分析师解释比特币 (BTC) 价格目标为 79,600 美元：原因如下

一位分析师解释说，如果 BTC 能够保持在定价模型的这一重要水平之上，那么比特币将“可能上涨以测试”79,600 美元的水平。

A recent analysis by an analyst has highlighted the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to rally toward the $79,600 level if it manages to sustain its momentum above a crucial level.

一位分析师最近的一项分析强调，如果比特币 (BTC) 能够将其势头维持在关键水平之上，那么它就有可能反弹至 79,600 美元的水平。

Fresh Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Band Currently at $79,600

新的比特币 MVRV 定价区间目前为 79,600 美元

In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez discusses the possible next destination for BTC using an on-chain pricing model. The model utilizes the widely followed “Market Value to Realized Value” (MVRV) indicator.

在 X 上的一篇新文章中，分析师 Ali Martinez 使用链上定价模型讨论了 BTC 可能的下一个目的地。该模型利用广泛遵循的“市场价值与已实现价值”(MVRV) 指标。

This metric indicates how the value that Bitcoin investors are currently holding (i.e., the market capitalization) compares to what they put in (i.e., the realized capitalization).

该指标表明比特币投资者当前持有的价值（即市值）与他们投入的价值（即已实现资本化）相比如何。

When the metric’s value is above 1, it means that the holders, on the whole, are sitting on a value greater than their initial investment, which is to say they’re in net profit. On the other hand, an MVRV below this threshold implies that the market is underwater overall at that point in time.

当该指标的值高于 1 时，意味着持有者总体上所持有的价值大于其初始投资，也就是说，他们获得了净利润。另一方面，MVRV 低于此阈值意味着市场当时总体处于水下状态。

There are several pricing models based on this metric, but in the context of the present discussion, the “MVR2 extreme deviation pricing bands” are relevant.

有多种基于此指标的定价模型，但在当前讨论的背景下，“MVR2 极端偏差定价范围”是相关的。

This model's standard deviations around the MVRV mean signify the relevant price levels. Shown below is a chart presenting how these levels currently appear for Bitcoin.

该模型围绕 MVRV 均值的标准差表示相关的价格水平。下图展示了比特币当前的这些水平。

As the graph shows, Bitcoin is currently trading above the +0.5σ pricing band. At the price level corresponding to this 0.5σ level ($66,800 at the moment), BTC’s MVRV value becomes 0.5 standard deviations above its mean value.

如图所示，比特币目前的交易价格高于 +0.5σ 定价区间。在与这个 0.5σ 水平相对应的价格水平（目前为 66,800 美元），BTC 的 MVRV 值比其平均值高出 0.5 个标准差。

According to this model, the next level of interest is the +1σ, where the MVRV is 1 standard deviation above its mean. The price level at which the MVRV ratio would satisfy this condition is $79,600.

根据此模型，下一个感兴趣的水平是 +1σ，其中 MVRV 比其平均值高 1 个标准差。 MVRV 比率满足此条件的价格水平为 79,600 美元。

Historically, tops in the cryptocurrency have tended to form when the price breaches past this MVRV pricing band level. From the chart, it's evident that BTC crossed this level earlier this year on its way to setting its new all-time high, which still marks the peak of the rally so far.

从历史上看，当价格突破 MVRV 定价区间水平时，加密货币往往会形成顶部。从图表中可以明显看出，比特币在今年早些时候就突破了这一水平，并创下了历史新高，这仍然标志着迄今为止反弹的顶峰。

Ali suggests that if Bitcoin can continue to hold above $66,800 (the +0.5σ pricing band level), the asset will “likely rise to test the 1.0σ pricing band at $79,600.” A potential rally to this level would entail an increase of over 14% for BTC from its current price.

Ali 表示，如果比特币能够继续保持在 66,800 美元（+0.5σ 定价区间水平）之上，该资产“可能会上涨以测试 79,600 美元的 1.0σ 定价区间”。如果比特币价格上涨至这一水平，则其价格将比当前价格上涨 14% 以上。

Why do tops tend to be more probable to happen above the +1σ MVRV pricing band? The explanation could be that when the MVRV reaches values this high, the investors are holding substantial profits, making them more likely to participate in a mass selloff.

为什么顶部更有可能出现在 +1σ MVRV 定价区间之上？解释可能是，当 MVRV 达到如此高的价值时，投资者持有可观利润，使他们更有可能参与大规模抛售。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin underwent a retest of the +0.5σ pricing band earlier, but the level has managed to hold so far, with the coin having rebounded to $69,500 since then.

比特币早些时候重新测试了 +0.5σ 定价区间，但迄今为止一直保持在这一水平，此后比特币已反弹至 69,500 美元。