分析師解釋說，比特幣（BTC）反彈在觸頂之前仍有上漲空間

一位分析師根據該指標的數據解釋了比特幣反彈在觸頂之前仍有上漲空間。

An analyst has shared his thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price rally and how an indicator could be suggesting that there’s still more steam left in the rally.

一位分析師分享了他對最近比特幣價格上漲的看法，以及一個指標如何表明上漲仍有更多動力。

According to the analyst, the Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO) is still indicating that the top of this rally may not have been reached yet. The indicator combines four different metrics to create an oscillating value around the zero mark.

分析師表示，比特幣宏觀振盪器（BMO）仍然表明本次反彈可能尚未達到頂峰。此指標結合了四種不同的指標，以建立圍繞零標記的振盪值。

The indicators used in the BMO are the market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) ratio, Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) ratio, and Sharpe ratio.

BMO 使用的指標包括市值與實現價值 (MVRV) 比率、成交量加權平均價格 (VWAP) 比率、累積價值銷毀天數 (CVDD) 比率和夏普比率。

The chart below shows how the oscillator based on these metrics has fluctuated in value over the past few Bitcoin cycles.

下圖顯示了基於這些指標的振盪器在過去幾個比特幣週期中的價值波動。

Tops in the cryptocurrency’s price have historically coincided with the metric reaching relatively high levels. For instance, the 2013 and 2021 tops occurred when the indicator breached the 1.8 level, while the 2017 peak occurred when the oscillator hit 2.4.

從歷史上看，加密貨幣價格的頂部與達到相對較高水平的指標一致。例如，2013 年和 2021 年的頂部發生在該指標突破 1.8 水準時，而 2017 年的高峰發生在該指標觸及 2.4 時。

So far, in the current rally, the oscillator has achieved a peak value of 1.2. The high coincided with the asset’s all-time high (ATH) price, which continues to be the top of the run thus far.

到目前為止，在目前的反彈中，振盪器已經達到了1.2的峰值。該高點與該資產的歷史高點（ATH）價格一致，該價格仍然是迄今為止的最高點。

However, when considering the historical precedent, this value doesn’t seem to be high enough for the top to have been cyclical. As the coin’s price has consolidated since this high, the oscillator has cooled off, now hitting just 0.69.

然而，考慮到歷史先例，這個值似乎還不夠高，不足以讓頂部具有週期性。隨著代幣價格自如此高以來一直盤整，振盪指標已經冷卻下來，目前僅觸及 0.69。

Thus, the asset has gained more distance from the zone where tops have occurred in the past. “This 2.5 months of consolidation under bullish demand has been very good for Bitcoin, it means the price has more room to run before topping out,” Woo said.

因此，該資產與過去出現頂部的區域的距離越來越遠。 Woo 表示：“在看漲需求下，這 2.5 個月的盤整對比特幣來說非常有利，這意味著價格在見頂之前還有更多的運行空間。”

The analyst suggests that BTC could now have 2 to 3 levels of the BMO to climb before reaching the macro top.

分析師表示，在達到宏觀頂部之前，BTC 現在可能需要攀升 2 到 3 個 BMO 水平。

Woo also highlighted a potential positive sign for Bitcoin regarding its net capital flows. A chart showing this metric’s trend over the last few years is shown below.

吳也強調了比特幣在淨資本流動方面的潛在積極跡象。下圖顯示了該指標在過去幾年中的趨勢。

The chart shows that net capital flows into Bitcoin were quite high during the surge toward the price ATH, but the money stopped flowing in as the asset fell into sideways movement.

圖表顯示，在 ATH 價格飆升期間，流入比特幣的淨資本相當高，但隨著資產陷入橫盤整理，資金停止流入。

However, in May, the net flows have finally reversed the trend and are once again on the rise. This fresh demand can naturally be bullish for the cryptocurrency’s value.

但到了5月份，淨流量終於扭轉了趨勢，再次呈現上升趨勢。這種新的需求自然會看好加密貨幣的價值。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin surged above the $70,500 level earlier, but the coin has since slumped back down, now trading around $67,800.

比特幣早些時候飆升至 70,500 美元以上，但此後又回落，目前交易價格約為 67,800 美元。