分析師解釋比特幣 (BTC) 目標價為 79,600 美元：原因如下

一位分析師解釋說，如果 BTC 能夠保持在定價模型的這一重要水平之上，那麼比特幣將「可能上漲以測試」79,600 美元的水平。

A recent analysis by an analyst has highlighted the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to rally toward the $79,600 level if it manages to sustain its momentum above a crucial level.

一位分析師最近的一項分析強調，如果比特幣 (BTC) 能夠將其勢頭維持在關鍵水平之上，那麼它就有可能反彈至 79,600 美元的水平。

Fresh Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Band Currently at $79,600

新的比特幣 MVRV 定價區間目前為 79,600 美元

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez discusses the possible next destination for BTC using an on-chain pricing model. The model utilizes the widely followed “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) indicator.

在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析師 Ali Martinez 使用鏈上定價模型討論了 BTC 可能的下一個目的地。此模型利用廣泛遵循的「市場價值與已實現價值」(MVRV) 指標。

This metric indicates how the value that Bitcoin investors are currently holding (i.e., the market capitalization) compares to what they put in (i.e., the realized capitalization).

此指標顯示比特幣投資者目前持有的價值（即市值）與他們投入的價值（即已實現資本化）相比如何。

When the metric’s value is above 1, it means that the holders, on the whole, are sitting on a value greater than their initial investment, which is to say they’re in net profit. On the other hand, an MVRV below this threshold implies that the market is underwater overall at that point in time.

當該指標的值高於 1 時，表示持有者整體上所持有的價值大於其初始投資，也就是說，他們獲得了淨利潤。另一方面，MVRV 低於此閾值意味著市場當時整體處於水下狀態。

There are several pricing models based on this metric, but in the context of the present discussion, the “MVR2 extreme deviation pricing bands” are relevant.

有多種基於此指標的定價模型，但在目前討論的背景下，「MVR2 極端偏差定價範圍」是相關的。

This model's standard deviations around the MVRV mean signify the relevant price levels. Shown below is a chart presenting how these levels currently appear for Bitcoin.

此模型圍繞 MVRV 平均值的標準差表示相關的價格水準。下圖展示了比特幣目前的這些水準。

As the graph shows, Bitcoin is currently trading above the +0.5σ pricing band. At the price level corresponding to this 0.5σ level ($66,800 at the moment), BTC’s MVRV value becomes 0.5 standard deviations above its mean value.

如圖所示，比特幣目前的交易價格高於 +0.5σ 定價區間。在與這個 0.5σ 水準相對應的價格水準（目前為 66,800 美元），BTC 的 MVRV 值比其平均值高出 0.5 個標準差。

According to this model, the next level of interest is the +1σ, where the MVRV is 1 standard deviation above its mean. The price level at which the MVRV ratio would satisfy this condition is $79,600.

根據此模型，下一個感興趣的水平是 +1σ，其中 MVRV 比其平均值高 1 個標準差。 MVRV 比率符合此條件的價格水準為 79,600 美元。

Historically, tops in the cryptocurrency have tended to form when the price breaches past this MVRV pricing band level. From the chart, it's evident that BTC crossed this level earlier this year on its way to setting its new all-time high, which still marks the peak of the rally so far.

從歷史上看，當價格突破 MVRV 定價區間水準時，加密貨幣往往會形成頂部。從圖表中可以明顯看出，比特幣在今年早些時候就突破了這一水平，並創下了歷史新高，這仍然標誌著迄今為止反彈的頂峰。

Ali suggests that if Bitcoin can continue to hold above $66,800 (the +0.5σ pricing band level), the asset will “likely rise to test the 1.0σ pricing band at $79,600.” A potential rally to this level would entail an increase of over 14% for BTC from its current price.

Ali 表示，如果比特幣能夠繼續保持在 66,800 美元（+0.5σ 定價區間水準）之上，該資產「可能會上漲以測試 79,600 美元的 1.0σ 定價區間」。如果比特幣價格上漲至這一水平，則其價格將比當前價格上漲 14% 以上。

Why do tops tend to be more probable to happen above the +1σ MVRV pricing band? The explanation could be that when the MVRV reaches values this high, the investors are holding substantial profits, making them more likely to participate in a mass selloff.

為什麼頂部更有可能出現在 +1σ MVRV 定價區間之上？解釋可能是，當 MVRV 達到如此高的價值時，投資者持有可觀利潤，使他們更有可能參與大規模拋售。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin underwent a retest of the +0.5σ pricing band earlier, but the level has managed to hold so far, with the coin having rebounded to $69,500 since then.

比特幣早些時候重新測試了 +0.5σ 定價區間，但迄今為止一直保持在這一水平，此後比特幣已反彈至 69,500 美元。