Glassnode 创始人表示，为什么比特币 (BTC) 可能会上涨至 7 万美元

Glassnode 创始人 Jan Happel 和 Yann Allemann 表示，比特币 [BTC] 处于重新测试 7 万美元的有利位置。

Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by Negentropic on X, shared their crypto insights on BTC’s potential to retest $70K.

Glassnode 创始人 Jan Happel 和 Yann Allemann（在 X 上被称为 Negentropic）分享了他们对 BTC 重新测试 7 万美元潜力的加密货币见解。

According to them, speculators who are planning to short the crypto at $68K or $69K might face heavy liquidations.

据他们称，计划以 6.8 万或 6.9 万美元做空加密货币的投机者可能会面临大量清算。

“Shorts eyeing this long-term #Bitcoin compression range will be liquidated once the $68k to $69k level is surpassed…”

“一旦超过 68,000 美元至 69,000 美元的水平，关注这一长期 #Bitcoin 压缩范围的空头将被清算……”

The compression channel is part of the megaphone pattern that was highlighted as BTC continues to consolidate after hitting a new high in March.

压缩通道是扩音器模式的一部分，随着 BTC 在 3 月份触及新高后继续盘整，这一模式被凸显出来。

Why BTC might rally to $70K

为什么 BTC 可能会涨至 7 万美元

As highlighted by the Glassnode founders, via their crypto insights platform Swissblock, BTC could hit $70K due to the current low-risk levels and an uptick in network activity.

正如 Glassnode 创始人强调的那样，通过他们的加密货币洞察平台 Swissblock，由于当前的低风险水平和网络活动的增加，BTC 可能会达到 7 万美元。

The founders also noted that BTC’s rally to $64K flipped the asset’s risk profile from high to low.

创始人还指出，BTC 涨至 6.4 万美元使该资产的风险状况从高转为低。

Interestingly, the recoveries in May, June, and July occurred after the asset flashed a low-risk profile. Hence, the trend could repeat and push the crypto to $70K.

有趣的是，5 月、6 月和 7 月的复苏发生在该资产表现出低风险特征之后。因此，这种趋势可能会重复并将加密货币推至 7 万美元。

Furthermore, Swissblock pointed out the improving Bitcoin network growth, which could confirm the sustainability of the uptrend.

此外，Swissblock 指出比特币网络增长不断改善，这可以证实上升趋势的可持续性。

“The network growth is resuming its upward trajectory and even challenged the highs seen in July, where we not only witnessed notable growth but also the breaking of a downward movement that had occurred post-halving.”

“网络增长正在恢复上升轨道，甚至挑战了 7 月份的高点，我们不仅见证了显着的增长，而且打破了减半后出现的下降趋势。”

While network liquidity was lagging behind growth, the analytics platform highlighted signs of a slow improvement that could benefit BTC.

虽然网络流动性落后于增长，但分析平台强调了缓慢改善的迹象，这可能有利于比特币。

Additionally, the negative funding rates in BTC perpetual markets could amplify the rally, according to Swissblock.

此外，据 Swissblock 称，比特币永续市场的负融资利率可能会放大涨势。

“The funding rates of perpetual futures have not only remained negative since our last reading but have also increased in magnitude: Highly unusual for times of bullishness. This positioning is such that it may fuel an even stronger rise in case of their liquidations.”

“自我们上次解读以来，永续期货的融资利率不仅保持为负值，而且还在大幅上升：这在看涨时期非常不寻常。这种定位可能会在他们被清算的情况下推动更强劲的上涨。”

The low BTC funding rates were linked to the prevalence of US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have a higher price impact compared to derivative markets.

比特币融资利率较低与美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的盛行有关，与衍生品市场相比，该基金对价格的影响更大。

Moreover, Swissblock speculated that the recent staking of BTC on the Babylon staking platform might have contributed to the negative funding rates.

此外，Swissblock 推测最近在 Babylon 质押平台上质押 BTC 可能导致了负资金利率。

VanEck also shared a similar outlook for the recovery, highlighting a comparable risk appetite for BTC during previous market recoveries.

VanEck 也对复苏抱有类似的看法，强调在之前的市场复苏期间，比特币的风险偏好相当。

However, a CryptoQuant analyst warned that the price of BTC is being driven by over-leverage (Open Interest rates), which could lead to a price reversal as seen in past trends.

然而，一位 CryptoQuant 分析师警告称，比特币的价格是由过度杠杆（未平仓利率）驱动的，这可能会导致价格逆转，就像过去的趋势一样。

“Same setup again? Open Interest went up harder than Bitcoin price. Last two time, it was a quick win.”

“又是同样的设置吗？未平仓合约的上涨幅度超过了比特币价格。前两次都是快速获胜。”