比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：短期、中期和長期預測

在此期間，關於比特幣（BTC）價格的許多預測正在流傳。然而，有必要區分短期、中期和長期預測。

Short, medium, and long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) are discussed in this article.

本文討論了比特幣 (BTC) 的短期、中期和長期價格預測。

In the short term, a seesaw has been observed, beginning with a drop below $61,000 on July 2. This decline brought the price down to $54,000 by Friday. Some suspect further decreases, possibly reaching $51,000 or lower, due to selling pressure from German authorities or Mt. Gox creditors. Others suggest a lateralization at lower levels, starting from the $54,000 reached on Friday.

短期內，我們觀察到了蹺蹺板的走勢，從 7 月 2 日跌破 61,000 美元開始。有些人懷疑，由於德國當局或 Mt. Gox 債權人的拋售壓力，價格會進一步下跌，可能達到 51,000 美元或更低。其他人則建議從週五達到的 54,000 美元開始，在較低水平進行橫向化。

This scenario follows a period of lateralization between $57,000 and $72,000, which began after a rise from below $57,000 to over $70,000 in late February to early March. This lateralization ended with a peak at new all-time highs above $73,000. Medium-term forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may regain strength after this period of suffering. This hypothesis is based on the observation that major bull runs in Bitcoin's price have typically begun at the end of the halving year or the start of the following year.

這種情況發生在 57,000 美元至 72,000 美元之間的橫向化時期之後，該時期開始於 2 月底至 3 月初從 57,000 美元以下升至 70,000 美元以上。這種橫向化最終達到了 73,000 美元以上的歷史新高。中期預測表明，比特幣可能會在經歷這段痛苦時期後重新走強。這個假設是基於這樣的觀察：比特幣價格的主要牛市通常開始於減半年末或隔年年初。

After the fourth halving in April, several events could contribute to a bull run in autumn. These include the first Fed rate cut, expected between September and November, which may increase liquidity. Additionally, the US presidential elections in early November could lead to a weaker dollar, benefiting Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin's annual highs during bullish years have occurred in autumn, with the great bull run of 2021 starting in October, just before the US presidential elections.

在四月的第四次減半之後，一些事件可能會促成秋季的牛市。其中包括聯準會預計在 9 月至 11 月期間首次降息，這可能會增加流動性。此外，11 月初的美國總統大選可能導緻美元走軟，進而有利於比特幣。從歷史上看，比特幣在牛市期間的年度高點發生在秋季，2021 年的牛市始於 10 月，即美國總統大選之前。

Long-term forecasts are generally positive. If the bull run restarts in the fall, many hypothesize that BTC's price could exceed $100,000 or even $120,000 over the next year, with some predicting it to cross $150,000. It's worth noting that all three major bull runs in the past ($2013, '17, '21) were followed by a strong bear-market. In the very long term, some speculate even higher figures, up to a million dollars. However, it is challenging to predict what will happen after the next bull and bear runs.

長期預測總體上是積極的。如果多頭市場在秋季重新開始，許多人猜測 BTC 的價格可能會在明年超過 10 萬美元甚至 12 萬美元，有些人預測它會突破 15 萬美元。值得注意的是，過去所有三個主要的牛市（2013 年、17 年、21 年）都伴隨著強勁的熊市。從長遠來看，有些人推測這個數字甚至更高，可達一百萬美元。然而，預測下一次牛市和熊市之後會發生什麼是具有挑戰性的。

There aren't many pessimistic forecasts, and those that exist are mainly concentrated in the short term. Furthermore, they tend not to be very pessimistic, so much so that there are very few that claim that the price of BTC could return to where the last bull run started, namely at the 27,000$ mark.

悲觀的預測不多，存在的也主要集中在短期。此外，他們往往不太悲觀，以至於很少有人聲稱 BTC 的價格可能會回到上次牛市開始的位置，即 27,000 美元大關。

It is also interesting to note how during the last sessions the price often fell when the American markets were closed, and the Asian ones were open, while it rose again when the American markets reopened, with the Asian markets closed.

同樣有趣的是，在過去的幾個交易日中，當美國市場休市、亞洲市場開盤時，價格往往會下跌，而當美國市場重新開市、亞洲市場休市時，價格會再次上漲。

What is certain is that the level of interest regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at this moment is at its lowest since 2022. This low interest means that the buying pressure is low (at times very low), so even a slight increase in selling pressure is enough to bring the price down.

可以肯定的是，目前對比特幣和加密貨幣的興趣水平處於 2022 年以來的最低水平。降低價格。

On the other hand, however, the BTC present on the exchanges continue to be few, and this effectively prevents the selling pressure from skyrocketing, at least in the short term.

然而，另一方面，交易所中的 BTC 仍然很少，這有效地阻止了拋售壓力的飆升，至少在短期內是如此。