比特幣 (BTC) 價格本月可能觸及 11 萬美元，但 Raoul Paul 警告將出現重大調整

川普總統就職後，美國財政部將達到36兆美元的債務上限。財政部長珍妮特耶倫表示，這將需要暫停兩個月的債務發行。

The U.S. Treasury will hit its $36 trillion debt limit after President Trump’s inauguration. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, this will necessitate a two-month debt issuance suspension. This suspension could affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and other global markets.

川普總統就職後，美國財政部將達到36兆美元的債務上限。財政部長珍妮特耶倫表示，這將需要暫停兩個月的債務發行。此次暫停可能會影響比特幣和其他全球市場的全球流動性。

On January 17, the U.S. Treasury Secretary wrote to congressional leadership reminding them of the debt ceiling. The official letter notified Congress that the extended limit on the debt ceiling, effected on January 2, will be reached between January 14 and January 23.

1月17日，美國財政部長寫信給國會領導階層，提醒他們注意債務上限。官方信函通知國會，1月2日生效的債務上限延長限制將於1月14日至1月23日之間達到。

The letter also stated that starting on January 21, the Treasury will begin to take extraordinary measures to curb the situation. This will include a two-month debt issuance suspension that will begin January 21 and last through March 14.

信中也表示，從1月21日開始，財政部將開始採取非常措施來遏止局勢。這將包括從 1 月 21 日開始並持續到 3 月 14 日的兩個月債務發行暫停。

According to crypto investor and analyst Raoul Paul, Bitcoin may experience a local top at $110,000 at the end of January before major corrections send it below $70,000 in February.

加密貨幣投資者兼分析師 Raoul Paul 表示，比特幣可能會在 1 月底達到 11 萬美元的局部頂部，然後在 2 月出現重大調整，使其跌破 7 萬美元。

There have been a lot of imitations of this chart going around with the wrong phasing. Here is the updated original from our work at Global Macro investor. You are welcome. pic.twitter.com/LcxOA3TEd5

這張圖表有很多仿製品，但都存在錯誤的階段。這是我們在全球宏觀投資者工作中的更新原文。不客氣。 pic.twitter.com/LcxOA3TEd5

This necessitated move by the Treasury to protect the full faith and credit of the United States could override market sentiments.

財政部為保護美國的充分信心和信用而採取的必要行動可能會凌駕於市場情緒之上。

Bitcoin’s Reaction Based on Market ReactionSome analysts argue that the suspension in debt issuance might not have a significant impact Bitcoin’s price.

比特幣基於市場反應的反應一些分析師認為，暫停發債可能不會對比特幣的價格產生重大影響。

Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of Redstone, says the traditional market will be tightened. However, Bitcoin’s impact will depend on institutional behavior.

Redstone 聯合創辦人兼營運長 Marcin Kazmierczak 表示，傳統市場將會收緊。然而，比特幣的影響將取決於機構行為。

In his interview with Cointelegraph, Kazmierczak says, “During previous debt ceiling standoffs, Bitcoin has shown mixed correlations with traditional market liquidity metrics. The key factors to watch will be institutional behavior and the broader market’s reaction.”

Kazmierczak 在接受 Cointelegraph 採訪時表示：「在先前的債務上限僵局中，比特幣與傳統市場流動性指標表現出複雜的相關性。需要關注的關鍵因素將是機構行為和更廣泛市場的反應。

“One of the broader market’s reaction might be risk-off environments which can potentially impact Bitcoin negatively. The outcome would depend on investor behavior, economic policy responses, and global financial sentiment,” added Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet.

「更廣泛市場的反應之一可能是避險環境，這可能會對比特幣產生負面影響。結果將取決於投資者行為、經濟政策反應和全球金融情緒。

However, according to Jamie Coutts, global liquidity would rise after the suspension is over, making way for Bitcoin to continue its uptrend.

不過，Jamie Coutts 表示，停牌結束後全球流動性將​​會上升，為比特幣持續上漲趨勢讓路。

A #Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month. Yes, there is a lag between liquidity and Bitcoin, and therefore $BTC seems overstretched vs. global M2. My liquidity model, which I flagged 3 weeks back, suggested caution, especially with leverage.… https://t.co/FFX7NjmtOe pic.twitter.com/Amw8rBE03e

過去一個月，#Bitcoin 的出價掩蓋了流動性緊縮的影響。是的，流動性和比特幣之間存在滯後，因此 BTC 相對於全球 M2 來說似乎過度緊張。我三週前標記的流動性模型建議謹慎行事，尤其是在槓桿方面。

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