比特幣（BTC）價格預測：這是新牛市的開始嗎？

比特幣再次處於關鍵時刻的交易，因為它以歷史最高的高度調情（ATH），但是這次，通常的欣快感失踪了。

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a critical juncture once again as it flirts with an all-time high (ATH), but this time, the usual euphoria is missing.

比特幣（BTC）再次測試一個關鍵的關頭，因為它以歷史最高的高度調情（ATH），但是這次，通常的欣快感缺失了。

The asset has surged more than 40% since early April, pushing toward the $109K mark, yet this rally is unfolding with an unusual quiet intensity. Rather than the typical wave of hype and FOMO that tends to accompany such rallies, investors appear more reserved, suggesting underlying uncertainty and fear of a potential pullback.

自4月初以來，該資產飆升了40％以上，推向了$ 109K的成績，但這種集會以異常安靜的強度展開。投資者似乎更加保留，而不是傾向於伴隨著這樣的集會的典型炒作和FOMO浪潮，這表明了潛在的不確定性和對潛在回調的恐懼。

However, despite the surface tone, on-chain signals point to something more constructive. According to recent insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's current rebound is showing characteristics of a healthier bull market. This rebound, unlike previous ones, is not accompanied by an overheated funding rate.

但是，儘管表面音調，但鏈信號表明了更具建設性的東西。根據CryptoQuant的最新見解，比特幣目前的反彈正在顯示出更健康的牛市的特徵。與以前的反彈不同，這種反彈並不伴隨著過熱的資金率。

More importantly, Binance's market buy volume is trending downward, a sign that price growth is not being fueled by excessive leverage or short-term speculation.

更重要的是，Binance的市場購買量正在向下趨勢，這表明價格增長並沒有因槓桿過多或短期投機而推動。

This divergence between price strength and market sentiment has analysts divided. While some expect a breakout and continuation into price discovery, others warn that a retrace may be near.

價格強度和市場情緒之間的這種差異使分析師分裂了。儘管有些人期望突破並繼續進行價格發現，但另一些人警告說，回顧可能已經臨近。

One thing is clear: Bitcoin is coiling for a major move—and whether that means new highs or a shakeout, the next few days will be decisive.

一件事很清楚：比特幣正在繞著重大舉措盤繞 - 無論是新的高點還是搖晃，接下來的幾天都將是決定性的。

Bitcoin Testing Resistance As Signs Point To A Healthier Rally

比特幣測試阻力指向更健康的集會

Bitcoin is currently battling key supply levels after a weekend that saw the price surge to $107,000 before quickly retracing over 4% into lower demand zones. This sharp move triggered caution across the market, with many analysts now calling for a potential pullback.

在一個週末之後，比特幣目前正在與密鑰供應水平作鬥爭，該週末的價格上漲至107,000美元，然後迅速將超過4％的需求帶入較低的需求區域。這種急劇的舉動引發了整個市場的謹慎，許多分析師現在呼籲潛在的回調。

With Bitcoin hovering near the psychologically important $100K level, bulls must defend this zone to maintain the current bullish structure and avoid further downside.

隨著比特幣徘徊在心理上重要的$ 10萬美元水平，公牛必須捍衛這一區域，以維持當前的看漲結構並避免進一步的缺點。

Resistance remains strong between $105K and the previous ATH near $109K, where liquidity clusters could either absorb buying pressure or trigger an explosive breakout.

阻力在10.5萬美元之間保持強勁，而先前的ATH在109K $ 109K附近，流動性群集可能會吸收購買壓力或觸發爆炸性突破。

However, according to new insights from CryptoQuant, the nature of this rally is notably different from prior cycles.

然而，根據加密素養的新見解，該集會的性質與先前的周期截然不同。

In previous bull runs, each new ATH was followed by overheated funding rates and aggressive market buy volume, both indicators of short-term speculative excess. These surges were consistently followed by corrections that reset the market.

在先前的公牛奔跑中，每個新的ATH之後都有過熱的資金率和積極的市場購買量，這是短期投機性過剩的指標。這些潮流始終是重置市場的更正。

This time, however, funding rates remain moderate, and Binance's buy volume is trending downward. While this may appear as weak momentum on the surface, it could actually be a sign of a more stable and sustainable rally.

但是，這次的資金率仍然溫和，二元的買入量正在下降。儘管這可能是表面上的弱動量，但實際上可能是更穩定和可持續的集會的標誌。

Unlike past overheated phases, the market now appears lighter and more cautious. Despite short-term volatility, buy volume has shown a steady uptrend since 2023, indicating continued interest from long-term participants. This underlying strength suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow and may be gearing up for a more durable move into price discovery, so long as $100K holds.

與過去過熱的階段不同，市場現在看起來更輕，更謹慎。儘管短期波動性，但自2023年以來，購買量仍顯示出穩定的上升趨勢，表明長期參與者的持續興趣。這種潛在的強度表明，比特幣仍然有生長的空間，並且可能會為價格發現的更耐用，只要售價為10萬美元。

Price Action Showing Volatility Amid Breakout Attempts

在突破嘗試中顯示波動性的價格動作

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000, consolidating following a volatile push that saw the apex cryptocurrency briefly tap $107,000. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is forming a tight range between $103,600 and $105,500, with visible support resting at $103,600 — a level that has acted as a springboard for multiple bounces in recent days.

比特幣目前的交易約為105,000美元，在動盪不安的推動力之後鞏固了Apex Cryptocurrency短暫點擊107,000美元。在4小時的圖表上，BTC的範圍在$ 103,600到$ 105,500之間，可見的支撐支撐為103,600美元，這一水平是最近幾天的多次彈力板的跳板。

The price structure suggests a potential breakout attempt, but failure to hold current levels could lead to a retest of $100,000. The 200-period simple and exponential moving averages (SMA and EMA) continue sloping upward, reflecting the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Notably, BTC remains well above both indicators — the SMA near $96,600 and the EMA around $97,600 — showing that the macro trend remains intact for now.

價格結構表明潛在的突破嘗試，但未能保持當前水平可能會導致100,000美元的重新測試。 200個週期的簡單和指數的移動平均值（SMA和EMA）繼續向上傾斜，反映了正在進行的上升趨勢的強度。值得注意的是，BTC仍然遠高於兩個指標 - SMA接近96,600美元，EMA約為97,600美元 - 表明宏觀趨勢目前保持不變。

Volume has declined slightly during the consolidation, hinting that traders are waiting for confirmation before positioning. A breakout above the local highs near $107,000 could open the door to price discovery and a run toward the all-time high near $109,000. However, if BTC loses $103,600 support, bearish momentum could quickly build.

合併期間的數量略有下降，暗示交易者在定位之前正在等待確認。當地高點以上的突破近107,000美元，可能打開了價格發現的大門，並朝著有史以來的高點接近$ 109,000。但是，如果BTC損失了103,600美元的支持，看跌勢頭可能會迅速建立。