勢的可持續性。

“The network growth is resuming its upward trajectory and even challenged the highs seen in July, where we not only witnessed notable growth but also the breaking of a downward movement that had occurred post-halving.”

「網路成長正在恢復上升軌道，甚至挑戰了 7 月的高點，我們不僅見證了顯著的成長，而且打破了減半後出現的下降趨勢。”

While network liquidity was lagging behind growth, the analytics platform highlighted signs of a slow improvement that could benefit BTC.

雖然網路流動性落後於成長，但分析平台強調了緩慢改善的跡象，這可能有利於比特幣。

Additionally, the negative funding rates in BTC perpetual markets could amplify the rally, according to Swissblock.

此外，據 Swissblock 稱，比特幣永續市場的負融資利率可能會放大漲勢。

“The funding rates of perpetual futures have not only remained negative since our last reading but have also increased in magnitude: Highly unusual for times of bullishness. This positioning is such that it may fuel an even stronger rise in case of their liquidations.”

「自從我們上次解讀以來，永續期貨的融資利率不僅保持為負值，而且還在大幅上升：這在看漲時期非常不尋常。這種定位可能會在他們被清算的情況下推動更強勁的上漲。

The low BTC funding rates were linked to the prevalence of US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have a higher price impact compared to derivative markets.

比特幣融資利率較低與美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的盛行有關，與衍生性商品市場相比，該基金對價格的影響更大。

Moreover, Swissblock speculated that the recent staking of BTC on the Babylon staking platform might have contributed to the negative funding rates.

此外，Swissblock 推測最近在 Babylon 質押平台上質押 BTC 可能導致了負資金利率。

VanEck also shared a similar outlook for the recovery, highlighting a comparable risk appetite for BTC during previous market recoveries.

VanEck 也對復甦抱持類似的看法，強調在先前的市場復甦期間，比特幣的風險偏好相當。

However, a CryptoQuant analyst warned that the price of BTC is being driven by over-leverage (Open Interest rates), which could lead to a price reversal as seen in past trends.

然而，一位 CryptoQuant 分析師警告稱，比特幣的價格是由過度槓桿（未平倉利率）驅動的，這可能會導致價格逆轉，就像過去的趨勢一樣。

“Same setup again? Open Interest went up harder than Bitcoin price. Last two time, it was a quick win.”

「又是同樣的設定嗎？未平倉合約的上漲幅度超過了比特幣價格。前兩次都是快速獲勝。