分析师解释说，比特币（BTC）反弹在触顶之前仍有上涨空间

一位分析师根据该指标的数据解释了比特币反弹在触顶之前仍有上涨空间。

An analyst has shared his thoughts on the recent Bitcoin price rally and how an indicator could be suggesting that there’s still more steam left in the rally.

一位分析师分享了他对最近比特币价格上涨的看法，以及一个指标如何表明上涨仍有更多动力。

According to the analyst, the Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO) is still indicating that the top of this rally may not have been reached yet. The indicator combines four different metrics to create an oscillating value around the zero mark.

分析师表示，比特币宏观振荡器（BMO）仍然表明本次反弹可能尚未达到顶峰。该指标结合了四种不同的指标，以创建围绕零标记的振荡值。

The indicators used in the BMO are the market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) ratio, Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD) ratio, and Sharpe ratio.

BMO 使用的指标包括市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 比率、成交量加权平均价格 (VWAP) 比率、累积价值销毁天数 (CVDD) 比率和夏普比率。

The chart below shows how the oscillator based on these metrics has fluctuated in value over the past few Bitcoin cycles.

下图显示了基于这些指标的振荡器在过去几个比特币周期中的价值波动情况。

Tops in the cryptocurrency’s price have historically coincided with the metric reaching relatively high levels. For instance, the 2013 and 2021 tops occurred when the indicator breached the 1.8 level, while the 2017 peak occurred when the oscillator hit 2.4.

从历史上看，加密货币价格的顶部与达到相对较高水平的指标一致。例如，2013 年和 2021 年的顶部发生在该指标突破 1.8 水平时，而 2017 年的峰值发生在该指标触及 2.4 时。

So far, in the current rally, the oscillator has achieved a peak value of 1.2. The high coincided with the asset’s all-time high (ATH) price, which continues to be the top of the run thus far.

到目前为止，在当前的反弹中，振荡器已经达到了1.2的峰值。该高点与该资产的历史高点（ATH）价格一致，该价格仍然是迄今为止的最高点。

However, when considering the historical precedent, this value doesn’t seem to be high enough for the top to have been cyclical. As the coin’s price has consolidated since this high, the oscillator has cooled off, now hitting just 0.69.

然而，考虑到历史先例，这个值似乎还不够高，不足以让顶部具有周期性。随着代币价格自如此高位以来一直盘整，振荡指标已经冷却下来，目前仅触及 0.69。

Thus, the asset has gained more distance from the zone where tops have occurred in the past. “This 2.5 months of consolidation under bullish demand has been very good for Bitcoin, it means the price has more room to run before topping out,” Woo said.

因此，该资产与过去出现顶部的区域的距离越来越远。 Woo 表示：“在看涨需求下，这 2.5 个月的盘整对比特币来说非常有利，这意味着价格在见顶之前还有更多的运行空间。”

The analyst suggests that BTC could now have 2 to 3 levels of the BMO to climb before reaching the macro top.

分析师表示，在达到宏观顶部之前，BTC 现在可能需要攀升 2 到 3 个 BMO 水平。

Woo also highlighted a potential positive sign for Bitcoin regarding its net capital flows. A chart showing this metric’s trend over the last few years is shown below.

吴还强调了比特币在净资本流动方面的潜在积极迹象。下图显示了该指标在过去几年中的趋势。

The chart shows that net capital flows into Bitcoin were quite high during the surge toward the price ATH, but the money stopped flowing in as the asset fell into sideways movement.

图表显示，在 ATH 价格飙升期间，流入比特币的净资本相当高，但随着资产陷入横盘整理，资金停止流入。

However, in May, the net flows have finally reversed the trend and are once again on the rise. This fresh demand can naturally be bullish for the cryptocurrency’s value.

但到了5月份，净流量终于扭转了趋势，再次呈现上升趋势。这种新的需求自然会看好加密货币的价值。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin surged above the $70,500 level earlier, but the coin has since slumped back down, now trading around $67,800.

比特币早些时候飙升至 70,500 美元以上，但此后又回落，目前交易价格约为 67,800 美元。