比特幣（BTC）價格可能會降至100,000美元，因為多個指標表明逆轉

比特幣價格法案在5月21日飆升，在Coinbase上達到了新的111,903美元的新高點。這種價格變動觸發了6.071億美元的現貨ETF流入

Bitcoin price bill surged again on May 21, hitting a new all-time high of $111,903 on Coinbase. This price move triggered $607.1 million in spot ETF outflows, showcasing strong buying interest.

比特幣價格法案在5月21日再次飆升，在Coinbase上達到了新的111,903美元的新高點。這一價格轉變觸發了6.071億美元的現貨ETF流出，展示了強大的購買興趣。

However, multiple indicators now signal that the Bitcoin price could fall to $100,000 in the short term.

但是，現在多個指標表明，短期內比特幣價格可能會降至100,000美元。

Bitcoin Price Gains Meet Weak Volatility

比特幣價格收益符合弱波動率

The 30-day Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index sits at a 10-month low of 49.73. This divergence from the strong bitcoin price bill gains is interesting.

30天的比特幣隱含波動率指數位於49.73的10個月低點。與強大的比特幣價格賬單收益相差很有趣。

Usually, volatility tends to rise during periods of strong trends. However, this flatlining segment implies that options market participants lack conviction in the sustainability of the recent upward move.

通常，在強烈趨勢時期，波動率往往會上升。但是，這個統一的細分市場意味著，期權市場參與者在最近的向上行動的可持續性中缺乏信念。

Typically, when prices move up or down sharply, traders use options to hedge against potential losses or express extreme bullishness/bearishness through leveraged payoffs.

通常，當價格急劇上升或下降時，交易者使用期權來抵禦潛在的損失或通過槓桿回報表達極端的看漲/看跌。

These directional bets would usually be reflected in higher implied volatility. But with this metric remaining low, it suggests that traders aren’t making large-scale bullish or bearish bets.

這些定向下注通常會反映在較高的隱含波動率中。但是，由於這個指標保持較低，這表明交易者沒有進行大規模看漲或看跌賭注。

This lack of conviction could render the market more susceptible to swift changes in direction.

缺乏信念會使市場更容易受到迅速變化的方向變化。

If traders aren’t massively bullish or bearish, it may explain why bitcoin price bills are struggling to break out further despite touching new highs.

如果交易者並沒有大量看漲或看跌，這可以解釋為什麼儘管觸及了新的高點，但比特幣價格賬單仍在努力爆發。

But with traders engaging in more neutral to light directional plays, it could also explain why pullbacks are quickly met by buyers or sellers.

但是，隨著貿易商從事更中性的方向性比賽，這也可以解釋為什麼買家或賣家很快就會遇到回調。

Bitcoin price bill gains aren’t being met with optimism from options traders, who aren’t pricing in further significant movement.

比特幣價格賬單收益並沒有對期權交易者的樂觀態度感到滿意，而期權交易者沒有在進一步的重大轉移方面定價。

This divergence usually occurs at market tops or bottoms, signaling a potential short-term apex.

這種差異通常發生在市場頂部或底部，表明潛在的短期頂點。

A reversal could follow if momentum weakens further amid meager derivative interest.

如果在微不足道的衍生品興趣中，動量會進一步削弱，則可能會逆轉。

Bitcoin Price Rally Lacks Institutional Backing

比特幣價格集會缺乏機構支持

Open Interest on CME for Bitcoin price bill remains weak and below early 2025 levels, revealing weak institutional engagement.

對比特幣價格法案的CME開放興趣仍然很弱，低於2025年初的水平，顯示機構參與較弱。

Even with all-time highs, futures activity hasn’t picked up significantly. This lackluster interest from large market participants is evident.

即使有歷史新高，期貨活動也沒有大幅度地提高。大型市場參與者的這種平淡的興趣顯而易見。

Usually, during bull markets or periods of strong price momentum, institutions increase their activity.

通常，在牛市或強勁的價格勢頭期間，機構增加了其活動。

But this lack of engagement at these price levels indicates that these players aren’t massively bullish and prefer to observe further developments.

但是，在這些價格水平上缺乏參與表明，這些參與者並不是大規模看漲，而是寧願觀察進一步的發展。

The CME annualized basis, comparing futures and spot prices, remains low at around 10%. This signals a narrow premium for holding long positions. It confirms that futures traders expect limited upside in the short term.

比較期貨和現貨價格的CME年化基礎仍然很低，約為10％。這標誌著保持長位置的狹窄溢價。它證實了期貨交易者預計在短期內有限的上升空間。

Typically, a higher basis indicates strong demand for immediate access to the asset, leading to a willingness to pay a premium for futures contracts.

通常，較高的基礎表明對立即獲得資產的需求強烈，從而願意支付期貨合約的保費。

But the low basis suggests that institutions aren’t in a hurry to accumulate bitcoin price bill at these levels.

但是低的基礎表明，機構並不急於在這些水平上積累比特幣價格賬單。

This lack of urgency from futures traders supports the case for a potential pullback.

期貨交易者缺乏緊迫性，支持了潛在回調的情況。

This condition could drive a correction back to $100,000 as large players remain on the sidelines.

隨著大型玩家仍然留在場上，這種情況可能會恢復到100,000美元。

On-Chain Metrics and MVRV Ratio Point to Profit-Taking Risks

鏈上指標和MVRV比率指向獲利風險

Blockchain data reveals a concerning trend: a notable decline in daily active addresses and new wallets interacting with the Bitcoin network.

區塊鏈數據揭示了一個有關趨勢的趨勢：每日活動地址的顯著下降和與比特幣網絡相互作用的新錢包。

Despite this, the price of BTC has continued to climb higher, signaling a bearish divergence. This signals that market participation and price are not growing.

儘管如此，BTC的價格仍在繼續上漲，這表明看跌差異。這表明市場參與和價格沒有增長。

A lack of new entrants and fewer active users implies weakening demand, even as prices touch record levels. This divergence usually foreshadows corrections, especially in overheated markets. This divergence highlights the fragility of the current rally.

缺乏新的進入者和較少的活躍用戶意味著即使價格觸及記錄水平，需求也會減弱。這種差異通常預示了校正，尤其是在過熱的市場中。這種差異突出了當前拉力賽的脆弱性。

Moreover, the MVRV ratio shows that recent buyers have over 10% unrealized profits.

此外，MVRV比率表明，最近的買家擁有超過10％的未實現利潤。

Historically, bitcoin price bills reverse when this metric crosses the 10% to 15% range.

從歷史上看，當該度量標準超過10％至15％的範圍時，比特幣價格賬單會倒轉。

This profit-taking pressure could trigger a fall to $100,000.

這種利潤壓力可能會導致跌至100,000美元。

This analysis provides valuable insights into the potential trajectory of bitcoin price bills in the short term. As the apex approaches, institutions might step in to capitalize on the downturn.

該分析為短期內的比特幣價格賬單的潛在軌跡提供了寶貴的見解。隨著頂點的臨近，機構可能會介入以利用經濟低迷。