比特幣 (BTC) 價格預測：多頭會保持壓力以避免重蹈 2021 年的覆轍嗎？

隨著價格接近歷史高點，比特幣 [BTC] 正在獲得看漲勢頭。過去兩天回調了 4%，重新測試了 6.9 萬美元的支撐區域。

Bitcoin [BTC] price action was observed to be approaching the all-time high once again. After a 4% pullback over the past two days, BTC price action retested the $69k support zone. However, technical indicators remained bullish.

據觀察，比特幣 [BTC] 的價格走勢再次接近歷史高點。在過去兩天回檔 4% 後，BTC 價格走勢重新測試 6.9 萬美元的支撐區域。不過，技術指標依然看漲。

Back in April and the first half of May, while BTC price action remained stagnant, accumulation continued at a rapid pace.

早在 4 月和 5 月上半月，雖然 BTC 價格走勢仍停滯不前，但增持仍在快速進行中。

Highlighting the matter, a recent report by AMBCrypto noted that BTC might be preparing for a 300-day bull run. Moreover, the available evidence further reinforced the bullish narrative.

AMBCrypto 最近的一份報告強調了這一點，指出 BTC 可能正在為 300 天的牛市做準備。此外，現有證據也進一步強化了看漲的說法。

This momentum indicator shows bulls have to maintain the pressure or risk a slump

此動量指標顯示多頭必須保持壓力，否則會有暴跌的風險

Crypto analyst Axel Adler posted a piece of on-chain analysis on X (formerly Twitter) that highlighted the current momentum of Bitcoin and the values the gradient reached over the past 18 months.

加密貨幣分析師 Axel Adler 在 X（以前稱為 Twitter）上發布了一篇鏈上分析，強調了比特幣當前的勢頭以及過去 18 個月梯度達到的值。

The price gradient oscillator above measures how quickly the market cap grows in relation to the realized cap.

上面的價格梯度振盪器衡量市值相對於已實現市值的成長速度。

During the 2021 rally, as BTC neared its eventual top, the oscillator formed lower highs which indicated a fading bull trend.

在 2021 年的反彈期間，隨著 BTC 接近其最終頂部，振盪器形成了較低的高點，這表明牛市趨勢正在消退。

In 2024, the oscillator has formed a lower high at 2.96. Therefore, a move past 3 would be optimal for the bulls to avoid repeating the 2021 pattern, which would signal fading bullishness.

2024 年，振盪指標已形成較低高點 2.96。因此，對於多頭來說，突破 3 將是最佳選擇，以避免重複 2021 年的模式，這將標誌著看漲情緒減弱。

At the time of writing, the oscillator reading was at 1.38.

在撰寫本文時，振盪器讀數為 1.38。

“It’s only a matter of time” for Bitcoin to hit all-time highs

比特幣創下歷史新高“只是時間問題”

Analyst Willy Woo noted that as the price lacked a true higher timeframe trend, the available Bitcoin was being scooped up.

分析師 Willy Woo 指出，由於價格缺乏真正的較高時間框架趨勢，可用的比特幣正在被搶購。

This led to panic among retail holders, but the spot BTC demand was observed to be large.

這導致了散戶持有者的恐慌，但現貨比特幣需求卻很大。

According to the analyst, it’s only a matter of time before the prices climb past their all-time high against the US Dollar.

這位分析師表示，價格兌美元匯率升至歷史新高只是時間問題。

The exchange whale ratio was observed to be rising in April and May. This indicated increased whale activity, which is abnormal during a bull run. Usually, during the bullish long-term trend, whale activity quietens down.

據觀察，4 月和 5 月鯨魚交易比例上升。這表明鯨魚活動增加，這在牛市期間是不正常的。通常，在看漲的長期趨勢中，鯨魚活動會平靜下來。

It picks up once the top is in and prices begin sliding lower.

一旦見頂，價格就會回升，價格開始下滑。