比特幣（BTC）的價格似乎搖搖欲墜，但加密分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）說，前景仍然是看好的

比特幣最近的市場行動似乎搖搖欲墜，但是根據加密分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的說法，這都是大局的一部分，而且前景仍然是看好的。

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there’s no need to panic just yet about Bitcoin’s recent market action, as it’s all part of the bigger picture and the outlook is still bullish.

加密分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）表示，目前尚不需要對比特幣最近的市場行動感到恐慌，因為這都是大局的一部分，而且前景仍然是看好的。

As the second quarter of 2025 kicks off, Bitcoin has seen a slight cool-down after its impressive earlier this year. With global tensions, interest rate concerns, and trade decisions still on investors’ minds, the flagship cryptocurrency is now moving in a tight range between $83,000 and $85,000.

隨著2025年第二季度的開始，比特幣在今年早些時候令人印象深刻的情況下略有涼爽。由於全球緊張局勢，利率問題和貿易決策仍在投資者的腦海中，旗艦加密貨幣現在正處於83,000美元至85,000美元之間的緊張範圍內。

However, despite this consolidation phase, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says there’s no need to panic just yet. As he closely tracks Bitcoin cycles, he says the most important level to watch is the 2024 high.

然而，儘管這個合併階段，加密分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）表示，目前尚無恐慌。當他密切追踪比特幣週期時，他說最重要的水平是2024年。

As long as Bitcoin stays above that point—even with brief dips or “wicks” below—he believes the current uptrend remains intact. A drop to the low $60,000s could still trigger a strong bounce, possibly pushing the price even higher than where it is now.

只要比特幣保持在這一點之上（即使在下面的短暫下降或“燈芯”）上方，他相信當前的上升趨勢仍然完好無損。下降到60,000美元的低點仍然可能引發強烈的反彈，可能會使價格甚至比現在的價格高。

“If we do get a break of the 2024 highs, then I think that would be a bit problematic. But if we don’t break the 2024 highs, then I think we could even drop to the low $60,000s and still get a very strong bounce off of that area,” Cowen said in a recent video.

Cowen在最近的一段視頻中說：“如果我們確實會突破2024高點，那麼我認為這會有點問題。但是，如果我們不打破2024年的高點，那麼我認為我們甚至可以跌至60,000美元的低價，並且仍然在該地區越來越強烈。”

He also noted that Bitcoin’s growth in this cycle is following a familiar pattern of diminishing returns compared to previous cycles. But that doesn’t necessarily mean gains are over yet.

他還指出，與以前的周期相比，比特幣在這個週期中的增長遵循熟悉的回報率降低模式。但這並不一定意味著收益已經結束。

In a best-case scenario, Cowen sees Bitcoin climbing to between $120,000 and $150,000, and maybe even as high as $200,000 if major events—like institutional or government buying—kick in. From there, he thinks it could continue tracking sideways in a broad range.

在最佳情況下，Cowen看到比特幣攀升至120,000至150,000美元之間，甚至可能高達200,000美元，如果重大事件（例如機構或政府購買）踢了。從那裡開始，他認為它可以繼續在廣泛的範圍內跟踪側面。

The real concern, Cowen says, would be if Bitcoin falls and fails to hold the 2024 high, setting up what’s known as a “left translated cycle.” That would indicate that the peak of this cycle has already passed. But for now, that scenario hasn’t played out.

考寧說，真正關心的是，如果比特幣跌倒並且未能保持2024年高，建立了所謂的“左翻譯週期”。這表明該週期的峰值已經過去。但是就目前而言，這種情況還沒有播放。

“If we break the 2024 highs, then I think that would be the beginning of a new cycle, and it would be a cycle that has already peaked. And if we were to do that, then I think we’d be setting up for potentially dropping to the $40,000s or even the high $30,000s from here,” Cowen said.

Cowen說：“如果我們打破2024高點，那麼我認為這將是一個新循環的開始，這將是一個已經達到頂峰的周期。

Looking back at the 2016–2017 cycle, Cowen noted that Bitcoin also briefly dipped below key highs before taking off again. This kind of short-term volatility, he said, doesn’t necessarily break long-term market structure—unless it turns into sustained downward pressure.

回顧2016 - 2017年的周期，Cowen指出，比特幣在重新起飛之前也短暫地下降到關鍵高點以下。他說，這種短期波動不一定會破壞長期的市場結構，除非它變成了持續的向下壓力。