比特币（BTC）价格预测：这是新牛市的开始吗？

比特币再次处于关键时刻的交易，因为它以历史最高的高度调情（ATH），但是这次，通常的欣快感失踪了。

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a critical juncture once again as it flirts with an all-time high (ATH), but this time, the usual euphoria is missing.

比特币（BTC）再次测试一个关键的关头，因为它以历史最高的高度调情（ATH），但是这次，通常的欣快感缺失了。

The asset has surged more than 40% since early April, pushing toward the $109K mark, yet this rally is unfolding with an unusual quiet intensity. Rather than the typical wave of hype and FOMO that tends to accompany such rallies, investors appear more reserved, suggesting underlying uncertainty and fear of a potential pullback.

自4月初以来，该资产飙升了40％以上，推向了$ 109K的成绩，但这种集会以异常安静的强度展开。投资者似乎更加保留，而不是倾向于伴随着这样的集会的典型炒作和FOMO浪潮，这表明了潜在的不确定性和对潜在回调的恐惧。

However, despite the surface tone, on-chain signals point to something more constructive. According to recent insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's current rebound is showing characteristics of a healthier bull market. This rebound, unlike previous ones, is not accompanied by an overheated funding rate.

但是，尽管表面音调，但链信号表明了更具建设性的东西。根据CryptoQuant的最新见解，比特币目前的反弹正在显示出更健康的牛市的特征。与以前的反弹不同，这种反弹并不伴随着过热的资金率。

More importantly, Binance's market buy volume is trending downward, a sign that price growth is not being fueled by excessive leverage or short-term speculation.

更重要的是，Binance的市场购买量正在向下趋势，这表明价格增长并没有因杠杆过多或短期投机而推动。

This divergence between price strength and market sentiment has analysts divided. While some expect a breakout and continuation into price discovery, others warn that a retrace may be near.

价格强度和市场情绪之间的这种差异使分析师分裂了。尽管有些人期望突破并继续进行价格发现，但另一些人警告说，回顾可能已经临近。

One thing is clear: Bitcoin is coiling for a major move—and whether that means new highs or a shakeout, the next few days will be decisive.

一件事很清楚：比特币正在绕着重大举措盘绕 - 无论是新的高点还是摇晃，接下来的几天都将是决定性的。

Bitcoin Testing Resistance As Signs Point To A Healthier Rally

比特币测试阻力指向更健康的集会

Bitcoin is currently battling key supply levels after a weekend that saw the price surge to $107,000 before quickly retracing over 4% into lower demand zones. This sharp move triggered caution across the market, with many analysts now calling for a potential pullback.

在一个周末之后，比特币目前正在与密钥供应水平作斗争，该周末的价格上涨至107,000美元，然后迅速将超过4％的需求带入较低的需求区域。这种急剧的举动引发了整个市场的谨慎，许多分析师现在呼吁潜在的回调。

With Bitcoin hovering near the psychologically important $100K level, bulls must defend this zone to maintain the current bullish structure and avoid further downside.

随着比特币徘徊在心理上重要的$ 10万美元水平，公牛必须捍卫这一区域，以维持当前的看涨结构并避免进一步的缺点。

Resistance remains strong between $105K and the previous ATH near $109K, where liquidity clusters could either absorb buying pressure or trigger an explosive breakout.

阻力在10.5万美元之间保持强劲，而先前的ATH在109K $ 109K附近，流动性群集可能会吸收购买压力或触发爆炸性突破。

However, according to new insights from CryptoQuant, the nature of this rally is notably different from prior cycles.

然而，根据加密素养的新见解，该集会的性质与先前的周期截然不同。

In previous bull runs, each new ATH was followed by overheated funding rates and aggressive market buy volume, both indicators of short-term speculative excess. These surges were consistently followed by corrections that reset the market.

在先前的公牛奔跑中，每个新的ATH之后都有过热的资金率和积极的市场购买量，这是短期投机性过剩的指标。这些潮流始终是重置市场的更正。

This time, however, funding rates remain moderate, and Binance's buy volume is trending downward. While this may appear as weak momentum on the surface, it could actually be a sign of a more stable and sustainable rally.

但是，这次的资金率仍然温和，二元的买入量正在下降。尽管这可能是表面上的弱动量，但实际上可能是更稳定和可持续的集会的标志。

Unlike past overheated phases, the market now appears lighter and more cautious. Despite short-term volatility, buy volume has shown a steady uptrend since 2023, indicating continued interest from long-term participants. This underlying strength suggests that Bitcoin still has room to grow and may be gearing up for a more durable move into price discovery, so long as $100K holds.

与过去过热的阶段不同，市场现在看起来更轻，更谨慎。尽管短期波动性，但自2023年以来，购买量仍显示出稳定的上升趋势，表明长期参与者的持续兴趣。这种潜在的强度表明，比特币仍然有生长的空间，并且可能会为价格发现的更耐用，只要售价为10万美元。

Price Action Showing Volatility Amid Breakout Attempts

在突破尝试中显示波动性的价格动作

Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000, consolidating following a volatile push that saw the apex cryptocurrency briefly tap $107,000. On the 4-hour chart, BTC is forming a tight range between $103,600 and $105,500, with visible support resting at $103,600 — a level that has acted as a springboard for multiple bounces in recent days.

比特币目前的交易约为105,000美元，在动荡不安的推动力之后巩固了Apex Cryptocurrency短暂点击107,000美元。在4小时的图表上，BTC的范围在$ 103,600到$ 105,500之间，可见的支撑支撑为103,600美元，这一水平是最近几天的多次弹力板的跳板。

The price structure suggests a potential breakout attempt, but failure to hold current levels could lead to a retest of $100,000. The 200-period simple and exponential moving averages (SMA and EMA) continue sloping upward, reflecting the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Notably, BTC remains well above both indicators — the SMA near $96,600 and the EMA around $97,600 — showing that the macro trend remains intact for now.

价格结构表明潜在的突破尝试，但未能保持当前水平可能会导致100,000美元的重新测试。 200个周期的简单和指数的移动平均值（SMA和EMA）继续向上倾斜，反映了正在进行的上升趋势的强度。值得注意的是，BTC仍然远高于两个指标 - SMA接近96,600美元，EMA约为97,600美元 - 表明宏观趋势目前保持不变。

Volume has declined slightly during the consolidation, hinting that traders are waiting for confirmation before positioning. A breakout above the local highs near $107,000 could open the door to price discovery and a run toward the all-time high near $109,000. However, if BTC loses $103,600 support, bearish momentum could quickly build.

合并期间的数量略有下降，暗示交易者在定位之前正在等待确认。当地高点以上的突破近107,000美元，可能打开了价格发现的大门，并朝着有史以来的高点接近$ 109,000。但是，如果BTC损失了103,600美元的支持，看跌势头可能会迅速建立。