比特币 (BTC) 价格预测：多头会保持压力以避免重蹈 2021 年的覆辙吗？

随着价格接近历史高点，比特币 [BTC] 正在获得看涨势头。过去两天回调了 4%，重新测试了 6.9 万美元的支撑区域。

Bitcoin [BTC] price action was observed to be approaching the all-time high once again. After a 4% pullback over the past two days, BTC price action retested the $69k support zone. However, technical indicators remained bullish.

据观察，比特币 [BTC] 的价格走势再次接近历史高点。在过去两天回调 4% 后，BTC 价格走势重新测试 6.9 万美元的支撑区域。不过，技术指标依然看涨。

Back in April and the first half of May, while BTC price action remained stagnant, accumulation continued at a rapid pace.

早在 4 月和 5 月上半月，虽然 BTC 价格走势仍停滞不前，但增持仍在快速进行。

Highlighting the matter, a recent report by AMBCrypto noted that BTC might be preparing for a 300-day bull run. Moreover, the available evidence further reinforced the bullish narrative.

AMBCrypto 最近的一份报告强调了这一点，指出 BTC 可能正在为 300 天的牛市做准备。此外，现有证据进一步强化了看涨的说法。

This momentum indicator shows bulls have to maintain the pressure or risk a slump

该动量指标显示多头必须保持压力，否则就有暴跌的风险

Crypto analyst Axel Adler posted a piece of on-chain analysis on X (formerly Twitter) that highlighted the current momentum of Bitcoin and the values the gradient reached over the past 18 months.

加密货币分析师 Axel Adler 在 X（以前称为 Twitter）上发布了一篇链上分析，强调了比特币当前的势头以及过去 18 个月梯度达到的值。

The price gradient oscillator above measures how quickly the market cap grows in relation to the realized cap.

上面的价格梯度振荡器衡量市值相对于已实现市值的增长速度。

During the 2021 rally, as BTC neared its eventual top, the oscillator formed lower highs which indicated a fading bull trend.

在 2021 年的反弹期间，随着 BTC 接近其最终顶部，振荡器形成了较低的高点，这表明牛市趋势正在消退。

In 2024, the oscillator has formed a lower high at 2.96. Therefore, a move past 3 would be optimal for the bulls to avoid repeating the 2021 pattern, which would signal fading bullishness.

2024 年，振荡指标已形成较低高点 2.96。因此，对于多头来说，突破 3 将是最佳选择，以避免重复 2021 年的模式，这将标志着看涨情绪减弱。

At the time of writing, the oscillator reading was at 1.38.

在撰写本文时，振荡器读数为 1.38。

“It’s only a matter of time” for Bitcoin to hit all-time highs

比特币创下历史新高“只是时间问题”

Analyst Willy Woo noted that as the price lacked a true higher timeframe trend, the available Bitcoin was being scooped up.

分析师 Willy Woo 指出，由于价格缺乏真正的较高时间框架趋势，可用的比特币正在被抢购。

This led to panic among retail holders, but the spot BTC demand was observed to be large.

这导致了散户持有者的恐慌，但现货比特币需求却很大。

According to the analyst, it’s only a matter of time before the prices climb past their all-time high against the US Dollar.

这位分析师表示，价格兑美元汇率升至历史新高只是时间问题。

The exchange whale ratio was observed to be rising in April and May. This indicated increased whale activity, which is abnormal during a bull run. Usually, during the bullish long-term trend, whale activity quietens down.

据观察，4 月和 5 月鲸鱼交易比例有所上升。这表明鲸鱼活动增加，这在牛市期间是不正常的。通常，在看涨的长期趋势中，鲸鱼活动会平静下来。

It picks up once the top is in and prices begin sliding lower.

一旦见顶，价格就会回升，价格开始下滑。