比特幣（BTC）的價格很快可能會達到新的歷史最高點，從而觸發了山寨幣市場的增長

比特幣（BTC）可能很快達到創紀錄的價格高點，從而觸發了更廣泛的山寨幣市場的加速增長，因為緩解美中貿易緊張局勢的緩解可能會使市場對本周到期的4月CPI的潛在放緩做出積極反應。

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday that the two countries have reached a trade agreement after two days of high-level negotiations in Geneva. Both countries are set to issue a joint statement on the Geneva trade talks later Monday.

美國財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）和貿易代表傑米森·格里爾（Jamieson Greer）週日宣布，兩國在日內瓦進行了兩天的高級談判後達成了貿易協定。兩國將在周一晚些時候就日內瓦貿易談判發表聯合聲明。

The trade deal comes after weeks of a tit-for-tat trade war that saw both countries raise import tariffs above 100%, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. As such, the positive March U.S. consumer price inflation data released last month was largely dismissed by investors and analysts as a lagging metric that didn’t accurately reflect the escalating trade tensions.

這項貿易協議是在一場賣出貿易戰爭的數週之後進行的，這兩種國家都將進口關稅提高到100％以上，並威脅要向全球經濟注入通貨膨脹。因此，上個月發布的積極的美國消費者價格通貨膨脹數據在很大程度上被投資者和分析師視為滯後的指標，該指標並未準確地反映出不斷升級的貿易緊張局勢。

The bears, however, cannot make that argument anymore, thanks to the trade agreement. A continued softening of CPI could see Fed rate cut bets increase, providing a bullish catalyst for a Bitcoin (BTC) rally to record highs above $110,000. On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI could be dismissed as backwards-looking, reflecting the April tariffs and not accounting for the de-escalation in trade tensions.

但是，由於貿易協定，熊不再提出這一論點。 CPI的持續軟化可能會使美聯儲降低賭注增加，從而為比特幣（BTC）集會提供了看漲的催化劑，以紀錄高於110,000美元的高點。另一方面，可以將比預期的CPI更熱視為倒退，這反映了四月的關稅，而不是考慮貿易張力的降低。

The CPI due Tuesday is expected to show the cost of living eased to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March's 2.4%, according to RBC. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to have stayed at 2.8% year-over-year in April, with continued moderation in rent inflation.

根據加拿大皇家銀行（RBC）的數據，預計週二到期的CPI預計將顯示4月份的生活成本從3月份的2.4％降至2.3％。排除食品和能源的核心CPI預計將在4月份保持待遇為2.8％，租金通貨膨脹率繼續進行。

According to 10x Research, consensus is that the headline CPI likely held unchanged at 2.4% in April.

根據10倍研究，共識是，頭條CPI可能在4月保持不變的2.4％。

“If this expectation holds, the market may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative tariffs headline, this week's week's inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk.

10倍研究的創始人Markus Thielen告訴Coindesk：“如果這種期望達成，市場可能會將通貨膨脹報告視為正。除了任何負面的關稅標題外，本週的通貨膨脹數據可能會提供看漲的催化劑。”

“CPI could be bullish, and may bring new all-time highs,” Thielen, known for his bold predictions on Bitcoin, added.

“ CPI可能是看漲的，並且可能帶來新的歷史最高點，”蒂倫（Thielen）以對比特幣的大膽預測而聞名。

Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands at around $104,000, just 5.1% short of hitting new highs above $109,350, CoinDesk data show. BTC has had a near V-shaped recovery from $75,000 since early April, with prices surging 10% last week due to continued inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Coindesk的數據顯示，比特幣是市場價值的領先加密貨幣，以104,000美元左右的價格易手，僅在109,350美元以上的新高點不到5.1％。自4月初以來，BTC從75,000美元的$ 75,000恢復了幾乎幾乎是V形的回收率，由於持續流入現貨交易所交易的資金（ETF），上週的價格飆升了10％。

BlackRock's (BLK) flagship ETF (IBIT) registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money, according to SoSoValue data. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while reiterating the data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts. But Chairman Jerome Powell offered dovish hints, saying "the underlying inflation picture is good," while calling the inflationary impact of tariffs short-lived.

根據Sosovalue數據，貝萊德（Black）（BLK）旗艦ETF（IBIT）連續20個交易日註冊了淨流入，積累了超過50億美元的投資者資金。上週，美聯儲將基準借貸成本保持在4.25％至4.5％的範圍內，同時重申了依賴於潛在降低的數據的立場。但是董事長杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）提供了虔誠的提示，並說“基本通貨膨脹情況是好的”，同時稱關稅的通貨膨脹影響短暫。

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, the best performance since December 2020, according to TradingView. Other major altcoins such as XRP, DOGE, ADA and SOL surged 9.7%, 56%, 19% and 20%, respectively.

根據TradingView的數據，Ether（ETH）是按市值按市場價值計算的第二大加密貨幣，上週增長了39％，至2,500美元，這是自2020年12月以來的最佳性能。 XRP，Doge，ADA和SOL等其他主要山寨幣分別飆升了9.7％，56％，19％和20％。

According to HTX Research, there are no signs of speculative frenzy yet, meaning the rally could continue.

根據HTX研究，還沒有投機性瘋狂的跡象，這意味著集會可以繼續。

Implied volatility (IV) in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%–55% range, far below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion, well below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 Trump election period, indicating that leverage is still manageable, HTX Research said.

比特幣期權中的隱含波動率（IV）在50％–55％的範圍內保持穩定，遠低於過去牛市高峰期通常看到的80％+的極端水平。 HTX Research說，CME比特幣期貨目前的開放利息目前為148億美元，遠低於2020年特朗普選舉期間觀察到的200億美元高峰，這表明槓桿仍然可以控制。

“As long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000–$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger,” HTX added.

HTX補充說：“只要收益率不回到4.8％以上並且ETF流入保持穩定，比特幣可能會在105,000美元至115,000美元的範圍內合併，同時等待下一個突破觸發器。”