比特币（BTC）价格可能会降至100,000美元，因为多个指标表明逆转

比特币价格法案在5月21日飙升，在Coinbase上达到了新的111,903美元的新高点。这种价格变动触发了6.071亿美元的现货ETF流入

Bitcoin price bill surged again on May 21, hitting a new all-time high of $111,903 on Coinbase. This price move triggered $607.1 million in spot ETF outflows, showcasing strong buying interest.

比特币价格法案在5月21日再次飙升，在Coinbase上达到了新的111,903美元的新高点。这一价格转变触发了6.071亿美元的现货ETF流出，展示了强大的购买兴趣。

However, multiple indicators now signal that the Bitcoin price could fall to $100,000 in the short term.

但是，现在多个指标表明，短期内比特币价格可能会降至100,000美元。

Bitcoin Price Gains Meet Weak Volatility

比特币价格收益符合弱波动率

The 30-day Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index sits at a 10-month low of 49.73. This divergence from the strong bitcoin price bill gains is interesting.

30天的比特币隐含波动率指数位于49.73的10个月低点。与强大的比特币价格账单收益相差很有趣。

Usually, volatility tends to rise during periods of strong trends. However, this flatlining segment implies that options market participants lack conviction in the sustainability of the recent upward move.

通常，在强烈趋势时期，波动率往往会上升。但是，这个统一的细分市场意味着，期权市场参与者在最近的向上行动的可持续性中缺乏信念。

Typically, when prices move up or down sharply, traders use options to hedge against potential losses or express extreme bullishness/bearishness through leveraged payoffs.

通常，当价格急剧上升或下降时，交易者使用期权来抵御潜在的损失或通过杠杆回报表达极端的看涨/看跌。

These directional bets would usually be reflected in higher implied volatility. But with this metric remaining low, it suggests that traders aren’t making large-scale bullish or bearish bets.

这些定向下注通常会反映在较高的隐含波动率中。但是，由于这个指标保持较低，这表明交易者没有进行大规模看涨或看跌赌注。

This lack of conviction could render the market more susceptible to swift changes in direction.

缺乏信念会使市场更容易受到迅速变化的方向变化。

If traders aren’t massively bullish or bearish, it may explain why bitcoin price bills are struggling to break out further despite touching new highs.

如果交易者并没有大量看涨或看跌，这可以解释为什么尽管触及了新的高点，但比特币价格账单仍在努力爆发。

But with traders engaging in more neutral to light directional plays, it could also explain why pullbacks are quickly met by buyers or sellers.

但是，随着贸易商从事更中性的方向性比赛，这也可以解释为什么买家或卖家很快就会遇到回调。

Bitcoin price bill gains aren’t being met with optimism from options traders, who aren’t pricing in further significant movement.

比特币价格账单收益并没有对期权交易者的乐观态度感到满意，而期权交易者没有在进一步的重大转移方面定价。

This divergence usually occurs at market tops or bottoms, signaling a potential short-term apex.

这种差异通常发生在市场顶部或底部，表明潜在的短期顶点。

A reversal could follow if momentum weakens further amid meager derivative interest.

如果在微不足道的衍生品兴趣中，动量会进一步削弱，则可能会逆转。

Bitcoin Price Rally Lacks Institutional Backing

比特币价格集会缺乏机构支持

Open Interest on CME for Bitcoin price bill remains weak and below early 2025 levels, revealing weak institutional engagement.

对比特币价格法案的CME开放兴趣仍然很弱，低于2025年初的水平，显示机构参与较弱。

Even with all-time highs, futures activity hasn’t picked up significantly. This lackluster interest from large market participants is evident.

即使有历史新高，期货活动也没有大幅度地提高。大型市场参与者的这种平淡的兴趣显而易见。

Usually, during bull markets or periods of strong price momentum, institutions increase their activity.

通常，在牛市或强劲的价格势头期间，机构增加了其活动。

But this lack of engagement at these price levels indicates that these players aren’t massively bullish and prefer to observe further developments.

但是，在这些价格水平上缺乏参与表明，这些参与者并不是大规模看涨，而是宁愿观察进一步的发展。

The CME annualized basis, comparing futures and spot prices, remains low at around 10%. This signals a narrow premium for holding long positions. It confirms that futures traders expect limited upside in the short term.

比较期货和现货价格的CME年化基础仍然很低，约为10％。这标志着保持长位置的狭窄溢价。它证实了期货交易者预计在短期内有限的上升空间。

Typically, a higher basis indicates strong demand for immediate access to the asset, leading to a willingness to pay a premium for futures contracts.

通常，较高的基础表明对立即获得资产的需求强烈，从而愿意支付期货合约的保费。

But the low basis suggests that institutions aren’t in a hurry to accumulate bitcoin price bill at these levels.

但是低的基础表明，机构并不急于在这些水平上积累比特币价格账单。

This lack of urgency from futures traders supports the case for a potential pullback.

期货交易者缺乏紧迫性，支持了潜在回调的情况。

This condition could drive a correction back to $100,000 as large players remain on the sidelines.

随着大型玩家仍然留在场上，这种情况可能会恢复到100,000美元。

On-Chain Metrics and MVRV Ratio Point to Profit-Taking Risks

链上指标和MVRV比率指向获利风险

Blockchain data reveals a concerning trend: a notable decline in daily active addresses and new wallets interacting with the Bitcoin network.

区块链数据揭示了一个有关趋势的趋势：每日活动地址的显着下降和与比特币网络相互作用的新钱包。

Despite this, the price of BTC has continued to climb higher, signaling a bearish divergence. This signals that market participation and price are not growing.

尽管如此，BTC的价格仍在继续上涨，这表明看跌差异。这表明市场参与和价格没有增长。

A lack of new entrants and fewer active users implies weakening demand, even as prices touch record levels. This divergence usually foreshadows corrections, especially in overheated markets. This divergence highlights the fragility of the current rally.

缺乏新的进入者和较少的活跃用户意味着即使价格触及记录水平，需求也会减弱。这种差异通常预示了校正，尤其是在过热的市场中。这种差异突出了当前拉力赛的脆弱性。

Moreover, the MVRV ratio shows that recent buyers have over 10% unrealized profits.

此外，MVRV比率表明，最近的买家拥有超过10％的未实现利润。

Historically, bitcoin price bills reverse when this metric crosses the 10% to 15% range.

从历史上看，当该度量标准超过10％至15％的范围时，比特币价格账单会倒转。

This profit-taking pressure could trigger a fall to $100,000.

这种利润压力可能会导致跌至100,000美元。

This analysis provides valuable insights into the potential trajectory of bitcoin price bills in the short term. As the apex approaches, institutions might step in to capitalize on the downturn.

该分析为短期内的比特币价格账单的潜在轨迹提供了宝贵的见解。随着顶点的临近，机构可能会介入以利用经济低迷。