比特幣（BTC）價格可能會飆升至150,000美元，因為真正的集會可能只有開始

比特幣市場繼續使懷疑論者感到驚訝。在超過心理$ 100,000大關之後，其目前的價格約為103,519.95美元

Despite a slight setback of -0.71% in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin continues its march upwards, currently trading at around $103,519.95 after breaching the $100,000 psychological barrier.

儘管在過去的24小時內輕微的挫折為-0.71％，但比特幣仍在向上行進，目前違反了100,000美元的心理障礙後，目前的交易價格約為103,519.95美元。

Several experts believe that the real rally may only be getting started, and one of the most optimistic outlooks comes from James Check, a well-known on-chain analyst.

幾位專家認為，真正的集會可能只有開始，最樂觀的前景之一來自著名的鏈分析師詹姆斯·奇克（James Check）。

According to Check, who is followed by over 1.2 million across social media, Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in the coming months.

根據Check的說法，隨後在社交媒體上超過120萬，在接下來的幾個月中，比特幣可能達到15萬美元。

His perspective is not based on speculation, but on a macroeconomic analysis that suggests a major shift in global financial flows is now favoring Bitcoin over traditional assets.

他的觀點不是基於猜測，而是基於宏觀經濟分析，表明全球金融流動的重大轉變現在比比特幣相對於傳統資產有利。

Monetary Regime Shift And Bitcoin’s Role As A Safe Haven

貨幣政權轉移和比特幣作為避風港的角色

Check notes that throughout history, periods of time have seen different assets take on the role of primary monetary assets. In the past, this role belonged to gold, which typically led the way in cycles of sound-money dominance.

檢查說明，在整個歷史上，各個時期都看到不同的資產扮演了主要貨幣資產的作用。過去，這個角色屬於黃金，通常導致聲音統治的周期。

However, Check believes that we are now entering a new era where Bitcoin is also competing for this role. With a market capitalization of $2.05 trillion, Bitcoin has already overtaken silver and is now among the world’s top five monetary assets.

但是，Check認為我們現在正在進入一個新時代，比特幣也正在爭奪這一角色。比特幣的市值為2.05萬億美元，已經超過了白銀，現在已成為全球前五名的貨幣資產之一。

This change has also seen institutional investors become more interested in cryptocurrencies. They are now engaging with Bitcoin derivatives like futures and options in a way that is not diluting interest but enabling the inflow of serious capital by providing the infrastructure needed for large-scale participation.

這種變化還看到機構投資者對加密貨幣的感興趣。他們現在正在與比特幣衍生產品（如期貨和期權）互動，這種方式並非稀釋興趣，而是通過提供大規模參與所需的基礎設施來促進嚴重資本的流入。

Strong Consolidation And Statistical Outlook For The Rally

集會的強烈合併和統計前景

From a technical standpoint, Check highlights the MVRV ratio, which compares market value with realized value. According to Check’s analysis, the statistical ceiling for this current cycle lies around $166,000.

從技術角度來看，檢查突出顯示了MVRV比率，該比率將市場價值與實現價值進行比較。根據檢查的分析，此當前週期的統計上限約為166,000美元。

Reaching $150,000 would not be an exaggeration, but a natural stage in investor behavior as unrealized profits begin to be locked in. This is in contrast to previous cycles, where corrections were characterized by steeper crashes.

達到15萬美元並不是誇張的，但是隨著未實現的利潤開始被鎖定在投資者行為的自然階段。這與以前的周期相反，這與以前的周期相反，在先前的周期中，校正的特徵是陡峭的崩潰。

Instead, the market experiences what Check calls “time pain”—extended periods of sideways movement that put emotional pressure on the average investor. This indicates a deeper maturity in the market.

取而代之的是，市場經歷了檢查所謂的“時間痛” - 橫向運動的擴展時期，這給普通投資者帶來了情感壓力。這表明市場上的成熟度更高。

This lack of volatility also suggests that Bitcoin is no longer as dependent on halving events to drive price action and is now reacting more to broader macro variables like inflation, the dollar cycle, and asset rotation.

缺乏波動性還表明，比特幣不再取決於將事件減少到推動價格行動的減半，現在對更廣泛的宏觀變量做出反應，例如通貨膨脹，美元週期和資產旋轉。