比特币（BTC）价格可能会飙升至150,000美元，因为真正的集会可能只有开始

比特币市场继续使怀疑论者感到惊讶。在超过心理$ 100,000大关之后，其目前的价格约为103,519.95美元

Despite a slight setback of -0.71% in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin continues its march upwards, currently trading at around $103,519.95 after breaching the $100,000 psychological barrier.

尽管在过去的24小时内轻微的挫折为-0.71％，但比特币仍在向上行进，目前违反了100,000美元的心理障碍后，目前的交易价格约为103,519.95美元。

Several experts believe that the real rally may only be getting started, and one of the most optimistic outlooks comes from James Check, a well-known on-chain analyst.

几位专家认为，真正的集会可能只有开始，最乐观的前景之一来自著名的链分析师詹姆斯·奇克（James Check）。

According to Check, who is followed by over 1.2 million across social media, Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in the coming months.

根据Check的说法，随后在社交媒体上超过120万，在接下来的几个月中，比特币可能达到15万美元。

His perspective is not based on speculation, but on a macroeconomic analysis that suggests a major shift in global financial flows is now favoring Bitcoin over traditional assets.

他的观点不是基于猜测，而是基于宏观经济分析，表明全球金融流动的重大转变现在比比特币相对于传统资产有利。

Monetary Regime Shift And Bitcoin’s Role As A Safe Haven

货币政权转移和比特币作为避风港的角色

Check notes that throughout history, periods of time have seen different assets take on the role of primary monetary assets. In the past, this role belonged to gold, which typically led the way in cycles of sound-money dominance.

检查说明，在整个历史上，各个时期都看到不同的资产扮演了主要货币资产的作用。过去，这个角色属于黄金，通常导致声音统治的周期。

However, Check believes that we are now entering a new era where Bitcoin is also competing for this role. With a market capitalization of $2.05 trillion, Bitcoin has already overtaken silver and is now among the world’s top five monetary assets.

但是，Check认为我们现在正在进入一个新时代，比特币也正在争夺这一角色。比特币的市值为2.05万亿美元，已经超过了白银，现在已成为全球前五名的货币资产之一。

This change has also seen institutional investors become more interested in cryptocurrencies. They are now engaging with Bitcoin derivatives like futures and options in a way that is not diluting interest but enabling the inflow of serious capital by providing the infrastructure needed for large-scale participation.

这种变化还看到机构投资者对加密货币的感兴趣。他们现在正在与比特币衍生产品（如期货和期权）互动，这种方式并非稀释兴趣，而是通过提供大规模参与所需的基础设施来促进严重资本的流入。

Strong Consolidation And Statistical Outlook For The Rally

集会的强烈合并和统计前景

From a technical standpoint, Check highlights the MVRV ratio, which compares market value with realized value. According to Check’s analysis, the statistical ceiling for this current cycle lies around $166,000.

从技术角度来看，检查突出显示了MVRV比率，该比率将市场价值与实现价值进行比较。根据检查的分析，此当前周期的统计上限约为166,000美元。

Reaching $150,000 would not be an exaggeration, but a natural stage in investor behavior as unrealized profits begin to be locked in. This is in contrast to previous cycles, where corrections were characterized by steeper crashes.

达到15万美元并不是夸张的，但是随着未实现的利润开始被锁定在投资者行为的自然阶段。这与以前的周期相反，这与以前的周期相反，在先前的周期中，校正的特征是陡峭的崩溃。

Instead, the market experiences what Check calls “time pain”—extended periods of sideways movement that put emotional pressure on the average investor. This indicates a deeper maturity in the market.

取而代之的是，市场经历了检查所谓的“时间痛” - 横向运动的扩展时期，这给普通投资者带来了情感压力。这表明市场上的成熟度更高。

This lack of volatility also suggests that Bitcoin is no longer as dependent on halving events to drive price action and is now reacting more to broader macro variables like inflation, the dollar cycle, and asset rotation.

缺乏波动性还表明，比特币不再取决于将事件减少到推动价格行动的减半，现在对更广泛的宏观变量做出反应，例如通货膨胀，美元周期和资产旋转。