比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：短期、中期和长期预测

在此期间，关于比特币（BTC）价格的许多预测正在流传。然而，有必要区分短期、中期和长期预测。

Short, medium, and long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) are discussed in this article.

本文讨论了比特币 (BTC) 的短期、中期和长期价格预测。

In the short term, a seesaw has been observed, beginning with a drop below $61,000 on July 2. This decline brought the price down to $54,000 by Friday. Some suspect further decreases, possibly reaching $51,000 or lower, due to selling pressure from German authorities or Mt. Gox creditors. Others suggest a lateralization at lower levels, starting from the $54,000 reached on Friday.

短期内，我们观察到了跷跷板的走势，从 7 月 2 日跌破 61,000 美元开始。这种下跌使价格到周五跌至 54,000 美元。一些人怀疑，由于德国当局或 Mt. Gox 债权人的抛售压力，价格会进一步下跌，可能达到 51,000 美元或更低。其他人建议从周五达到的 54,000 美元开始，在较低水平进行横向化。

This scenario follows a period of lateralization between $57,000 and $72,000, which began after a rise from below $57,000 to over $70,000 in late February to early March. This lateralization ended with a peak at new all-time highs above $73,000. Medium-term forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may regain strength after this period of suffering. This hypothesis is based on the observation that major bull runs in Bitcoin's price have typically begun at the end of the halving year or the start of the following year.

这种情况发生在 57,000 美元至 72,000 美元之间的横向化时期之后，该时期开始于 2 月底至 3 月初从 57,000 美元以下升至 70,000 美元以上。这种横向化最终达到了 73,000 美元以上的历史新高。中期预测表明，比特币可能会在经历这段痛苦时期后重新走强。这一假设基于这样的观察：比特币价格的主要牛市通常开始于减半年末或次年年初。

After the fourth halving in April, several events could contribute to a bull run in autumn. These include the first Fed rate cut, expected between September and November, which may increase liquidity. Additionally, the US presidential elections in early November could lead to a weaker dollar, benefiting Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin's annual highs during bullish years have occurred in autumn, with the great bull run of 2021 starting in October, just before the US presidential elections.

在四月份的第四次减半之后，一些事件可能会促成秋季的牛市。其中包括美联储预计在 9 月至 11 月期间首次降息，这可能会增加流动性。此外，11 月初的美国总统选举可能导致美元走软，从而有利于比特币。从历史上看，比特币在牛市期间的年度高点发生在秋季，2021 年的大牛市始于 10 月，即美国总统大选之前。

Long-term forecasts are generally positive. If the bull run restarts in the fall, many hypothesize that BTC's price could exceed $100,000 or even $120,000 over the next year, with some predicting it to cross $150,000. It's worth noting that all three major bull runs in the past ($2013, '17, '21) were followed by a strong bear-market. In the very long term, some speculate even higher figures, up to a million dollars. However, it is challenging to predict what will happen after the next bull and bear runs.

长期预测总体上是积极的。如果牛市在秋季重新开始，许多人猜测 BTC 的价格可能会在明年超过 10 万美元甚至 12 万美元，有些人预测它会突破 15 万美元。值得注意的是，过去的所有三次主要牛市（2013 年、17 年、21 年）都伴随着强劲的熊市。从长远来看，一些人推测这个数字甚至更高，可达一百万美元。然而，预测下一次牛市和熊市之后会发生什么是具有挑战性的。

There aren't many pessimistic forecasts, and those that exist are mainly concentrated in the short term. Furthermore, they tend not to be very pessimistic, so much so that there are very few that claim that the price of BTC could return to where the last bull run started, namely at the 27,000$ mark.

悲观的预测并不多，存在的也主要集中在短期。此外，他们往往不太悲观，以至于很少有人声称 BTC 的价格可能会回到上次牛市开始的位置，即 27,000 美元大关。

It is also interesting to note how during the last sessions the price often fell when the American markets were closed, and the Asian ones were open, while it rose again when the American markets reopened, with the Asian markets closed.

同样有趣的是，在过去的几个交易日中，当美国市场休市、亚洲市场开盘时，价格往往会下跌，而当美国市场重新开市、亚洲市场休市时，价格会再次上涨。

What is certain is that the level of interest regarding Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at this moment is at its lowest since 2022. This low interest means that the buying pressure is low (at times very low), so even a slight increase in selling pressure is enough to bring the price down.

可以肯定的是，目前对比特币和加密货币的兴趣水平处于 2022 年以来的最低水平。这种低兴趣意味着购买压力较低（有时非常低），因此即使抛售压力略有增加也足够了来降低价格。

On the other hand, however, the BTC present on the exchanges continue to be few, and this effectively prevents the selling pressure from skyrocketing, at least in the short term.

然而，另一方面，交易所中的 BTC 仍然很少，这有效地阻止了抛售压力的飙升，至少在短期内是这样。